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Week 1 of August 2026 Reporting Period: July 29 – August 4, 2026 Data as of: August 4, 2026 Core Narrative Over the past week, the crypto market completed a full cycle driven by both the FOMC rateWeek 1 of August 2026 Reporting Period: July 29 – August 4, 2026 Data as of: August 4, 2026 Core Narrative Over the past week, the crypto market completed a full cycle driven by both the FOMC rate

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MEXC Alpha Trader Weekly Research | Rate Hike Fears Loom as BTC's $63K Support Comes Under Pressure. Can Jobs Week Turn the Tide?

Aug 6, 2026

#Weekly Research Report

BTC$64,628.12+0.86%

4$0.010982+11.18%

67$0.0015-1.18%

Week 1 of August 2026

Reporting Period: July 29 – August 4, 2026

Data as of: August 4, 2026

Core Narrative

Over the past week, the crypto market completed a full cycle driven by both the FOMC rate decision and geopolitical developments: pressure before the decision, a post-decision rally, a sharp sell-off triggered by geopolitical fears, and a weekend recovery. Bitcoin repeatedly fluctuated between $62,000 and $65,000, trading at approximately $63,788 as of August 4, without establishing a clear direction.

The FOMC delivered a "hawkish pause," pushing the probability of a September rate hike up to 63%. In the early hours of July 30, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking its fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. Three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike, the first time since 2016 that an FOMC policy meeting had recorded three dissenting votes in the same direction. Fed Chair Warsh acknowledged that inflation "remains elevated" and reiterated that the 2% inflation target does not include any "implicit tolerance for higher inflation." Markets interpreted the decision as a "hawkish pause." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate hike rose to 63.2% following the announcement.

Geopolitical developments dominated weekend trading, with Trump's hardline remarks triggering a sharp sell-off. On August 1, Trump took a tough stance on Iran during a Cabinet meeting, stating, "We will hit them very hard. At some point, they will say, 'We can't take it anymore.'" CNN reported that the U.S. was planning a new round of strikes on Iran as early as the weekend. The remarks contrasted sharply with the "very friendly talks" held a week earlier. Bitcoin fell rapidly from above $65,000 to approximately $62,913, down 2.78% over 24 hours. Total crypto market capitalization declined 2.09% to $2.16 trillion, while Ethereum fell 2.79% to $1,864.

ETF flows started August on a relatively strong note, but Bitcoin and Ethereum diverged. On August 4, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $170 million, while Spot Ethereum ETFs posted net outflows of $11.4 million on the same day. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $79.36 million in net inflows, compared with around $30.44 million for Ethereum ETFs. Bitcoin and Ethereum are increasingly attracting distinctly different investor groups.

On the macro front, the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report, due on August 7, will be the most critical data point next week. Economists expect the economy to add 85,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged at its July meeting, the employment report will play an important role in shaping the Fed's future monetary policy path.

Overall, the market remains caught in a tug-of-war among three forces: the FOMC's hawkish pause, recurring geopolitical tensions, and diverging ETF flows. Bitcoin is consolidating between $62,000 and $65,000 as markets await Friday's nonfarm payrolls report to break the deadlock.

I. Key Developments in the Crypto Market

1. Institutional Flows: ETFs Snap a Two-Month Losing Streak in July, but Selling Pressure Emerges at Month-End

In July, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs followed a "recovery followed by renewed volatility" pattern, recording $172.4 million in net inflows for the month and ending two consecutive months of record outflows in May and June. U.S. Spot Ethereum ETFs performed even more strongly, attracting $365 million in net inflows, roughly twice the amount recorded by Bitcoin ETFs, and extending their net inflow streak to a fourth consecutive week.

Flows reversed sharply in the final week of July. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $61.53 million in weekly net outflows, ending a three-week inflow streak. The reversal was particularly pronounced over the final two trading days of the month. Following the July 30 FOMC decision, funds returned sharply, with daily net inflows reaching $233.1 million, including $183.4 million into BlackRock's IBIT. However, the following day saw $265.4 million in net outflows, the largest single-day outflow since July 13, led by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC.

