SpaceX beat Wall Street on revenue, on earnings per share, on adjusted EBITDA, and on all three business segments — and the stock dropped. That happened on August 4, 2026, in the company's firstSpaceX beat Wall Street on revenue, on earnings per share, on adjusted EBITDA, and on all three business segments — and the stock dropped. That happened on August 4, 2026, in the company's first
Is SPCX Stock Going to Crash? SpaceX Stock Price Prediction 2027 and 2030
SpaceX beat Wall Street on revenue, on earnings per share, on adjusted EBITDA, and on all three business segments — and the stock dropped.
That happened on August 4, 2026, in the company's first earnings report since its June IPO.
Two days later, on August 6, up to 911.5 million insider shares stop being restricted.
This article covers what the filing actually said, what the August 6 unlock does to the supply of SPCX shares, what analysts are publishing now, and how the bear, base and bull cases work out through 2030.
Key Takeaways
- SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, released on August 4, 2026, beat consensus on revenue, earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA — and SPCX still fell roughly 8% after hours.
- Revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.81 billion while capital expenditure reached $18.37 billion in the same quarter, 2.35 times revenue, with $15.83 billion of it inside the AI segment.
- On August 6, 2026, up to 911.5 million previously restricted shares become eligible to sell, roughly 1.4 times the number of shares sold in the IPO and enough to take SPCX's tradable float from about 4.8% of the company to about 11.8%.
- SPCX closed at $125.33 on August 4, about 44% below its June 16 intraday high of $225.64 and about 7% below its $135 IPO price.
- Published 12-month price targets run from CFRA's $115 to Raymond James' $800, reported averages differ by data provider between roughly $223 and $261, and Morningstar publishes a separate $62 fair value estimate that it states is not a price target.
- Nobody can say where SPCX goes from here, so this article sets out bear, base and bull cases with the trigger condition for each rather than one number.
What Happened in SpaceX's First Earnings Report as a Public Company?
SPCX at a Glance
Ticker / exchange | |
IPO price / date | $135.00, June 11, 2026; first trade June 12, 2026 |
Aug 4, 2026 close | $125.33 (+9.43%, strongest session since listing) |
All-time high | $225.64 intraday, June 16, 2026 ($211.39 closing) |
All-time low | $107.01, July 28, 2026 |
Shares outstanding | 13.18 billion (7.61B Class A + 5.57B Class B) |
Market cap at Aug 4 close | ~$1.65 trillion |
Q2 2026 revenue | $7.81 billion, +92% year over year |
Price / annualized Q2 revenue | ~53× |
Cash and marketable securities | $100.0 billion |
Backlog | $47.5 billion |
Analyst target range | $62 – $800 |
Next scheduled catalyst | Lockup tranche, August 6, 2026 |
SpaceX reported revenue of $7,814 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, against consensus estimates of $6.93 billion.
Loss per share came in at $0.09 versus the $0.26 loss analysts expected, and the net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1,008 million a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA of $3,538 million was up 191%, and loss from operations shrank to $143 million from $970 million.
All three segments beat.
$ millions | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 | YoY |
Revenue | 7,814 | 4,694 | 4,071 | 0.92 |
Space | 962 | 619 | 746 | 0.29 |
Connectivity | 4,291 | 3,257 | 2,588 | 0.66 |
AI | 2,561 | 818 | 737 | 2.47 |
Income (loss) from operations | -143 | -1,943 | -970 | — |
Connectivity | 1,656 | 1,188 | 923 | 0.79 |
Net loss | -541 | -4,276 | -1,008 | — |
Adjusted EBITDA | 3,538 | 1,127 | 1,214 | 1.91 |
AI adjusted EBITDA | 1,146 | -609 | -276 | turned positive |
Capital expenditure | 18,369 | 10,107 | 2,825 | — |
AI capital expenditure | 15,828 | 7,723 | 749 | 21× |
Source: SpaceX Q2 2026 results, filed with the SEC on August 4, 2026.
