Overview Qualcomm shares spiked after the 24 June investor day and then surrendered most of that gain within a month, drifting back toward 170 dollars by mid-July and leaving the stock roughly flat foOverview Qualcomm shares spiked after the 24 June investor day and then surrendered most of that gain within a month, drifting back toward 170 dollars by mid-July and leaving the stock roughly flat fo
Qualcomm Q2 2026 Earnings Preview What to Watch When QCOM Reports on July 29
Overview
Qualcomm shares spiked after the 24 June investor day and then surrendered most of that gain within a month, drifting back toward 170 dollars by mid-July and leaving the stock roughly flat for the year. The source of the disagreement is clear enough. Company guidance for the quarter now closing calls for revenue of 9.2 to 10 billion dollars, down from 10.6 billion in the prior quarter, while management simultaneously doubled its 2029 non-handset revenue target to 40 billion dollars and set a 15 billion dollar AI data center sales goal. One side of the story is a handset business still searching for a bottom. The other is a data center franchise that has yet to book meaningful revenue. The report due after the close on 29 July is the first data point that tests both at once.
Key Takeaways
The accounting convention matters first. The report covering April through June falls in Qualcomm's fiscal third quarter of 2026, since the company's fiscal year ends in late September.
Guidance issued on 29 April calls for revenue of 9.2 to 10 billion dollars and non-GAAP earnings per share of 2.10 to 2.30 dollars. By segment, QCT revenue is guided to 7.9 to 8.5 billion dollars at a 25 to 27 percent pre-tax margin, and QTL to 1.15 to 1.35 billion dollars at a 67 to 71 percent margin. Handset revenue is guided to roughly 4.9 billion dollars, IoT to high single-digit year-on-year growth, and automotive to accelerate to roughly 50 percent year-on-year growth.
Management stated explicitly that China handset revenue should bottom in this quarter and return to sequential growth in the following one. Whether the data supports that call is the most information-dense element of the release.
Three risks dominate: share loss as Apple brings modems in house, demand and policy variables in China, and memory cost inflation weighing on device makers' build plans.
Timing and Reporting Conventions
The Schedule
Per the company's earnings schedule announcement issued on 15 July, fiscal third quarter results will be published on 29 July after the US market close on the investor relations website, followed by a conference call at 1:45 pm Pacific Time. The release will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K.
Fiscal Versus Calendar Quarters
Qualcomm's fiscal year runs one quarter ahead of the calendar. The calendar second quarter covering April to June corresponds to the company's fiscal third quarter of 2026. What Qualcomm calls its fiscal second quarter was already reported on 29 April and covered January to March. That offset is the single most common source of confusion when comparing figures across sources.
What Guidance Actually Says
The Headline Range
Revenue is guided to 9.2 to 10 billion dollars, a midpoint near 9.6 billion, down from 10.6 billion in the prior fiscal quarter. Non-GAAP earnings per share are guided to 2.10 to 2.30 dollars against 2.65 previously. Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected at roughly 2.6 billion dollars.
The sequential decline is not a surprise. Management attributed it on the prior call to memory industry dynamics weighing on handsets and to channel inventory drawdowns among Chinese device makers.
The Segment Detail
QCT revenue is guided to 7.9 to 8.5 billion dollars at a 25 to 27 percent pre-tax margin, against 9.1 billion and 27 percent in the prior quarter. QTL is guided to 1.15 to 1.35 billion dollars at 67 to 71 percent, against 1.4 billion and 72 percent.
The internal divergence within QCT is the more interesting part. Handset revenue is guided to roughly 4.9 billion dollars, IoT to high single-digit growth, and automotive to accelerate to roughly 50 percent year-on-year. In the prior quarter, automotive set a record at 1.326 billion dollars, up 38 percent, while handsets fell 13 percent. The growth engine is rotating from handsets toward automotive and IoT, but the rotation is incomplete and handsets still carry the revenue base.
Against the Prior Quarter
According to the company's fiscal second quarter earnings presentation, revenue was 10.6 billion dollars, down 3 percent year on year, with non-GAAP earnings per share of 2.65 dollars, down 7 percent, and global handset units roughly flat. The company returned 3.7 billion dollars to shareholders, comprising 2.8 billion in repurchases and 945 million in dividends, raised the quarterly dividend from 0.89 to 0.92 dollars for an annualised 3.68, and approved a new 20 billion dollar repurchase authorisation.
That quarter also included a 5.7 billion dollar non-cash GAAP tax benefit from the release of a previously recorded valuation allowance, which has nothing to do with operating performance. Any year-on-year net income comparison needs to strip it out.