Entering August, fund flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs diverged further. On August 4, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $170 million in net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $111 million, while U.S. Spot Ethereum ETFs posted $11.4 million in net outflows on the same day. The two asset classes are increasingly attracting distinctly different investor groups.

On-chain supply pressure is rising. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin exchange reserves had recovered to approximately 2.72 million BTC by early August, the highest level since July, while exchange netflows had also turned positive at nearly 2,900 BTC. Long-term holder behavior shifted significantly: exchange inflows from coins held for three to five years rose approximately 595% above the quarterly baseline, while inflows from coins held for five to seven years surged 1,016%. On August 1, short-term holders transferred more than 32,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss, marking one of the largest loss-driven selling events in the past 30 days. Meanwhile, analysts estimate that miners sold approximately 1,774 BTC last week, while CryptoQuant's miner shutdown indicator suggests that some miners have fallen below breakeven levels. Together, these signals point to increasing market supply pressure rather than continued tightening.

2. Price Performance: BTC Remains Range-Bound Between $62,000 and $65,000

July 29 (Wednesday), one day before the FOMC decision. Bitcoin traded near $63,900-$64,000, rebounding approximately 1% from the previous day. Trading remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Polymarket showed a 34% probability that BTC would close within the $64,000-$66,000 range that day.

July 30 (Thursday), the day of the FOMC decision. Bitcoin opened at $63,902.90. After the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep rates unchanged in a 9-3 vote, Bitcoin climbed as high as $64,838.92. Intraday volatility was elevated, with BTC rising from $63,670 to $64,325 before retreating to $63,266.

July 31 (Friday), a rally followed by a pullback. Bitcoin briefly reached $65,300 in early Asian trading before retreating rapidly. It traded around $63,000 for the day, down approximately 3%. Despite the decline, Bitcoin still recorded a monthly gain of nearly 10% in July. The intraday low was approximately $62,400.

August 1 (Saturday), Trump's hardline remarks triggered a sharp sell-off. Following Trump's tough comments on Iran, Bitcoin fell from $65,000 to approximately $62,000. As of 7:50 AM Vietnam time, BTC was trading at around $62,913. It briefly fell below $63,000 and tested support near $62,410.

August 2 (Sunday), weak range-bound trading. Bitcoin traded between $62,275 and $63,634, changing hands at approximately $63,234. Market sentiment remained under pressure from geopolitical uncertainty, with BTC edging down 0.09% over 24 hours.

August 3 (Monday), a modest rebound. Bitcoin traded at approximately $63,838, up 0.93% over 24 hours. It reached an intraday level of $63,697. During Asian trading hours, BTC briefly fell below $63,000 to around $62,841.

August 4 (Tuesday), a low-volume rebound. Bitcoin broke above $64,000 to trade at $64,044.60, gaining 0.55% on the day. It climbed above $64,100 intraday and regained the $63,000 level.

Trading Pair	Weekly Change	Price Range
Bitcoin (BTC)	Approx. -0.5% to 0%	$62,250 – $65,300
Ethereum (ETH)	Approx. -2% to -3%	$1,840 – $1,950
Solana (SOL)	Approx. -3% to -4%	$72 – $78
XRP	Approx. 0% to +1%	$1.04 – $1.13
Total Market Cap	Approx. 0% to +1%	$2.16T – $2.27T

Data sources: MEXC, CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko

Technical Outlook: As of August 4, Bitcoin had rebounded from a low near $62,000 to around $64,000 and was consolidating within the $63,500-$64,000 range. Key short-term support lies between $62,200 and $62,800, while resistance is located at $63,500-$63,550. A confirmed breakout could open the way toward $64,300-$65,000. The 14-day RSI stands at approximately 55-56, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD has formed a bullish crossover on the four-hour chart, pointing to improving short-term momentum. However, trading volume has not increased significantly. Overall, Bitcoin remains in a narrow trading range without a clear directional signal. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report may serve as the key catalyst to break the deadlock.

