US soldier faces DOJ charges over Maduro prediction bets

The U.S. Department of Justice has charged active-duty Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke over alleged Polymarket trades tied to the capture of Nicolás Maduro. 

Prosecutors said Van Dyke used classified information from a U.S. military operation to place prediction market bets.

Van Dyke, 38, allegedly took part in planning and carrying out the January operation. The DOJ said he made more than $400,000 from trades linked to Venezuela and Maduro-related outcomes on Polymarket.

Polymarket bets drew attention

Prosecutors said Van Dyke created a Polymarket account in December and began trading on markets linked to Venezuela. He allegedly placed 13 bets and spent more than $33,000 in total.

The bets included markets on whether Maduro would be out by the end of January and when the U.S. would invade Venezuela. Prosecutors said Van Dyke later tried to hide his identity by asking Polymarket to delete his account.

Moreover, Van Dyke faces charges that include violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and an unlawful monetary transaction. The charges could bring a long prison sentence if he is convicted.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed a civil complaint in a parallel case. The agency seeks disgorgement, restitution, and civil penalties tied to the alleged trading activity.

FBI Director Kash Patel said, “Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable.” CFTC Chair Michael Selig said Van Dyke “was entrusted with confidential information” and took action that put national security and service members at risk.

Case raises prediction market scrutiny

The case has renewed attention on prediction markets and possible insider trading risks. Lawmakers have already discussed limits on bets tied to government policy and official action.

Polymarket said it cooperated with the DOJ after finding a user trading on classified government information. The platform stated, “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works.”