Bitcoin’s price history follows a rhythm that rarely breaks, according to crypto commentator Levi Rietveld. In a recent video, he laid out the four-year cycle that has defined every major Bitcoin run since 2011, then used it to make a specific call on XRP.
Rietveld traced Bitcoin’s first major run from 2011 through mid-2013, when prices climbed steadily before the coin eventually hit $1,000. The bear market that followed pulled Bitcoin down toward $100.
A similar bull run came next, ending around 2018, before another drawdown set in. He said each bull cycle tends to run about 2 years, while bear cycles last between 12 and 14 months. The shortest one, he noted, lasted closer to 11 months.
Every cycle has repeated this same shape, Rietveld said. Bitcoin’s worst bear market erased 90% of its value, a low he placed at the 2015 cycle bottom. He described the current downturn as milder by comparison. Bitcoin has dropped close to 50% from its highs this cycle, well short of that historic worst-case scenario. Rietveld called this a fortunate outcome, as investors can now accumulate more easily.
Rietveld estimated Bitcoin could bottom near $50,000 in this cycle. At that level, he said XRP would likely trade around $1, possibly a little lower. He treated this point in the cycle as a buying opportunity, saying “not buying now is probably a huge mistake” in his view.
He also tied the bottom to a timeline. Based on the typical length of past bear markets, Rietveld estimated the current cycle could find its floor within the next 4 months. Other analysts have set even deeper targets of $28,000 for BTC and $0.6 for XRP. Many market participants expect the downturn to continue for some time before a reversal.
Rietveld’s outlook ties XRP’s price directly to Bitcoin’s broader trajectory rather than treating it as an independent move. If Bitcoin bottoms near $50,000, his framework points to roughly $1 for XRP at that same moment.
Rietveld presented both as the likely outcome of a cycle that has repeated itself with consistency since 2011. Whether the next 4 months confirm that pattern will determine if his call holds up against the same cyclical logic he used to build it.
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