3. Total Market Capitalization Stands at Approximately $306.3 Billion as the Contraction Continues

For the week ending August 2 (July 27-August 2), total stablecoin market capitalization stood at approximately $306.3 billion, up around 0.10% from $306.0 billion the previous week. Over a longer time horizon, however, total stablecoin supply has declined by approximately $15 billion from its mid-May peak of around $322.1 billion, marking the largest contraction since the Terra collapse in 2022.

Major Stablecoin Performance: USDT's market capitalization stood at approximately $183.2 billion, accounting for 59.81% of the total stablecoin market, down around 0.43% from $184.0 billion the previous week. USDC's market capitalization was approximately $71.95 billion, representing a 23.50% share, down around 0.87% from $72.58 billion the previous week. Since May, the combined market capitalization of the two largest stablecoins has fallen by more than $15 billion, with USDT declining from approximately $189.0 billion to $183.2 billion and USDC falling from its March peak of around $80.0 billion to approximately $72.0 billion.

Structural divergence is intensifying. Total stablecoin market capitalization fell 1.6% in Q2 to $305.1 billion, marking the first quarterly contraction since Q3 2023. Yield-bearing on-chain stablecoins faced a wave of redemptions, with USDS shrinking by $2.0 billion, or 16.4%, and USDe contracting by $1.4 billion, or 24.4%, primarily because DeFi yields had fallen below risk-free rates. Meanwhile, compliant stablecoins such as Global Dollar (USDG) grew against the trend. Following the GENIUS Act's prohibition on payment stablecoins paying yield to holders, capital is shifting from yield-bearing stablecoins toward tokenized U.S. Treasury products.

Exchange liquidity continues to tighten. Since the beginning of 2026, centralized exchanges have recorded significant cumulative net outflows of stablecoins. In July alone, major trading platforms saw an estimated $2.2 billion in stablecoin net outflows. As stablecoins continue to leave exchanges, the market's available "dry powder" for purchases is shrinking further. The continued decline in on-chain and exchange stablecoin reserves suggests that the current market rebound is being driven more by the leveraged use of existing capital than by fresh liquidity inflows.

II. Global Asset Performance

1. Equity Markets: Earnings Season Drives Trading as the Three Major Indexes Rebound After Early Weakness

U.S. stocks followed a V-shaped trajectory this week, driven by the FOMC decision and earnings reports from major technology companies, rebounding for several consecutive sessions after a sharp sell-off on July 29.

At the start of the week, market sentiment remained tense ahead of the FOMC decision, while continued weakness in chip stocks pushed all three major indexes lower. On July 29, the Dow closed down 1,153.1 points, or 2.19%, at 51,594.14. The Nasdaq fell 1.74% to 24,442.94, while the S&P 500 declined 1.52% to 7,316.15. Chip stocks were the biggest drag, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 5.33% on the day and falling 25% from its June peak, technically entering bear-market territory. Memory-chip stocks were hit particularly hard: SanDisk dropped more than 7%, Micron Technology fell nearly 10%, and Intel declined over 5%.

Following the July 30 FOMC decision, market sentiment recovered rapidly. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in a 9-3 vote. Although the decision itself leaned hawkish, the removal of near-term uncertainty, combined with Microsoft's better-than-expected earnings, triggered a broad rally in technology stocks. The Dow rose 1.19% to 52,208.06, the S&P 500 gained 1.66% to 7,437.63, and the Nasdaq surged 2.78% to 25,122.18. Microsoft jumped 15.51%, marking its largest single-day gain in nearly 18 years. Memory-chip stocks also staged a rare breakout, with SanDisk soaring 26% and Micron gaining more than 18%.

Entering August, signs of easing geopolitical tensions further lifted risk appetite. On August 3, all three major indexes posted strong gains. The Dow rose 1.32% to 53,178.41, setting a new record closing high. The S&P 500 gained 1.48% to 7,600.50, approaching its all-time high, while the Nasdaq surged 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Magnificent Seven Index climbed 3.6%, marking its best single-day performance since March 31. Microsoft gained approximately 25% over three trading sessions, Meta rose more than 6%, and Google advanced over 4%.