Where Consensus Sits and Why It Diverges
Two Sets of Earnings Estimates
Basis matters when comparing forecasts. Per ChartMill's aggregation, consensus for this report sits at 2.27 dollars in earnings per share on 9.85 billion dollars of revenue, near the upper half of the company's non-GAAP guidance range, with the revenue estimate revised down roughly 11 percent over the past three months.
Meanwhile, Barchart's compilation shows analysts expecting 1.53 dollars per share, a 33.2 percent year-on-year decline. The two are not contradictory. One reflects GAAP and the other non-GAAP, which excludes share-based compensation, acquisition-related items and similar adjustments. Mixing them produces opposite conclusions, a hazard worth remembering when headlines land on the evening of the 29th.
Analyst Targets Are Split
Recent rating actions point in different directions. TD Cowen raised its target to 225 dollars from 200 on 13 July, HSBC raised its to 180 from 155 on 15 July, and UBS cut its to 190 from 235 on 17 July while keeping a neutral rating. Per data aggregated by StockAnalysis, 36 analysts carry an average rating of hold with a twelve-month average target of 221.23 dollars.
The dispersion itself is informative. It reflects disagreement about the timing of data center monetisation rather than about the current quarter's operations.
What the Stock Has Already Priced
Per data compiled by 24/7 Wall St, the stock touched a 52-week low near 121.54 dollars in March, rallied sharply around the 24 June investor day, then faded to close at 170.61 on 16 July, down roughly 20 percent over the prior month and up about 0.77 percent year to date. MarketBeat's analysis notes shares have fallen more than 30 percent since May.
In other words, the market has already absorbed a sequentially weaker quarter but has reached no consensus on whether the data center business will convert. That makes the post-print reaction more dependent on guidance and management commentary than on the quarter's own numbers.
Three Storylines Worth Tracking
Whether Handsets Have Bottomed
Management stated that China handset revenue should bottom this fiscal quarter and return to sequential growth in the next. That is a falsifiable claim and the most direct test in this release. What matters is not only whether handset revenue lands near the roughly 4.9 billion dollar guide, but the sequential direction implied for handsets in next quarter's guidance.
The persistence of memory cost pressure deserves equal attention. The prior quarter's handset decline was attributed to memory industry dynamics and Chinese channel drawdowns. If neither has eased, the bottom may slip a quarter.
Whether Automotive and IoT Can Carry the Baton
Automotive is the most visible growth line. Delivering the roughly 50 percent year-on-year growth in guidance would support the target of exiting fiscal 2026 above a 6 billion dollar annualised run rate. IoT's high single-digit growth is more modest but correlates with PCs, wearables and industrial demand, offering a useful cross-check on end markets.
Together, whether those two offset the handset decline determines if QCT can hold the lower bound of its 25 to 27 percent pre-tax margin guide.
Data Center Milestones
Per DatacenterDynamics, chief executive Cristiano Amon confirmed on the prior call that a custom silicon engagement with a large hyperscaler is progressing, with initial shipments slated for December, and described it as a multi-generation relationship.
The 24 June investor day filled in the roadmap. Per EE Times, the plan spans the connectivity portfolio inherited from Alphawave, currently supporting 800G with 1.6T targeted by the end of 2026, custom silicon solutions to lead partners beginning in 2027, and a C1000 server CPU family in 2028 configured with up to 250 Oryon cores running as high as 5GHz on a high-bandwidth compute memory architecture.
Futurum's event recap adds that the company disclosed two hyperscaler custom silicon wins secured over the prior six months, with meaningful revenue starting in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and an accelerator roadmap running from AI200 sampling in fiscal 2026 to AI250 in fiscal 2027 and AI300 in fiscal 2028. What this report needs to confirm is that those dates hold. Any slippage hits valuation assumptions directly.
The Risk Checklist
Apple's In-House Modem
Customer concentration is the most structural exposure. The company has indicated it expects to supply roughly 20 percent of Apple devices launching in autumn 2026, with no business beyond that. Whether the pace of that revenue exit matches the pace of automotive and IoT growth is a central medium-term valuation variable.
China Demand and Policy
China is both the principal demand market and a source of policy uncertainty. Reports in late July indicated China is weighing tighter export controls on AI and semiconductor technology, news that has already moved several chip names including Qualcomm. Management commentary on China demand and policy exposure should be read alongside the quarter's numbers rather than separately.
Memory Costs and Device Builds
Memory pricing and supply feed directly into device makers' bill of materials and inventory behaviour, which transmits into chipset orders. The company named this factor explicitly last quarter, and its resolution sits largely outside management's control.
