Mozambique LNG: a Rovuma giant awakens

The restart signal, and why it is different this time

Today’s announcement in Afungi confirms the full restart of Mozambique LNG activities onshore and offshore. The decision was jointly announced by President Daniel Chapo and TotalEnergies Chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanné, with TotalEnergies and the Government of Mozambique formalising the restart following the November 2025 lifting of force majeure.

Importantly, this is not a symbolic step. Instead, it is a mobilisation decision. Offshore installation work has resumed, contractors are returning at scale, and the project again targets first LNG around 2029.

More than 4,000 workers are now mobilised, with about 80% Mozambican nationals. As a result, workforce scale and advanced engineering progress together explain why this TotalEnergies Mozambique LNG restart differs from earlier stop-start phases.

Project fundamentals: scale, completion, and cost envelope

Mozambique LNG draws on Area 1 gas resources in the Rovuma Basin. At Afungi, the onshore complex includes two trains with a combined capacity of 12.88 million tonnes per annum. Consequently, the project ranks among Africa’s largest onshore LNG developments.

Overall project completion stands near 40%. Notably, contractors completed much of the engineering and procurement work before the 2021 suspension. This progress therefore reduces execution risk as construction resumes.

The project now sits within a revised cost envelope of about US$20 billion. Meanwhile, security adjustments and delay-related costs drove the increase from the original FID estimate.

Consortium structure and equity alignment

Mozambique LNG is developed by the Area 1 consortium, led by TotalEnergies alongside Mitsui, ENH, three Indian partners (Bharat, ONGC Videsh and Oil India), and PTTEP. The equity structure aligns European, Asian, and Mozambican interests in a way that links upstream value creation to energy‑security priorities in key import markets.

TotalEnergies operates the project with a roughly one‑quarter stake, with Mitsui and three Indian entities together holding a significant minority interest, ENH representing the Mozambican state, and PTTEP adding Thai participation.

Security as an operating framework

Security remains central to delivery credibility. In practice, conditions around Afungi have stabilised under a consolidated security framework. Regional partners continue to support the arrangement under the current mandate through 2026 and beyond.

Crucially, this approach treats security as a permanent operating function. As a result, investors now price Cabo Delgado risk within a managed framework rather than as an open-ended disruption.

The financing architecture: resilience at scale

Mozambique LNG rests on one of Africa’s largest limited-recourse project finance structures. In total, debt stands at about US$14.4 billion. Commercial banks combine with export credit agency support.

Key institutions include JBIC, U.S. EXIM and the African Development Bank.

Importantly, the structure has survived a multi-year suspension without a full debt unwind. That outcome, therefore, remains unusual for projects under force majeure of this length.

Offtake and revenue visibility

Long-term sale and purchase agreements cover 11.1 mtpa, or about 86% of nameplate capacity. As a result, buyers include investment-grade utilities and portfolio players across Asia and Europe.

These take-or-pay contracts secure revenue while allowing some destination flexibility. Consequently, cargoes can move between Atlantic and Pacific markets as conditions change.

Global LNG markets and the 2029 window

The TotalEnergies Mozambique LNG restart aligns with the next global LNG rebalancing phase. In the near term, supply growth comes mainly from North America and Qatar.

However, many forecasters expect tighter conditions in the early 2030s. Demand growth in emerging markets and industrial gas use supports this view.

At the same time, Europe has re-rated LNG as a strategic supply source after Russia. Moreover, US and Gulf portfolio players now play a larger role in global LNG flows. Meanwhile, Asia remains the anchor market for long-term contracted supply.

Rovuma LNG and project sequencing

The restart reshapes sequencing across the Rovuma Basin. According to public guidance, progress toward final investment decision on the ExxonMobil-led Rovuma LNG project could occur within 12 to 18 months.

In parallel, ENI’s Coral South FLNG and Coral Norte FLNG reinforce Mozambique’s trajectory. Together, these projects position the country as a multi-project LNG province with combined capacity potentially exceeding 35 mtpa in the early 2030s.

Macroeconomic implications for Mozambique

The TotalEnergies Mozambique LNG restart improves medium-term growth expectations. At the same time, it strengthens prospects for future foreign-exchange inflows. Independent studies, including from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, estimate lifetime government revenues between US$35 billion and US$63 billion. Importantly, outcomes depend on prices, uptime, and future phases.

Therefore, engagement with institutions such as the IMF supports fiscal governance ahead of peak LNG revenues.

Local content and development spillovers

Local content commitments now translate into contracts and jobs. In practice, thousands of Mozambicans are expected to work on the project during peak construction. In addition, domestic gas allocation supports power generation, fertiliser production, and industrial growth.

Regional and geopolitical significance

The restart restores confidence across northern Mozambique and Southern Africa. Ultimately, it strengthens Africa’s standing as a supplier of large-scale LNG under complex conditions.

At a broader level, the Gulf region plays a growing role in LNG trading, shipping, and capital allocation. As a result, this dynamic shapes how Mozambique LNG fits into global portfolios.

The verdict: execution defines the awakening

The restart of Mozambique LNG is a reset of confidence. The fundamentals are in place, and markets will judge progress by execution, schedule discipline, and institutional follow‑through. With a capital investment exceeding US$20 billion over the project lifecycle, the scale of delivery now matters as much as the decision to restart.

If delivery holds and market conditions remain supportive, the “giant” that awakens in Afungi can become a long‑term anchor for Mozambique’s economy. At full capacity, Mozambique LNG has the potential to generate significant annual export revenues, materially strengthen foreign‑exchange inflows, support fiscal stability, and improve the country’s external position over the long term.

Beyond direct revenues, the project’s multiplier effects are likely to be substantial. Construction and operations could sustain large numbers of direct and indirect jobs, underpin local supplier development, and catalyse infrastructure investment in northern Mozambique. Over time, this scale of activity can lift national growth rates, expand the tax base, and reinforce Mozambique’s standing as a credible energy producer.

For Africa more broadly, successful execution would carry significance beyond one project. It would reaffirm the continent’s capacity to deliver world‑scale LNG developments under complex security, financing, and governance conditions, reinforcing Africa’s role as a durable pillar of global gas supply in the decades ahead.

The post Mozambique LNG: a Rovuma giant awakens appeared first on FurtherAfrica.