Index	Weekly Change	Key Drivers	On-Chain Mapping
Nasdaq Composite Index	Approx. +2.7%	Microsoft's earnings beat expectations, sparking a rebound in tech stocks	QQQON/USDT
S&P 500 Index	Approx. +1.7%	Market sentiment recovered following the FOMC decision, pushing the index close to its record high	SPYON/USDT
Dow Jones Industrial Average	Approx. +1.9%	Closed at a new record high on August 3	US30USDT

2. Geopolitical Risk Premium Surges Before Unwinding Sharply, Sending Oil Prices on a Roller-Coaster Ride

The central theme in commodity markets this week remained the back-and-forth in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Oil prices experienced sharp swings, while gold and silver initially weakened before rebounding under the combined pressure of fading geopolitical risk premiums and rising rate hike expectations.

Crude Oil: On July 29, continued U.S. strikes on Iran and disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz pushed WTI September futures up 6.56% to settle at $84.46 per barrel, with an intraday range of $79.92-$85.57. Brent September futures surged 7.91% to settle at $90.74 per barrel, trading between $86.35 and $91.17. Geopolitical risk premiums then unwound sharply as signs of renewed U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement emerged. On August 4, international oil prices continued to fall. WTI September futures dropped 5.11% to settle at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent fell below $81 per barrel. WTI briefly declined to $75.867 per barrel intraday, down 5.57%. Trump said negotiations with Iran were underway and that the Strait of Hormuz could "reopen by tomorrow at the latest." However, tanker-tracking data showed that Saudi crude exports fell by 460,000 barrels per day month over month in July due to threats affecting transit through both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, suggesting that a full recovery in shipping activity may still take time.

Gold: Gold prices staged a V-shaped rebound this week. On July 29, ahead of the FOMC decision, rising rate hike expectations and a stronger U.S. dollar pushed Spot gold briefly below $4,000 per ounce, while the most active August Comex contract fell as low as $3,993.80. After the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep rates unchanged, gold rebounded rapidly. The Comex contract recovered to $4,080.80 per ounce, gaining approximately 1% on the day, while Spot gold rose 1.3% to $4,081.10 per ounce. The rebound continued into August. On August 4, Spot gold gained 0.53% to $4,076.90 per ounce.

Silver: Silver showed greater sensitivity than gold this week, delivering a stronger rebound. On July 29, Comex September silver futures jumped 2.2% to $58.78 per ounce, while Spot silver gained 2.5%. On August 4, Spot silver rose 2.13% to $59.40 per ounce. After holding support at $55, silver continued to recover, with resistance near $64.

Asset	Weekly Performance	Key Events	On-Chain Mapping
WTI Crude Oil	$76 – $86 /barrel	7/29: Escalating US-Iran tensions drove prices higher. 8/4: Bessent hinted at a potential US-Iran protocol, triggering a concentrated release of the geopolitical premium.	OIL(WTI)USDT
Brent Crude Oil	$79 – $92 /barrel	7/29: Prices pulled back after spiking to $91.17, with shifting geopolitical dynamics driving volatility.	OIL(BRENT)USDT
Gold	$4,040 – $4,150 /oz	Initially pressured by rate-hike expectations ahead of the FOMC decision; subsequently rebounded as market sentiment improved following the decision to hold rates steady.	GOLD(XAUT)USDT GOLD(PAXG)USDT GOLD(XAUT)USDC GOLD(PAXG)USDC
Silver	$57 – $60 /oz	Industrial demand concerns initially exacerbated declines; however, Silver's higher elasticity compared to Gold facilitated a subsequent rebound in line with gold prices.	SILVER(XAG)USDT

3. Bond Market: Curve Steepening Intensifies as 30-Year Yield Hits Near 19-Year High

The defining feature of the bond market this week was a pronounced steepening of the yield curve. Short-end yields declined as expectations for further rate hikes moderated, while long-end yields climbed amid growing inflation concerns and a rising term premium.

