Nigeria emerges as MTN’s dominant market after massive earnings jump

MTN Nigeria has overtaken MTN South Africa to become the largest profit contributor to MTN Group, signalling a major shift in the telecom giant’s earnings structure.

The Nigerian subsidiary more than doubled its profitability in 2025, according to MTN Group’s 2025 financial results released on Monday. 

MTN Nigeria reported  $1.926 billion in Chief Operating Decision Maker earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (CODM EBITDA), up from $946.59 million in 2024. The 103.4% year-on-year increase marks one of the most dramatic earnings surges across the group’s major markets.

CODM EBITDA is the profit metric MTN’s top decision‑makers use to assess market performance, calculated before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation.

With Nigeria now driving most of MTN Group’s profits, the country is likely to shape the company’s infrastructure investments as its financial performance becomes increasingly tied to Nigeria’s data demand, fintech adoption, and regulatory environment.

The surge in Nigeria pushed it well ahead of MTN South Africa, which recorded $1.048 billion in EBITDA in 2025, ending years in which the group’s home market had been the most profitable.

At the same time, MTN Ghana posted strong growth, with EBITDA rising from $849.14 million in 2024 to $1.276 billion in 2025, a 50.3% increase.

Combined, the rapid expansion in Nigeria and Ghana has rewritten MTN’s internal profit hierarchy, pushing South Africa into third place and signalling a broader shift in the company’s financial centre of gravity toward West Africa.

The figures indicate that Nigeria generated nearly 84% more profit than South Africa in 2025, solidifying its position as the company’s most valuable market. The shift shows that Nigeria is now crucial to MTN’s profits but also makes the group more vulnerable to economic and regulatory risks in its biggest market.

High profits, high operating costs

Despite its strong profitability, Nigeria remains one of the most expensive markets for MTN to operate. Running telecom infrastructure in the country requires heavy spending on diesel-powered generators because of unreliable electricity supply, as well as additional security for remote base stations and costly backhaul connectivity.

As a result, network operating costs in MTN Nigeria are significantly higher than in MTN South Africa. In 2025, MTN Nigeria’s network costs reached $979.55 million, compared with $412.69 million in South Africa, making the Nigerian operation nearly 2.4 times more expensive to run.

This difference also highlights an efficiency contrast between the two markets.

South Africa spends roughly 39 cents on network operations for every rand of EBITDA generated, while Nigeria spends about 51 cents to produce the same amount of profit.

Nigeria’s profitability is largely driven by massive market scale rather than operational efficiency.

The scale advantage in Nigeria

Nigeria’s extraordinary profit growth reflects the advantages of operating in Africa’s largest telecom market. With a population of more than 200 million people and rapidly rising demand for mobile data and digital financial services, the country has become a critical revenue engine for MTN, which accounts for for 51.7% of Nigeria’s telecom market. 

The earnings surge reflects a combination of continued network expansion, increased data consumption, and the growing adoption of fintech services such as mobile money, which are opening new revenue streams beyond traditional voice services.

Crucially, the figures highlight a strong operating leverage effect in the Nigerian business. While EBITDA more than doubled, the cost of running the network rose only slightly. Direct network costs increased from $933.43 million in 2024 to $979.55 million in 2025, representing a modest 4.94% rise.

The widening gap between profit growth and operating costs suggests that the Nigerian operation is becoming more profitable at scale, generating significantly higher returns for every additional gigabyte of data consumed or minute of airtime used.

Strategic implications for MTN

The growing reliance on Nigeria carries significant implications for the group’s strategy.

With such a large share of earnings now tied to one country, MTN’s financial performance has become more sensitive to fluctuations in the Nigerian economy, including exchange-rate volatility, regulatory changes, and energy costs.

These risks have already begun influencing corporate decisions. In early 2026, MTN moved to bring more of its tower infrastructure under direct control, with the acquisition of IHS Towers, in a bid to reduce dependence on third-party providers and gain tighter control over energy and maintenance costs.

The strategy reflects a broader effort to apply the cost discipline of South Africa’s network operations to the high-volume Nigerian market.

For MTN, the challenge now is balancing the immense opportunity in Nigeria with the operational and economic risks that come with it.

The country may be the group’s most powerful profit driver, but its growing dominance also means the company’s future fortunes are increasingly tied to Nigeria’s economic stability.