Rocket Lab (RKLB) Stock: What to Expect from Earnings on Thursday

TLDR

• Rocket Lab reports Q1 2026 earnings after market close on May 7
• Options traders expect a 13.88% move in RKLB stock following results
• Wall Street expects revenue of ~$190.9 million, up 50%+ year-over-year
• EPS loss expected at $0.04–$0.07 per share, improved from -$0.12 a year ago
• Average analyst price target is $83.31–$89.00, rating is “Moderate Buy”

Rocket Lab reports Q1 2026 earnings after the bell on Thursday, May 7, at 5:00 PM ET. RKLB stock is currently trading near $77, giving the company a market cap of around $43.9 billion.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB

Options traders are pricing in a 13.88% swing in either direction following the report. That’s well above Rocket Lab’s average post-earnings move of 4.65% over the past four quarters.

Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $190.99 million for the quarter, up more than 50% year-over-year. The consensus EPS estimate sits at a loss of $0.04 to $0.07 per share, an improvement from the $0.12 loss reported in Q1 2025.

The headline numbers may not be the main event this quarter. Investors will be watching closely for updates on the Neutron rocket program.

Neutron is a 43-meter, partially reusable rocket designed for satellite launches and cargo missions. It’s expected to launch in late 2026 or early 2027. A successful Neutron program could put Rocket Lab in direct competition with SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

Margins and Backlog in Focus

Margins will also be closely watched. Rocket Lab’s GAAP gross margin came in at 34.4% in 2025, and the company still needs steady improvement to reach profitability.

The company ended Q4 2025 with a record backlog of $1.85 billion. Investors will want to see signs that backlog is converting into revenue growth.

Insider Selling and Institutional Activity

On the insider front, CEO Peter Beck sold 18,857 of his holdings on March 2 at $69.59 per share. CFO Adam Spice also sold 62,744 of his holdings the same day, for roughly $4.37 million.

In total, insiders have sold $16.49 million worth of stock over the past 90 days. Corporate insiders now hold 8.40% of the company.

Institutional investors have been moving in the opposite direction. Alliancebernstein increased its position by 818.8% in Q3. Amundi raised its stake by 308.4% over the same period.

State Street, Deutsche Bank, and Renaissance Technologies have also added to their positions. Institutional investors now hold 71.78% of RKLB stock.

On the analyst side, Needham cut its price target from $110 to $95 but kept a Buy rating. Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an Equal Weight and a $60 target. Roth MKM raised its target from $90 to $100 with a Buy.

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating with an $85 target. The average price target across analysts is $83.31, with a range of roughly $60 to $100.

RKLB carries a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating from 17 analysts — two Strong Buys, nine Buys, five Holds, and one Sell.

The stock has traded between $20.23 and $99.58 over the past 12 months. Its 50-day moving average sits at $72.14 and the 200-day at $68.10.

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