FOMC Decision Drives Market Steepening. On July 30, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold interest rates steady, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since 2016. Following the announcement, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by approximately 4 basis points. In contrast, the 30-year yield surged by about 12 basis points, breaking above 5.20% to reach its highest level since 2007. The 10-year yield also rose more than 7 basis points to 4.70%, while the 30-year yield maintained its position above 5.20%. This divergence signals a market repricing of long-term inflation expectations: short-end investors are betting on a pause in Fed policy, while long-end investors are increasingly pricing in the risk of uncontrolled inflation.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached a 19-year high. Over the week of July 24-31, Treasury yields moved higher overall: the 2-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.28%, the 10-year yield rose 6 basis points to 4.75%, and the 30-year yield climbed 11 basis points to 5.27%. The 30-year yield briefly touched a cycle high of 5.27% intraday, its highest level since 2007.

On August 3, easing geopolitical tensions pushed yields lower across the curve. After Trump canceled plans for strikes on Iran, oil prices plunged more than 6%, easing inflation concerns at the margin. The 10-year Treasury yield fell approximately 6 basis points to 4.68%, while the 30-year yield declined 3.7 basis points to 5.238%.

On August 4, yields rebounded modestly. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.708%, up 2 basis points. The 2-year yield stood at 4.264%, up less than 1 basis point, while the 30-year yield increased 2 basis points to 5.254%. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields widened to approximately 44 basis points.

Institutions have sharply raised their long-term Treasury yield forecasts. JPMorgan increased its year-end 2026 forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 4.70% to 4.85% and its forecast for the 30-year yield from 5.20% to 5.40%, recommending positions that benefit from further yield-curve steepening. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays hold similar views.

MEXC's tokenized Treasury product TLTON/USDT, which tracks the TLT ETF, provides users with a convenient way to trade expectations for long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The TLT ETF recently had a net asset value of approximately $84 and a 30-day SEC yield of 5.03%. International ETF token pairs, including EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT, are also available on the platform.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key Themes

Topic 1: FOMC's "Hawkish Pause": Rare 9-3 Split Sends September Rate Hike Odds Soaring to 67%

The July 29-30 FOMC meeting was the most divided policy meeting of the current cycle. The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking its fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented, calling for an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike. This marked the first FOMC policy meeting since 2016 to record three dissenting votes in the same direction, sending a strong signal that hawkish forces within the Committee are consolidating. After the meeting, Fed Chair Warsh described the division vividly, saying that he had "asked for a proper family argument and certainly got one."

Although rates were ultimately left unchanged, markets interpreted the decision as a "hawkish pause." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September had risen to 67.2% as of August 4, while the probability of no change stood at just 32.8%. One week before the meeting, markets had priced in less than a 53% chance of a September hike. Within a week, as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns, the probability briefly surged to 82%. From a broader perspective, the renewed rate hike expectations followed a clear transmission chain: geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, lifting energy inflation expectations and prompting markets to reprice the rate path.

Impact on Crypto Assets: A "hawkish pause" means no rate cuts or additional liquidity injections in the near term. A prolonged high-rate environment continues to weigh on the valuations of non-yielding risk assets, while the steadily rising probability of a September rate hike means markets are likely to price in this expectation over the coming weeks. This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will be a key test of whether the labor market remains strong enough to support another rate hike. If the data point to continued employment strength, the probability of a September hike could rise above 70%, placing BTC under renewed macro-driven valuation pressure.

Topic 2: U.S.-Iran Conflict Drives Risk Sentiment: Oil Price Swings Put BTC's $62,000 Support to the Test

The biggest geopolitical variable this week remained the back-and-forth in the U.S.-Iran conflict. On July 29, multiple factors drove a sharp surge in oil prices. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan, bringing the U.S.-Iran ceasefire to an end after just four days. U.S. and Saudi forces also carried out joint strikes on "Iran-backed" targets in Iraq. Meanwhile, EIA inventories fell to their lowest level since 2018, while Cushing stocks dropped below the operational warning threshold. WTI crude surged 6.56% that day to $84.46 per barrel, briefly reaching $85.57 intraday.

