XRP’s 56% Supply in Loss, Analysts Split on $0.90 or $8 Move

• XRP’s profitability drops as over half of the supply remains underwater, signaling weak demand.
• Price holds near key support, with $1.10 acting as a critical structural pivot zone.
• Short-term upside stays limited, with realistic targets capped near the $2.00 range.

XRP remains under pressure, with on-chain data and technical signals pointing to a market still searching for direction. Recent metrics show that a large share of holders remain in the red.

At the same time, analysts outline a wide range of possible price paths, from near-term consolidation to long-term expansion. This mixed outlook reflects uncertainty across both retail sentiment and broader crypto market flows.

Losses Increase as Profitability Drops

Data from Glassnode highlights growing stress among XRP holders. More than half of the circulating supply remains underwater. Investors who bought above $2 over the past year continue to realize steady losses.

Since November 2025, daily realized losses have ranged between $20 million and $110 million. Consequently, the percentage of XRP supply in profit has dropped to 43.4%. This marks the lowest level recorded since July 2024.

Moreover, XRP trades near $1.33, which keeps many positions below their cost basis. This sustained pressure suggests weak conviction among recent buyers. Besides, it signals that recovery may require stronger demand or new catalysts.

Key Support Levels to Watch

According to Celal Kucuker, XRP continues to trade within a long-term descending channel. Price currently reacts near the $1.10 support level. This zone aligns with broader structural support between $1.11 and $1.28.

Holding above $1.10 remains critical for maintaining a bullish structure. If support holds, XRP could move toward $1.80 resistance. A confirmed breakout above this level may open the path toward $2.40.

Source: X

However, failure to defend support may trigger a liquidity sweep toward $0.90. This scenario could reset positioning before any recovery begins. 

Additionally, long-term projections suggest a potential move toward $8.60. This target reflects a full channel breakout during a late-cycle rally phase.

Short-Term Hype vs Market Reality

Meanwhile, XRP CAPTAIN presents a more aggressive outlook. The analyst suggests XRP could reach $7.52 in the near term. This projection relies on a breakout above key Fibonacci levels and strong momentum continuation.

However, current market conditions do not support such rapid expansion. XRP faces resistance between $1.30 and $1.50. Additionally, a move to $7.52 would require a sharp increase in capital inflows.

Significantly, most realistic projections place short-term targets between $1.60 and $2.00. These levels align better with current liquidity and market structure.

At press time, XRP trades at $1.35 with steady daily gains. Its market cap stands above $82 billion, supported by a circulating supply of 61 billion tokens.

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