Defending our arbitral victory is a global economic security imperative

The Strait of Hormuz became a focal point when the conflict in the Middle East erupted in February this year. Because the strait is a vital trade route, its closure massively disrupted the global economy, sending the price of oil and other goods soaring.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz offers a cautionary tale for a global ecosystem that depends on open seas, stable trade routes, and secure energy flows.

The strait is not the only body of water that holds global significance. Much closer to home, the South China Sea also holds the potential for conflict and disruption. We at Stratbase have warned that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz can also happen in the South China Sea if China does not abandon its excessive maritime claims and its hegemonic ambition.

Under the leadership of then Foreign Affairs Secretary and Stratbase Institute Chairman Albert del Rosario, the Philippines chose the peaceful path of arbitration. And on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), we reiterate this warning: Any conflict in the South China Sea would have severe consequences not only for regional stability, but also for global economic security.

The July 12, 2016 arbitral ruling affirmed that China’s expansive claims had no legal basis under international law. It clarified the Philippines’ sovereign rights over maritime zones, including areas vital to fisheries, energy exploration, and future resource development. It also upheld a rules-based order that allows smaller and middle powers to exercise their rights, safeguard their sovereignty, and pursue security and prosperity without being coerced by more powerful states.

Despite the unequivocal legal victory, the Philippine government at that time, under newly installed President Rodrigo Duterte, refused to assert our country’s rights and entitlements, adopting instead a policy of appeasement toward China. The PCA ruling was downplayed and dismissed as a mere “piece of paper.”

With the change in administration, the Philippines has stepped up its efforts to assert and defend that victory.

Conversations around the West Philippine Sea, that part of the South China Sea declared ours by the PCA, has been mostly framed as an issue of national security. Because it has, from the very beginning, rejected the jurisdiction of the PCA, China has relentlessly engaged in a pattern of coercion, intimidation, and incursion of areas within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone.

Ten years on, the Philippines is neither keeping quiet nor standing down. We are determined to assert and defend our rights using the diplomatic route. Credible deterrence does not mean seeking conflict. It means preventing conflict by making coercion costly, risky, and ineffective. It means ensuring that the Philippines has the capacity to monitor its waters, protect its fisherfolk, support its coast guard, defend its maritime zones, secure critical infrastructure, and respond to threats across these domains. It means building a defense posture that is credible, resilient, and suited to the country’s archipelagic geography.

Our arbitral victory and our continuing efforts to assert and defend it have led us to deepen and strengthen our partnerships with like-minded states. Many other countries that harbor deep respect for the rule of law have thrown their support for the Philippines, not only in words but in actions. They help send the message that we are not alone in our defense of the rules-based order.

Such partnerships have the imprimatur of the Filipino people. A recent Pulse Asia survey commissioned by the Stratbase Group found that 86% of Filipinos support the government’s efforts to defend the West Philippine Sea alongside like-minded nations in accordance with the Arbitral Award. The survey also showed that Filipinos prefer working with like-minded partners such as the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, and South Korea in defending the country’s rights in the West Philippine Sea. These are countries that believe peace and prosperity must be anchored not on coercion, intimidation, or force, but on international law.

Ultimately, equally compelling as national security is the issue of economic security.

Part of China’s campaign is the harassment and intimidation of our fisherfolk, depriving them of the right to pursue a dignified and sustainable livelihood that must be protected and preserved.

On a bigger scale, the South China Sea issue can very easily become another Strait of Hormuz if China is allowed to have its way.

The government, however, cannot act alone. The private sector has a direct stake in maritime security and economic resilience. Businesses depend on stable shipping lanes, stable power and energy, secure digital infrastructure, and investor confidence. Thus, the private sector must be an active and indispensable part of the broader whole-of-society approach to defending the West Philippine Sea.

Ten years after the arbitral award, we emphasize anew that the West Philippine Sea is not only a security issue. It is a national development issue — and, increasingly, a global economic security issue. It is about protecting trade, energy, food, investment, jobs, and the future prosperity of Filipinos, while safeguarding one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors from coercion and disruption. To defend the arbitral award is to champion national security, but it is also to defend the economic foundations of our nation and the stability of the global economy.

Victor Andres “Dindo” C. Manhit is the president of the Stratbase ADR Institute.