Why Did SPCX Stock Fall After Beating Every Estimate?
The answer is in the last row of that table.
SpaceX spent $18.37 billion on capital expenditure in a quarter in which it booked $7.81 billion of revenue — capex ran at 2.35 times revenue, and it nearly doubled from the $10.11 billion spent in Q1.
Almost all of that increase came from one segment: AI capital expenditure went from $749 million in Q2 2025 to $15,828 million, a 21-fold jump, against AI revenue of $2,561 million.
That works out to $6.18 of capital spending for every $1 of AI revenue recognized in the quarter.
AI adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1,146 million, against a $609 million loss in Q1 and a $276 million loss a year earlier — and it did so while the segment outspent its own revenue six to one.
What the Filing Shows That the Headlines Missed
Two numbers inside the segment tables went the wrong way while everything else went up.
Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million, and average revenue per user fell from $85 a month to $66 over the same period — a 22% decline.
Subscriber growth and revenue per subscriber are moving in opposite directions, which matters because Connectivity is the only one of the three segments that has produced an operating profit in any period SpaceX has reported.
Advertising was the only revenue line that shrank year over year in the quarter, falling to $367 million from $426 million, a 14% decline SpaceX attributed on the earnings call to a migration to a new advertising system.
August 6, 2026: 911 Million SPCX Shares Come Off the Leash
SpaceX did not use a single 180-day lockup cliff.
Its IPO prospectus set up a staggered schedule in which the first and largest tranche is triggered by the first earnings report rather than by a calendar date.
That report landed on August 4, which sets the first release for August 6 — the second full trading day afterward.
Date | Event | Shares released |
Aug 4, 2026 | First earnings release (trigger) | — |
Aug 6, 2026 | First tranche | Up to 911.5 million (20% of restricted shares) |
Aug 6, 2026 | Performance tranche — did not trigger | Additional 10%, required 5 of 10 sessions above ~$175.50 |
Aug – Oct 2026 | Five time-based tranches (days 70, 90, 105, 120, 135) | ~7% each |
Oct – Dec 2026 | Q3 earnings tranche | ~28% |
Dec 8, 2026 | 180-day backstop | All remaining |
Jun 12, 2027 | Elon Musk's holding (~6.4 billion shares) |
How Big Is the August 6 Unlock Compared With SPCX's Float?
SpaceX sold 638,888,888 Class A shares in the IPO once the overallotment was fully exercised, and that is essentially the entire pool of stock that has been tradable since June 12.
Against 13.18 billion shares outstanding, that is a free float of about 4.8%.
The August 6 tranche is up to 911.5 million shares, roughly 1.4 times the number sold in the IPO, and it would take the tradable pool to about 1.55 billion shares, or roughly 11.8% of the company.
Eligible to sell is not the same as sold, and nobody knows what share of that pool actually comes to market.
What is measurable is the ratio: 911.5 million shares against recent average daily volume of roughly 73 million shares is about twelve sessions of normal turnover arriving as potential supply at one open.
Why the $175.50 Level Matters More Than Any Moving Average
SPCX has traded for fewer than forty sessions, which is not enough history for a 50-day moving average to mean anything.
What it does have is a set of price levels with documented significance: the $135.00 IPO price, the $150 first-trade open, the $211.39 closing high, and the $107.01 low set on July 28.
One more level is written into a contract rather than drawn on a chart.
The lockup agreement would have released an extra 10% of restricted shares early if SPCX had closed at least 30% above its IPO price — about $175.50 — on five of the ten sessions before the earnings date.
The stock spent that window well below the level, so that tranche did not release, and $175.50 now marks the price at which supply mechanics would have changed shape.
What Is the SPCX Stock Price Target Right Now?
The 25-day underwriter quiet period ended in early July, and the banks that led the IPO now publish research on it.
Coverage went from a handful of independent desks to somewhere between 17 and 35 analysts depending on which aggregator is counting.
