Crypto Bets On Argentina Inflation Stoke Fears Of Insider Trading On Polymarket

Argentinian authorities have ordered a full national blockade of Polymarket after it predicted inflation data.

An Authoritarian Crypto Ban?

Argentinian outlets reported this Monday that a court ruling in Buenos Aires ordered a nationwide blockade of Polymarket, one of the largest crypto prediction market platforms globally. The blockade will be enforced via the Ente Nacional de Comunicaciones (ENACOM) and local internet service providers (ISPs), in addition to its removal from Apple and Google app stores. The restriction goes as far as affecting already signed up Polymarket users, another local outlet claims.

Buenos Aires Lottery Regulators (Lotería de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires and the Cámara Argentina de Casinos y Bingos) argue that Polymarket is operating as an unlicensed online gambling platform, not just a neutral “prediction market”. This led to a case being brought by the City’s Special Prosecutor’s Office for Gambling (FEJA) and presided over by Judge Susana Parada.

The Public Prosecutor’s Office explained that despite the blocking order having already been issued, the implementation depends on ENACOM notifying all ISP’s so the companies can cut off access. Therefore, the full and final implementation will most likely be gradual.

This drastic ruling follows a suspicious trading scandal in the inflation market back in February, where odds moved around fifteen minutes before INDEC released official CPI data, raising allegations of insider trading by politically connected actors.

The local media has echoed the “degen casino” narrative, arguing that these markets let users place peso‑linked wagers on macro data, elections and high‑profile political outcomes without any Argentine license or KYC/age checks. Clarín claims that, in Polymarket, “it all comes down to betting money on a question that can be answered with a yes or a no”:

Despite some claims that place Argentina as the first country in the region to implement such measures, the truth is that last year Colombia became the first country in Latin America to ban Polymarket. Coljuegos, Colombian gambling regulators, declared the platform ilegal in September 2025 and, similarly to the Argentinian ban, instructed their ISPs to block access to it.

It its worth noting that prediction markets had become a popular way for global crypto traders to price political risk, inflation paths and macro events in real time, often anticipating official data. In line with this, this is not the first clash between Polymarket’s and regulatory entities. Besides Colombia, other earlier blocks or investigations have been registered in France, Taiwan and Singapore, in addition to the US regulatory pressure over unregistered derivatives and gambling concerns.

Argentina’s move reinforces a growing trend of regulators increasingly treating crypto prediction platforms as gambling first and market infrastructure second, which could fragment liquidity and push activity into friendlier jurisdictions or darker venues.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview