Bitcoin Price Tests $60,000 as Historic Compression Signals a Major Market Move

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price is testing the former cycle-top region near $58,000–$60,000 as support.
• Bollinger BandWidth has fallen toward one of its tightest readings in Bitcoin’s history.
• The latest drawdown stands near 53%, considerably smaller than losses recorded in earlier bear markets.

Bitcoin price is holding close to $60,000 after a sharp decline from its 2025 peak near $126,000. Price now sits in a region where several long-term indicators, former cycle levels and trend lines meet.

The market is also unusually compressed. That does not reveal the direction of the next move, but it suggests the current low-volatility phase may not last. Traders are therefore watching whether the old cycle-top area holds or gives way to a deeper correction.

Bitcoin Compression Reaches a Rare Extreme

Cryptollica’s long-term chart placed Bitcoin price near the lower part of its current Bollinger Band structure while the Bollinger BandWidth reading falls toward historic lows. The indicator measures the distance between the upper and lower bands and contracts when volatility declines.

Earlier periods of extreme compression often came before large price moves. Those expansions did not always begin immediately, and the indicator alone does not determine whether the break will be higher or lower.

The current setup carries added weight since Bitcoin is testing the broad region surrounding a previous cycle high. Former peaks can later operate as support when price returns after a larger advance.

BTC price must hold the upper-$50,000 to $60,000 region for that interpretation to remain intact. A recovery above roughly $64,000 would ease immediate pressure, while stronger resistance sits around $72,000–$76,000. A clean loss of the current floor would shift attention toward the low-$50,000 range.

Megaphone Support Challenges the $45,000 Forecast

Meanwhile, Don disagrees with prediction-market traders expecting Bitcoin price to fall to $45,000 this year. His chart showed BTC approaching the lower boundary of a broad megaphone structure that has guided price since late 2024.

The market has already broken several smaller rising channels during the decline. However, the larger support line remains beneath price near the upper-$50,000 region.

His roadmap marks potential reaction levels around $60,900 and $55,700. If buyers defend that area, Bitcoin could attempt another move toward $72,500, where descending resistance and a former breakdown zone converge.

The bearish path would strengthen if BTC price loses the megaphone floor. Such a move could open the way toward $50,000 and make the $45,000 prediction less remote.

For now, the chart presents $55,000–$60,000 as the main battleground rather than confirming a direct fall to $45,000.

This Bear Market Looks Shallower Than Earlier Cycles

Additionally, data shared by Whale Factor showed that Bitcoin’s current decline is smaller than every completed bear market listed in the comparison.

Bitcoin price fell 93% in 2011, 87% between 2013 and 2015, 84% during 2017–2018 and 77% in 2021–2022. The present drop from approximately $126,073 to near $58,000 equals roughly 53%.

The decline has lasted about 9 months, while several earlier bear markets lasted approximately 1 year or longer. That leaves room for further weakness, even though the percentage loss is already less severe.

A shallower drawdown may reflect deeper liquidity and a broader investor base. However, it does not prove that the cycle low has formed.

Bitcoin price would need to stop producing lower highs and reclaim lost resistance before traders could confirm that the bear phase is ending.

Higher Cycle Lows Support the Accumulation Case

Notably, James Easton views the current decline as another stage in Bitcoin’s long-term pattern of higher market bottoms. His monthly chart compared major lows from 2015, 2018, 2022 and the present cycle.

Each completed low sits above the one before it in nominal price terms. At the same time, the percentage losses have narrowed across successive cycles.

Momentum indicators beneath the chart have also fallen toward zones associated with earlier accumulation periods. The current readings resemble previous conditions near major market lows, although they have not yet produced a confirmed turn.

The bullish case depends on Bitcoin holding near $58,000–$60,000 and later recovering to $64,000. A move through $72,000 would provide stronger evidence that accumulation has replaced distribution.

The bearish scenario remains straightforward. Losing $55,000 would weaken the higher-low structure and place the $50,000 region in view. A further breakdown would then bring the prediction-market target near $45,000 into the discussion.

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