Why Cross-Asset Investors Should Care
Semiconductor earnings carry information beyond the single name. Qualcomm's data center guidance and the cadence of hyperscaler custom silicon programmes serve as a side indicator of whether the AI capital expenditure cycle is extending, and that cycle correlates closely with risk appetite across asset classes. Crypto assets have not decoupled from US technology equities in 2026, and valuation swings in AI-linked names still transmit into digital asset risk appetite within days.
For investors holding both technology equities and digital assets, two items matter on 29 July: whether the handset bottom claim is supported by data, and whether the data center timeline holds. The first governs near-term fundamentals and the second governs valuation assumptions. Live pricing and market depth for related crypto assets can be tracked on CoinGecko or MEXC for a read on how cross-asset risk appetite responds.
Exclusive View from the MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team
What makes this report consequential is not whether the quarter clears its guide but that it is the first reality check on the investor day narrative. On 24 June the company doubled its 2029 non-handset revenue target to 40 billion dollars and set a 15 billion dollar AI data center sales goal, and the stock spiked. The subsequent month-long retreat says the market wants mid-term evidence before extending credit to long-term targets. The 29 July release is where that evidence begins, particularly on whether first custom silicon shipments remain locked to December.
Two misreadings are likely. The first is treating the sequential revenue decline as fundamental deterioration. It was guided in advance and attributed to memory conditions and channel destocking, making it cyclical rather than structural. The genuinely structural risk is the Apple share exit, whose effect will surface gradually over subsequent quarters. The second is mixing the two earnings conventions. A GAAP estimate near 1.53 dollars coexists with a non-GAAP estimate near 2.27, and comparing the print against the wrong basis produces the opposite conclusion.
What to watch next is the sequential direction implied for handsets in the following quarter's guidance, and any change in management's language about the fiscal first quarter 2027 starting point for data center revenue. Those two items set the pricing framework from here to year end.
For cross-asset markets, the case illustrates something general: when a mature company tries to swap a new narrative for an old engine, the market grants a premium first and demands delivery second. Crypto's own balance-sheet transformation stories are running the same course, and the path from premium to discount looks strikingly similar. The test is identical too, namely whether the new business produces verifiable revenue inside the promised window, not how ambitious the target itself is.
FAQ
When does Qualcomm report
The company will publish fiscal third quarter 2026 results on 29 July 2026 after the US market close on its investor relations website, followed by a conference call at 1:45 pm Pacific Time, with the release furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K. Note that this report covers the April to June calendar period, which falls in Qualcomm's fiscal third quarter because its fiscal year ends in late September.
What has the company guided to
Revenue of 9.2 to 10 billion dollars and non-GAAP earnings per share of 2.10 to 2.30 dollars. By segment, QCT is guided to 7.9 to 8.5 billion dollars at a 25 to 27 percent pre-tax margin and QTL to 1.15 to 1.35 billion dollars at 67 to 71 percent. Handset revenue is guided to roughly 4.9 billion dollars and automotive growth is expected to accelerate to roughly 50 percent year on year.
Why do earnings estimates differ so widely across sources
Because they use different accounting conventions. On a GAAP basis, some compilations show consensus near 1.53 dollars per share, a decline of roughly 33 percent year on year. On a non-GAAP basis, consensus sits near 2.27 dollars, inside the upper half of company guidance. Non-GAAP excludes share-based compensation and acquisition-related items, so the two are not directly comparable and the basis should be confirmed before drawing conclusions.
Is the handset weakness cyclical or structural
Both elements are present. The cyclical component stems from memory industry dynamics and channel destocking among Chinese device makers, with management expecting China handset revenue to bottom this fiscal quarter and return to sequential growth next. The structural component is Apple's in-house modem, with the company expecting to supply roughly 20 percent of devices launching in autumn 2026 and no business beyond that.
When will the data center business contribute revenue
Per management's comments at the June investor day, meaningful revenue starts in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Initial custom silicon shipments are slated for December, and the company disclosed two hyperscaler custom silicon wins secured over the prior six months. The accelerator roadmap runs from AI200 sampling in fiscal 2026 to AI250 in fiscal 2027 and AI300 in fiscal 2028. This report needs to confirm those dates hold.
Where does the stock stand now
Shares touched a 52-week low near 121.54 dollars in March, rallied sharply around the 24 June investor day, then faded, closing at 170.61 on 16 July, down roughly 20 percent over the prior month and close to flat year to date. Analyst targets are split, with recent moves both up to 225 dollars and down to 190, and an overall consensus rating of hold.
