The XRP price CLARITY Act connection has never been tighter: with the Senate Banking Committee targeting a late April markup and Senator Bernie Moreno warning that failure to pass by May effectively kills the bill for 2026, the next three weeks in Washington are the most consequential period XRP has faced this year.

The XRP (XRP) price CLARITY Act deadline is now a matter of weeks, not months. XRP is trading around $1.34 on April 6, up 2.2% on ceasefire-related risk-on sentiment, but still down more than 63% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. According to 24/7 Wall St., Q1 2026 was XRP’s worst quarter in eight years, with its market cap shrinking by nearly $29 billion despite the SEC and CFTC jointly classifying XRP as a digital commodity on March 17.

The problem, analysts argue, is that regulatory clarity alone is not enough. Banks and large asset managers need the CLARITY Act to become federal law before they will commit capital at scale, because the current commodity classification is an interpretive release rather than legislation, and a future administration could reverse it.

What Happens in the Senate in the Next Three Weeks

The Senate returns from Easter recess on April 13. The Banking Committee markup is targeted for the second half of April. That is the window. As crypto.news reported, the long-running stablecoin yield dispute between banks and crypto firms appears to be entering its endgame, with Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks having reached a compromise in principle on March 20 that bans passive yield on stablecoin balances but permits activity-based rewards tied to payments and platform use.

Polymarket currently gives the CLARITY Act roughly a 63 to 66% probability of being signed into law in 2026. But Senator Moreno has stated publicly that if the bill does not reach the full Senate floor by May, midterm election dynamics will push it off the calendar for the rest of the year. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has already pushed his own expected passage timeline from end of April to end of May.

The Bullish Scenario: $1.60 and Beyond

If the Senate Banking Committee advances the bill in late April, analysts project the development would unlock $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows, according to Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick. Seven US spot XRP ETFs already pulled in $1.44 billion since launching between September and December 2025 without the CLARITY Act as law. With it, the institutional capital currently on the sidelines would have permanent legal cover. That scale of inflows would lock hundreds of millions of XRP tokens in custody, tightening circulating supply and, according to the 24/7 Wall St. analysis, providing the momentum needed to push XRP above $1.60 and potentially toward its prior cycle high.

The Bearish Scenario: Below $1.20

As crypto.news noted, the CLARITY Act enters the Senate Banking Committee with broad support but a narrowing clock and almost no room for further substantive revision. If the bill stalls past May, Standard Chartered’s 2026 XRP price target falls to $2.80 at best, the forecast already cut from $8 when delays first materialized. Without the bill, XRP would likely follow Bitcoin’s direction in a market where BTC is currently range-bound between $65,000 and $73,000 with the Fed holding rates through at least December. A stall combined with Bitcoin breaking below $60,000 could see XRP drop toward $0.82, according to the 24/7 Wall St. analysis.

“April is the narrowest window XRP has had for that to change,” 24/7 Wall St. wrote. “If the CLARITY Act advances through the Banking Committee before May, Q2 starts with something Q1 never had.”