Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/18/26 – Gas Prices Fall Below $4

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“I don’t want to put a limit or a ceiling on what I think I can be.” – Josh Hart

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After markets got carried away and overreacted to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting and press conference, futures are rallying this morning with tech leading the charge.  Nasdaq futures are up over 1% with the S&P 500 looking to gain 0.65%. The 10-year yield is slightly lower, while crude oil falls more than 2% to $75 per barrel for WTI. Gold prices are plunging close to 3% while Bitcoin is down about 0.5% to just below $64K.

It was a mixed session in Asia as the Nikkei rallied 1.7% and South Korea surged 2.3% to a record high.  At the other end of the performance spectrum, Hong Kong fell 1.6% while onshore Chinese stocks declined 0.4%. In Europe, trading is more one-sided, and it’s to the downside as the STOXX 600 is down 0.5% as it catches up with yesterday’s post-FOMC decline in the US. UK stocks are the biggest laggards, falling 1.1%, while Germany and Italy both only face modest declines of 0.2%.

In the US this morning, initial claims hit the tape at 8:30, along with the Philly Fed and then Leading Indicators at 10 AM.

With oil prices cratering since news of a peach deal surfaced last week, gas prices have also been falling. After hitting a peak of $4.56 per gallon just before Memorial Day, the national average price, according to AAA, fell below $4 yesterday for the first time since March 29th. While those declines are welcome, the national average is still more than a dollar, or 33%, above its pre-war level of $2.98. There’s still plenty of room for improvement.

Rising prices at the pump have a big impact on consumers’ wallets, and the more they spend on gas, the less they can spend on other things. As yesterday’s Retail Sales report showed, though, retail sales have held up well despite the surge in gas prices. At first glance, retail-related stocks also appear to have hung in relatively well. Since the war started, the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has declined 3.4%, which doesn’t seem all that bad against a backdrop of gas prices rising by more than a third.

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