What are the most important line items on the day
First, whether handset revenue lands near the roughly 4.9 billion dollar guide. Second, the sequential direction implied for handsets in next quarter's guidance, which tests the bottoming claim. Third, whether automotive delivers roughly 50 percent year-on-year growth. Fourth, any change in management's language on data center timing, which usually matters more to valuation than the first three combined.
How does this report relate to crypto markets
The link runs through risk appetite. The strength of the AI capital expenditure cycle influences technology equity valuations, and crypto assets have retained meaningful correlation with the technology complex through 2026. Data center guidance materially below expectations could weigh on risk assets broadly, and vice versa. The relationship is indirect and does not by itself constitute a directional view on crypto.
Disclaimer
This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice, or any trading recommendation, and it contains no price forecast for any security or digital asset and should not be read as one. Prices of crypto assets, equities and related financial instruments can be highly volatile, and past performance does not indicate future results. Figures are drawn from publicly available materials, company announcements and third-party compilations as of the time of writing. Company guidance and market estimates may change at any time, and actual results may differ materially from guidance. Users should conduct their own research, assess their risk tolerance, and consult licensed professionals where appropriate. The MEXC Crypto Pulse Team accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of the information contained herein.
About the Author
The MEXC Crypto Pulse Team focuses on crypto market trends, on-chain narratives, fintech developments, and digital asset ecosystem research. The team tracks public market data, company announcements, third-party market platforms, and industry news sources to help users better understand market structure, risks, and opportunities.
Research References
Want the fastest access to MEXC's latest updates? Join our official Telegram group now!
Account Verification: Understand KYC | How to Complete KYC
Market Opportunity
Quack AI Price(Q)
--
----
USD
Quack AI (Q) Live Price Chart
Description:Crypto Pulse is powered by AI and public sources to bring you the hottest token trends instantly. For expert insights and in-depth analysis, visit MEXC Learn.
The articles shared on this page are sourced from public platforms and are provided for reference only. They do not represent the position or views of MEXC. All rights belong to James Mitchell. If you believe any content infringes upon the rights of a third party, please contact [email protected] for prompt removal. MEXC does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC. For expert insights and in-depth analysis, visit MEXC Learn.
Learn More About Quack AI
View More
Tesla Holds 11,509 BTC in Q2 Despite $112 Million Bitcoin Loss
Tesla’s Bitcoin update looks negative at first glance. A $112 million digital-asset loss is not the kind of number investors usually ignore. But the more important detail is quieter: Tesla did not
2026/07/23
U.S. Stocks Weekly Report | Jul 11–Jul 17: CPI Plunges 3.5%, Top Three Banks Post Strongest Q2 Ever: Inflation Turning Point Combined with AI Profit Surge Opens Valuation Reset Window for Growth Stocks
On July 17, 2026, a rare macroeconomic combination unfolded intensively within the same week: The US June Consumer price index（CPI） annual rate stood at 3.5%, significantly lower than the expected
2026/07/17
JPM Price Target Hits $418. The Stock Closed at $342.89. Who's Right?
JPMorgan Chase reported the largest quarterly profit in its history on July 14, 2026. The stock opened lower anyway. By the closing bell it had erased the drop and set a record at $342.89, and
2026/07/15
Latest Updates on Quack AI
View More
Ethlabs says committed funds cover 2-3 years of ‘top talent’ hiring and operations
Ethlabs just announced that its committed funding is sufficient to sustain operations and recruit new talent for two to three years, according to a public Q&A the
2026/06/30
Can Quantum Computers Break Bitcoin? The 2026 Answer, Explained
Can quantum computers break Bitcoin? What Q-Day means, why 2026 research shortened the timeline, which wallets are at risk, and how Bitcoin is preparing.
2026/07/03
Tesla Q2 2026 Earnings Date: Release Time, Webcast and Key Metrics
Tesla’s Q2 2026 earnings report is set for Wednesday, July 22, 2026, after market close, with management scheduled to host a live Q&A webcast at 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The Q2 update and webcast will be available through Tesla’s Investor Relations website, with an archived replay expected after the call.
This is not just another Tesla earnings date. Tesla has already reported a stronger-than-expected delivery quarter: in Q2 2026, the company produced 451,758 vehicles, delivered 480,126 vehicles and deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage products.
For traders, the key question is not whether Tesla delivered more vehicles. That part is already known. The real question is whether those deliveries were profitable enough, whether energy storage growth can support the broader Tesla story, and whether management can show that AI, autonomy and robotaxi investments are moving from narrative to measurable business progress.
2026/07/06
HOT
Currently trending cryptocurrencies that are gaining significant market attention
Crypto Prices
The cryptocurrencies with the highest trading volume
Newly Added
Recently listed cryptocurrencies that are available for trading