Polymarket has generated 62.3 billion dollars in notional trading volume over the past three years, giving it a 54.5% share of the 114.4 billion‑dollar prediction markets segment tracked by Token Terminal.
Kalshi ranks second with 52 billion dollars in three‑year notional volume, underscoring how the two venues now dominate on‑chain and regulated event trading.
According to Token Terminal’s market breakdown, prediction markets as a whole have cleared more than 114 billion dollars in notional flow over the same three‑year period, with Polymarket sitting at the top of the category by cumulative volume. Most of this activity on Polymarket has settled on Polygon, which remains the primary chain for its event contracts over the observed timeframe.
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Iran-linked event contracts drive record trading volumes as US regulators and lawmakers move to tighten oversight of prediction markets.
CFTC Advances Rules on Event Contracts
US regulators have started to formalize how they treat these products. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued guidance that categorizes event contracts as a financial asset class and launched a rulemaking process to determine how the Commodity Exchange Exchange An exchange is known as a marketplace that supports the trading of derivatives, commodities, securities, and other financial instruments.Generally, an exchange is accessible through a digital platform or sometimes at a tangible address where investors organize to perform trading. Among the chief responsibilities of an exchange would be to uphold honest and fair-trading practices. These are instrumental in making sure that the distribution of supported security rates on that exchange are effectiv An exchange is known as a marketplace that supports the trading of derivatives, commodities, securities, and other financial instruments.Generally, an exchange is accessible through a digital platform or sometimes at a tangible address where investors organize to perform trading. Among the chief responsibilities of an exchange would be to uphold honest and fair-trading practices. These are instrumental in making sure that the distribution of supported security rates on that exchange are effectiv Read this Term Act applies to prediction markets.
CFTC chair Michael Selig has argued that the agency holds exclusive jurisdiction over these venues, though a recent Ohio court ruling questioned whether federal law fully preempts state gambling statutes in some cases.
At the same time, lawmakers are targeting war-related contracts. Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to bar CFTC CFTC The 1974 Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) in the United States created the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Commission protects and regulates market activities against manipulation, fraud, and abuse trade practices and promotes fairness in futures contracts. The CEA also included the Sad-Johnson Agreement, which defined the authority and responsibilities for the monitoring of financial contracts between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commiss The 1974 Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) in the United States created the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Commission protects and regulates market activities against manipulation, fraud, and abuse trade practices and promotes fairness in futures contracts. The CEA also included the Sad-Johnson Agreement, which defined the authority and responsibilities for the monitoring of financial contracts between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commiss Read this Term-regulated venues from listing markets tied to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.
Read more: Can Your Platform Launch Prediction Markets? A CFTC Compliance Checklist
Prediction markets tied to the escalating US–Iran conflict have pushed trading activity on Polymarket and Kalshi to record levels, even as Washington moves to restrict some of the most controversial contracts. Weekly notional volume on both platforms recently hit new highs, while aggregate prediction market activity has climbed to tens of billions of dollars in notional terms and millions of users.
Schiff Bill Targets War and Assassination Markets
The proposal followed reports that several Polymarket traders earned about 1 million dollars by correctly positioning for a US strike on Iran, and that Israeli authorities arrested two people accused of using confidential information about an Israeli strike to trade on the platform.
Meanwhile, an Israeli war correspondent says he has received death threats from online gamblers who tried to pressure him into changing a Times of Israel report on an Iranian missile impact so they could win a high‑stakes bet on prediction platform Polymarket.
In an account published on Monday, Times of Israel military reporter described a coordinated campaign of emails, social media messages and WhatsApp calls demanding that he amend his description of a March 10 ballistic missile strike near Beit Shemesh from a direct hit to “interceptor debris.”
According to the correspondent, anonymous bettors posing as concerned readers, sources and even a lawyer escalated from polite requests and fabricated email screenshots to explicit threats to “finish” him and his family if he did not correct his reporting, claiming they stood to lose around 900,000 dollars if the market resolved against them.