Data provider | Analysts | Average 12-month target | Low | High |
35 | $223 | $62 | $800 | |
22 | $223 | $62 | $800 | |
not stated | $230.50 | — | — | |
30 | $239.04 | $115 | $800 | |
17 | $260.61 | — | — |
Named target | Firm | Rating |
$800 | — | |
$300 | Overweight | |
$239 | Bernstein | — |
$205 | — | |
$190 | Outperform | |
$115 | CFRA (Keith Snyder) | Sell |
$62 | Fair value estimate |
Why Different Data Providers Show Different SPCX Price Targets
The five figures above span $223 to $261, a $38 gap on the same stock on the same day.
That happens because coverage is still being initiated bank by bank, so each aggregator is averaging a different set of analysts depending on which notes it has ingested.
Any single "consensus" number for SPCX right now is a description of one provider's panel, not a settled market view.
Published 12-month price targets run from CFRA's $115 to Raymond James' $800, and Morningstar publishes a separate $62 fair value estimate, which it states is not a price target.
What the $62-to-$800 Spread Actually Disagrees About
A thirteen-fold spread between the lowest and highest published target is not a disagreement about next quarter.
Raymond James' $800 implies a market capitalization of about $10.5 trillion on 13.18 billion shares.
Morningstar's $62 comes from a probability-weighted discounted cash flow model, and after reviewing the second-quarter results the firm said investors are still assuming more optimistic outcomes for Starship reusability and orbital datacenters than it considers most probable.
Morningstar reviewed the second-quarter results and reaffirmed $62 the following day; the bullish targets in the table were all set before SpaceX had reported a single quarter.
The difference is whether the $15.8 billion SpaceX spent on AI infrastructure in one quarter is an investment or a burn rate, and no quarter of results has answered that yet.
SPCX Stock Price Prediction: Bear, Base and Bull Scenarios
None of the scenarios below is a forecast.
Each one takes SpaceX's own reported figures, applies a stated growth rate and a stated revenue multiple, and divides by the share count — so every assumption is visible and can be replaced with your own.
Twelve months
Scenario | Price range | Trigger condition |
Bear | $62 – $107 | August 6 supply is absorbed poorly and SPCX breaks the $107.01 July 28 low; capex stays near $18 billion a quarter without matching revenue. Morningstar's $62 fair value estimate sits at the floor of this range. |
Base | $107 – $150 | The stock holds above its July low but below the $150 first-trade open; AI revenue keeps compounding while capital spending stays elevated. |
Bull | $150 – $225 | SPCX reclaims $150, then the $175.50 lockup-trigger level; the cloud services contracts that begin ramping in October show up in fourth-quarter guidance, and capex growth decelerates. The $223 average analyst target sits near the top of this range. |
2027
Starting point: first-half 2026 revenue of $12.5 billion plus a second half at or modestly above the Q2 run rate gives roughly $30 billion for full-year 2026.
Scenario | 2027 revenue | Multiple applied | Implied price |
Bear | $42B (+40%) | 15× sales | ~$48 |
Base | $50B (+65%) | 25× sales | ~$94 |
Bull | $59B (+95%) | 40× sales | ~$178 |
2030
Scenario | 2030 revenue | Multiple applied | Implied price |
Bear | $73B (25% CAGR) | 8× sales | ~$44 |
Base | $133B (45% CAGR) | 12× sales | ~$121 |
Bull | $251B (70% CAGR) | 20× sales | ~$381 |
Two things stand out in those tables, and neither is the price.
The base case for 2030 lands at roughly where SPCX trades today, which means the current price already discounts more than four years of 45% compound revenue growth.
And Raymond James' $800 twelve-month target sits above the 2030 bull case, so the Street's most optimistic near-term number implies a faster revaluation than a 70% five-year growth rate at a 20× multiple would produce.
The multiple assumption does more work than the growth assumption in every row, and SPCX trades at about 53 times annualized Q2 revenue today.
All three tables hold the share count at 13.18 billion, which understates dilution from share-based compensation and from the Cursor acquisition if that deal closes in stock as reported.