However, the U.S.-Iran situation took a dramatic turn during the week. On August 1, the Saudi crown prince spoke with Trump by phone, expressed concern over plans for large-scale strikes on Iran, and urged the U.S. not to attack. On August 3, Trump said negotiations with Iran were underway and that the Strait of Hormuz could "reopen by tomorrow at the latest." Trump described a two-stage negotiation process: reopening the Strait of Hormuz first, followed by "denuclearization." Iran, however, denied that talks were taking place, revealing a clear discrepancy between the two sides' accounts.

Impact on Crypto Assets: The shifting U.S.-Iran situation fed directly into the crypto market. After Trump's hawkish remarks on August 1, BTC fell sharply from $65,000 to approximately $62,000, down 2.78% over 24 hours. When signs of geopolitical easing emerged on August 3, all three major U.S. stock indexes rallied, with the Dow reaching a record high, and BTC also rebounded. Beyond Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations will be another key driver of market risk appetite. If talks collapse and the conflict escalates again, oil prices could climb back above $85, further lifting inflation expectations and the probability of a rate hike, creating a dual headwind for crypto assets.

Topic 3: ETF Flows Diverge: BTC Attracts $170 Million as ETH Sees $11.4 Million in Outflows

On August 4, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs showed a clear divergence in fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $170 million, while Spot Ethereum ETFs posted net outflows of $11.4 million on the same day, ending a two-day inflow streak. The two asset classes are attracting distinctly different investor groups.

Bitcoin ETFs quickly regained their ability to attract capital after recording a sizeable $265.4 million outflow on July 31, indicating relatively stable institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure. Ethereum ETF flows, however, have been more volatile. Despite strong net inflows of $365 million in July, flows turned noticeably uneven after the start of August. This divergence reflects different institutional allocation strategies toward the two assets. Bitcoin is more often viewed as a macro hedge and continues to attract steady buying amid uncertainty, while Ethereum is more sensitive to shifts in market sentiment and risk appetite.

Market Implications: The return of sizeable Bitcoin ETF inflows in early August indicates strong institutional buying interest around the $62,000-$63,000 range. However, simultaneous outflows from Ethereum ETFs suggest that capital is being structurally reallocated between the two assets rather than flowing into crypto assets broadly. If this divergence persists, Bitcoin could outperform Ethereum. ETF flows following Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will be a key indicator of whether this trend continues.

IV. Key Market Hotspots

Rank	Core Keywords	Driving Logic	Related Assets
1	FOMC Votes 9-3 to Hold Rates Steady	Three dissenting votes were cast—the first occurrence since 2016. Markets currently estimate over a 63% probability of a rate hike in September.	BTC/USDT
2	Trump's Hawkish Remarks on Iran	Driven by geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin rapidly corrected from $65,000 to $62,000 on August 1.	BTC/USDT
3	Bitcoin ETFs Record $172M Net Inflow in July	This marks the end of two consecutive months of net outflows, although potential selling pressure emerged toward month-end.	BTC/USDT
4	Ethereum ETFs See $365M Net Inflow in July	Net inflows were approximately double those of Bitcoin, with recent performance remaining robust.	ETH/USDT
5	Dow Jones Closes at Record High	Closed at 53,178.41 points on August 3.	US30USDT
6	Microsoft Earnings Surge Shares by 15.5%	On July 30, Microsoft posted its largest single-day gain in nearly 18 years. The "Magnificent Seven" tech index rose 3.6%, marking its best performance since March 31.	QQQON/USDT

V. Key Focus Areas for the Coming Week

Financial Calendar (Aug 5–Aug 11, SGT)

