Can Bitcoin break $75K? Options market says yes, but ONLY IF…

Bitcoin [BTC] extended its weekly gains to 12% on Friday after surging to $73.9K. At the time of writing, BTC had given back some of its gains and traded at $70.6K. 

But overall investor returns and relative strength against gold and tradFi markets reinforced crypto assets as a hedge during geopolitical tensions. 

With the potential end to the West Asia crisis still unclear, could it fuel BTC’s rally in the near term? 

Options traders eye $75k

As the West Asia crisis drags on, there are two weeks to the end of the quarter Option expiry. Hence, the Options market positioning could offer another view into investors’ risk appetite and expectations in the near term. 

According to Glassnode, $75K remained a key level that has seen massive call buying (bullish bets). Clearing this level could fuel further upside momentum due to dealer hedging flows, added the blockchain analysis firm. 

At the same time, the majority of puts (bearish bets) and hedging activity were concentrated at $60k, suggesting sophisticated players were still prepared for another leg down.

In other words, the $60k-$75k price range could extend for the next two weeks, but a decisive clearing of the $75k hurdle could accelerate a push for $80k. 

In fact, BTC’s price was sharply rejected near $75K on the 13th of March, marking the level as a key roadblock for bulls to extend the recent recovery. 

What’s delaying the breakout?

Perhaps another factor that has kept BTC within the current range for a while is the lack of strong bidding. According to crypto research firm Swissblock, the February dip below $60K was marked by strong interest, as many players jumped to buy discounted BTC. 

The spike in network growth signaled a surge in market participants, which helped stabilize Bitcoin’s price above $60K last month.

However, Swissblock stressed that a decisive breakout from the current range would need another spike in the network growth or an increase in buyers at this level. 

That said, BTC’s resilience this week was also driven by ETF flows. The Spot BTC ETFs were green throughout the week, attracting $767 million in net inflows. If the positive trend continues next week, bulls may attempt to crack the $75k level again. 

Final Summary 

• BTC outperformed gold and the U.S. equities market by over 18% as the West Asia crisis drags into its second week. 
• Spot BTC ETFs saw $767 million in weekly net inflows, further boosting the crypto asset’s surge towards $75K.