Major traders expect oil glut into 2026 as output, weak demand drive prices lower
Oil prices are now slumping to their lowest point since the 2020 pandemic crash. Brent crude crashed below $60 per barrel and dropped over 2% today, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is barely holding above $53, according to data from Google Finance as of press time.
This is the second week in a row of losses for the oil market, and every major trader is betting on this surplus sticking around. Trafigura Group even expects Brent to stay stuck in the low $50s until the middle of 2026.
The core problem? Way too much supply. OPEC+ brought back barrels too fast, and other producers jumped in too. Add in the fact that global demand has been pretty weak, and you’ve got a full-blown glut.
With Christmas and New Year right around the corner, oil trading volume has thinned out. Fewer people at the desks means smaller trades are moving prices more than usual. On Friday, Brent’s traded volume was way below normal levels for that time of day.
And the drop isn’t being helped by sanctions either. The UK just slapped three minor Russian producers with new restrictions, while the U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled.
Prices have fallen sharply, but not because there’s no risk. Supply from Venezuela and Russia could easily get hit. But that just hasn’t been enough to fight the overwhelming glut. The mindset right now is clear: too much oil, not enough demand.
US tech stocks bounce as bond yields edge up
Outside the oil pits, Wall Street had a better start to Friday. S&P 500 futures rose by 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.2%, and the Dow Jones dropped just 22 points. It followed a decent Thursday session, where all three indexes ended higher.
Oracle has surged over 4% premarket, after news that TikTok would sell its U.S. arm to a new group that includes Larry Ellison and Silver Lake.
The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.4% as tech stocks clawed back earlier losses. The S&P 500 and Dow also snapped a four-day losing streak.
Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 3 basis points to 4.149%, while the 2-year climbed to 3.477%. The 30-year yield pushed up to 4.835%. That’s a clear signal that inflation fears aren’t gone. For reference, 1 basis point = 0.01%, and remember, bond yields go up when prices drop.
Here’s where U.S. yields stood Friday:
- 1-month: 3.622% (+0.009)
- 3-month: 3.610% (–0.003)
- 6-month: 3.595% (+0.001)
- 1-year: 3.495% (+0.002)
- 2-year: 3.477% (+0.017)
- 10-year: 4.149% (+0.033)
- 30-year: 4.835% (+0.035)
In the Asia-Pacific, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.03% at 49,507.21, and the Topix rose 0.8% to 3,383.66. The yen dropped 0.33% to 156.06 per dollar, and Japan’s 10-year at 2.022%, the highest since 1999, and the 20-year at 2.962%, per Google Finance data.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi rose 0.65% to 4,020.55, while the Kosdaq jumped 1.55% to 915.27. Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.39% to 8,621.40. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.75%, and China’s CSI 300 gained 0.34%, ending at 4,568.18.
Precious metals were mostly steady. Gold hovered at $4,327.33 an ounce, slightly up on the week. It hit a record above $4,381 back in October.
Silver jumped 0.9% to $66.08, near its all-time high of $66.89. Platinum edged down, while palladium rose 0.6%. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
In Europe, stocks were mixed:
- CAC 40 (France): 8,142.08 (–0.11%)
- FTSE MIB (Italy): 44,626.54 (+0.37%)
- FTSE 100 (UK): 9,838.45 (+0.01%)
- DAX (Germany): 24,185.72 (–0.06%)
- IBEX 35 (Spain): 17,119.40 (–0.08%)
- STOXX Europe 600: 584.88 (–0.08%)
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