Date	Event/Indicator	Market Impact	Tokenized Underlying Asset
August 5 (Wed)	AMD Earnings Release	As chip earnings season continues, guidance on AI chip demand will significantly influence sentiment in the semiconductor sector.	QQQON/USDT
August 5 (Wed)	U.S. June JOLTs Job Openings	Provides key signals regarding labor market demand.	BTC/USDT
Aug 6 (Thu) 20:15	U.S. July ADP Employment Change	A leading indicator preceding the Nonfarm Payrolls data.	BTC/USDT
Aug 7 (Fri) 20:30	U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls Report	Forecasts suggest job gains of 80-85K and an unemployment rate near 4.3% (previous figure: 57K). Strong data may reinforce expectations of a September rate hike, bearing negatively on BTC; weak data could alleviate rate-hike pressure, proving bullish for risk assets.	BTC/USDT, TLTON/USDT
Aug 7 (Fri) 20:30	U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Aug 1)	High-frequency data for monitoring labor market health.	BTC/USDT
August 7 (Friday)	SpaceX First Quarterly Earnings Post-Listing	Market focus is on revenue and profitability metrics; this marks the first earnings guidance since SPCX's listing.	SPCXUSDT
Ongoing Tracking	U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz Protocol	Bessent indicated a protocol could be reached within 4-5 days. While Iran has denied this, the U.S. emphasizes that negotiations are ongoing. A successful agreement could lower oil prices, cool inflation expectations, and indirectly benefit risk assets.	OIL(WTI)USDT, OIL(BRENT)USDT
Ongoing Tracking	ETF Fund Flows	Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $170 million on Aug 4. Monitor whether this inflow trend sustains.	BTC/USDT
Ongoing Tracking	Battle for the $63,000 Level	The founder of 10x Research noted that if Bitcoin's August closing price remains above $63,000, it may confirm a bear market bottom.	BTC/USDT

VI. Platform Updates

1. MEXC Launches the "Earnings Season RealStocks Trading Challenge" With a $1 Million Prize Pool

On August 3, MEXC officially launched the Earnings Season: RealStocks Rally, running from August 3 at 10:00 (UTC) to August 24 at 10:00 (UTC), with a total prize pool of $1 million. Users can trade U.S. stocks through RealStocks at zero fees, and the stock with the highest trading volume during the event will be selected as the final reward asset. New users who complete their first deposit can share a $100,000 welcome reward pool. After completing their first stock trade, users can participate in a $500,000 stock reward pool. Users can also earn $5 worth of stock rewards for each friend they invite who completes their first stock trade.

2. MEXC Leads Across Multiple Metrics in TokenInsight's July Liquidity Report

On August 4, TokenInsight released its July 2026 Crypto Exchange Liquidity Report. MEXC ranked first in near-touch order book depth for Bitcoin and Ethereum Futures and also led in silver Futures depth. In the Spot market, MEXC recorded $910,000 in cumulative trading depth within a 0.01% spread, nearly matching the top-ranked exchange in the sample at $920,000. The median slippage for a $100,000 Bitcoin sell order was just 0.004%, among the lowest in the sample. In the Futures market, MEXC's combined BTC and ETH cumulative depth within a 0.03% range reached $15.71 million, the highest in the sample. Silver Futures depth within a 0.01% range was approximately $400,000, about twice that of the second-ranked exchange.

3. Stock Futures Cash Dividend Settlement

On July 31, MEXC completed cash dividend settlements for three Stock Futures: TXNUSDT (Texas Instruments, approximately $1.42 per share), MSUSDT (Morgan Stanley, approximately $1.15 per share), and STRCUSDT (Strategy preferred stock, approximately $0.50 per share). At 07:30, the relevant contracts entered reduce-only mode. At 08:00, a one-time special funding fee settlement was carried out based on position snapshots, and normal trading resumed at 08:05. Users holding long positions received the applicable dividend amount based on their position size, while users holding short positions were charged the corresponding amount. Both adjustments were immediately reflected in their accounts through funding fee settlements. Users with high leverage should note that dividend-related deductions may reduce their margin ratio and, in extreme cases, increase liquidation risk. Users are advised to check their margin levels or adjust their positions in advance.

Under this settlement mechanism, users holding long positions will receive dividends proportional to their position size, while users with short positions will be charged the corresponding amount. All adjustments will be credited or deducted immediately via Funding Fees. Users employing high leverage should exercise caution: dividend deductions may reduce the margin ratio, potentially leading to liquidation in extreme cases. It is advisable to monitor your margin levels in advance and adjust positions accordingly.

Disclaimer: This report is for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto asset prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical events and macroeconomic developments may have a significant impact on the market. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs mentioned in this report are presented solely for objective data purposes and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.

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This article is provided by MEXC for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets involve significant risk. Please conduct independent research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of MEXC or its affiliates.