The post Supply risks and reserves shape outlook – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch compares currentThe post Supply risks and reserves shape outlook – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch compares current

Supply risks and reserves shape outlook – Commerzbank

For feedback or concerns regarding this content, please contact us at [email protected]

Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch compares current Oil disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz blockade with the 1970s oil crises, highlighting record supply shortfalls and potential demand and supply adjustments over time. He notes that OECD and Chinese emergency reserves could cover several months, but warns that a prolonged disruption would likely keep Oil prices elevated as market nervousness persists.

Strait of Hormuz crisis and supply risks

“In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency described the current supply shortfalls as the largest in history. According to the IEA’s assessment, crude oil production in the Gulf region has already had to be reduced by more than 8 million barrels per day due to limited export capacity. Added to this are cuts of 2 million barrels per day in condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs).”

“Production outages in the region are estimated to amount to 7–10 million barrels per day, which represents up to 10% of global supply. Similar supply shortfalls have only occurred during the oil crises of the 1970s.”

“Unlike in the 1970s, industrialised nations now have emergency reserves, established as a lesson learnt from the shock of that era. The state-controlled emergency reserves of OECD countries would cover the loss of oil supplies from the Middle East for a good three months if all alternative supply routes were exhausted.”

“This means there is no immediate threat of a supply shortage. Nevertheless, should oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz be disrupted for a prolonged period, nervousness on the oil market would continue to rise, and with it, oil prices.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-supply-risks-and-reserves-shape-outlook-commerzbank-202603171428

Market Opportunity
The Shape Store Logo
The Shape Store Price(SHAPE)
$0.001473
$0.001473$0.001473
-3.34%
USD
The Shape Store (SHAPE) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For

The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For

The post The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Visions of future technology are often prescient about the broad strokes while flubbing the details. The tablets in “2001: A Space Odyssey” do indeed look like iPads, but you never see the astronauts paying for subscriptions or wasting hours on Candy Crush.  Channel factories are one vision that arose early in the history of the Lightning Network to address some challenges that Lightning has faced from the beginning. Despite having grown to become Bitcoin’s most successful layer-2 scaling solution, with instant and low-fee payments, Lightning’s scale is limited by its reliance on payment channels. Although Lightning shifts most transactions off-chain, each payment channel still requires an on-chain transaction to open and (usually) another to close. As adoption grows, pressure on the blockchain grows with it. The need for a more scalable approach to managing channels is clear. Channel factories were supposed to meet this need, but where are they? In 2025, subnetworks are emerging that revive the impetus of channel factories with some new details that vastly increase their potential. They are natively interoperable with Lightning and achieve greater scale by allowing a group of participants to open a shared multisig UTXO and create multiple bilateral channels, which reduces the number of on-chain transactions and improves capital efficiency. Achieving greater scale by reducing complexity, Ark and Spark perform the same function as traditional channel factories with new designs and additional capabilities based on shared UTXOs.  Channel Factories 101 Channel factories have been around since the inception of Lightning. A factory is a multiparty contract where multiple users (not just two, as in a Dryja-Poon channel) cooperatively lock funds in a single multisig UTXO. They can open, close and update channels off-chain without updating the blockchain for each operation. Only when participants leave or the factory dissolves is an on-chain transaction…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:09
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell said this was a risk management cut

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell said this was a risk management cut

PANews reported on September 18th, according to the Securities Times, that at 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 18th, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. The Fed's interest rate announcement triggered a sharp market reaction, with the three major US stock indices rising briefly before quickly plunging. The US dollar index plummeted, briefly hitting a new low since 2025, before rebounding sharply, turning a decline into an upward trend. The sharp market volatility was closely tied to the subsequent monetary policy press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. He stated that the 50 basis point rate cut lacked broad support and that there was no need for a swift adjustment. Today's move could be viewed as a risk-management cut, suggesting the Fed will not enter a sustained cycle of rate cuts. Powell reiterated the Fed's unwavering commitment to maintaining its independence. Market participants are currently unaware of the risks to the Fed's independence. The latest published interest rate dot plot shows that the median expectation of Fed officials is to cut interest rates twice more this year (by 25 basis points each), one more than predicted in June this year. At the same time, Fed officials expect that after three rate cuts this year, there will be another 25 basis point cut in 2026 and 2027.
Share
PANews2025/09/18 06:54
Solana Sees $10M Capital Rotation, Eyes $100 Breakout

Solana Sees $10M Capital Rotation, Eyes $100 Breakout

The post Solana Sees $10M Capital Rotation, Eyes $100 Breakout appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Capital rotation into Solana accelerated this week as traders
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2026/03/18 00:18