MEXC Analysis: Why SPCX Moves Most When the Market Is Closed
SpaceX reported after the closing bell on August 4 and held its call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.
SPCX had risen 9.43% during the regular session to close at $125.33, then fell about 8.6% after hours.
The sharpest single move on the most important day in the stock's short history — a drop of roughly 8% — happened entirely outside the regular Nasdaq session.
SpaceX released its results at 4:00 p.m. Eastern and took analyst questions from 4:30, both outside the regular Nasdaq session, and the stock had already moved most of the way to its after-hours level before the next morning's open.
The same structure applies on August 6, except in reverse: the unlock takes effect at the regular open, so the pricing of that supply starts in the session everyone can see.
There is a longer version of this pattern, and MEXC ran both halves of it.
Before the listing, MEXC offered a SPACEX(PRE) Launchpad and SPCX futures; after it, tokenized SPCX equity and RealStocks.
A Launchpad allocation is fixed and distributed pro rata, so oversubscription does not raise the price you pay — it shrinks the amount you receive.
That is the same mechanic as a 4.8% float: supply is fixed, demand is not, and price absorbs the entire difference.
The same mechanic ran in the opposite direction on July 7, when SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 and every fund tracking that index had to add the stock regardless of its own view — and the share price still fell through July, which is the point: a change in supply or demand sets the conditions, not the outcome.
August 6 runs it the other way, and that is why the same demand can produce opposite price behavior on either side of a change in supply.
FAQ
What is the SPCX stock price prediction right now?
Published 12-month price targets run from CFRA's $115 to Raymond James' $800, and Morningstar publishes a separate $62 fair value estimate, which it states is not a price target.
Will SPCX stock crash?
SPCX has already fallen about 44% from its June 16 intraday high of $225.64 and set a low of $107.01 on July 28, and the August 6 unlock of up to 911.5 million shares is the largest single supply event on its calendar.
Why did SPCX stock fall after beating earnings?
Capital expenditure reached $18.37 billion in the quarter — 2.35 times revenue and nearly double Q1 — with $15.83 billion of it in the AI segment.
What happens to SPCX on August 6, 2026?
Up to 911.5 million previously restricted shares become eligible for sale, roughly 1.4 times the number sold in the IPO.
What is the SPCX stock price prediction for 2027?
No analyst publishes a dated 2027 target, but applying 40% to 95% revenue growth and a 15× to 40× sales multiple to full-year 2026 revenue of roughly $30 billion produces a range of about $48 to $178.
What is the SPCX stock price prediction for 2030?
On 25% to 70% compound revenue growth and an 8× to 20× multiple, the arithmetic produces roughly $44 to $381, with the base case landing near where the stock trades today.
Is there a SpaceX stock price prediction for 2035 or 2040?
No research desk publishes dated targets that far out for a company with one quarter of public results, and any figure you find at that horizon is an assumption about revenue multiples rather than a forecast.
When is SpaceX's next earnings report?
SpaceX has not yet announced a date for its third-quarter 2026 results, which are expected between mid-October and December and will trigger the next large lockup tranche of roughly 28%.
Does SpaceX's stock price affect Tesla stock?
Tesla disclosed a roughly $2 billion investment in xAI that later converted into SpaceX stock, a position small enough relative to Tesla's own market value that SPCX moves do not drive TSLA on their own.
Conclusion
SPCX spent its first eight weeks as a public company being priced by how few shares existed rather than by what the company earned.
The August 4 report was the first time earnings entered the equation, and it beat on every line while the stock fell — because the same filing showed capital spending running at more than twice revenue.
August 6 removes the other half of the original setup, and the twelve sessions of potential supply arriving at one open is the clearest test yet of whether anything besides scarcity was holding the price up.
Whichever scenario you find most plausible, the levels that matter are documented rather than drawn: $107.01, $135.00, $150, and $175.50.
Market Opportunity
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This article is provided by Marcus O'Brien for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets involve significant risk. Please conduct independent research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of MEXC or its affiliates.
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