Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Gets Dual Price Target Upgrades as Obesity Drug Demand Surges

TLDR

• JPMorgan raised its LLY price target to $1,400 from $1,300, keeping an Overweight rating
• RBC Capital lifted its target even higher to $1,500, maintaining an Outperform rating
• Both upgrades are driven by strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound
• Medicare’s new GLP-1 Bridge program launched July 1, making Zepbound available for as little as $50/month
• LLY is trading near $1,235, up roughly 14% year-to-date, close to its 52-week high of $1,249.45

JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott raised his price target on Eli Lilly to $1,400 from $1,300 on Tuesday, keeping his Overweight rating. The new target sits well above the roughly $1,305 Wall Street consensus.

Eli Lilly and Company, LLY

The same day the upgrade landed, LLY touched a fresh 52-week high. Schott called Lilly his top pick in healthcare.

RBC Capital also moved on Tuesday, lifting its target to $1,500 from $1,250 while maintaining an Outperform rating. RBC said its own sales projections run about 1% ahead of consensus, driven by Zepbound and Mounjaro beating estimates by 5%-6%.

LLY is currently trading around $1,235, up roughly 7.5% over the past month and about 14% year-to-date. Its 52-week low sits at $623.78.

Schott projected total Q2 sales of about $20.7 billion for Lilly, roughly $300 million above consensus. He pointed to two growth engines: international expansion of Mounjaro and steady U.S. demand for Zepbound.

In Q1 2026, Lilly posted revenue of $19.8 billion, a 55.5% jump year-over-year. Mounjaro and Zepbound combined for roughly $12.8 billion in global sales that quarter. U.S. revenue rose 43% to $12.1 billion on a 49% jump in volume.

Lilly raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $82 billion and $85 billion following those results.

Medicare Program Opens a New Growth Lane

On July 1, Medicare’s new GLP-1 Bridge program made Zepbound and the oral pill Foundayo available to eligible patients for as little as $50 a month. With an estimated 20 million Medicare patients potentially qualifying, some analysts think even the $1,400 target could prove conservative.

Cheaper access typically drives more prescriptions, which feeds directly into the revenue figures Wall Street is tracking.

Demand growth has more than offset the lower prices Lilly agreed to in the U.S. market, which is exactly what management had guided investors to expect.

Pipeline Adds to the Bull Case

Beyond current bestsellers, Schott highlighted Lilly’s pipeline as another reason for confidence. Key candidates include orforglipron, the oral GLP-1 now sold as Foundayo, and retatrutide, a triple-agonist still in development. Schott values the combined addressable market for these drugs at over $200 billion.

Competitor setbacks have also worked in Lilly’s favor. Weak trial results from smaller rivals have made Lilly’s position harder to challenge, reinforcing what analysts call a wide competitive moat.

Lilly’s market cap now sits near $1.16 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 44.

The next key date is August 5, when Lilly reports second-quarter results. RBC noted strong U.S. and international volume uptake, with pricing headwinds expected in the low-to-mid-teen percentage range.

Schott sees Q2 as a potential beat, though a stock trading near record levels carries a high bar on both sides.

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