PANews reported on September 18th that, according to Decrypt, a new academic paper revealed systematic pricing biases on the prediction market platform Polymarket, allowing arbitrageurs to profit from it by over $40 million in a single year. The paper, titled "Unraveling the Probability Forest: Arbitrage Opportunities in Prediction Markets," analyzed data from April 2024 to April 2025 and found pricing errors in over 7,000 markets. The research identified two primary arbitrage patterns: one where the sum of "yes/no" share prices in the same market deviates from the theoretical value of $1; and the other where probability divergences occur in logically related markets (such as "Trump wins" and "Republicans win"). By simultaneously buying and selling related contracts, traders can achieve risk-free returns. While arbitrage activity ultimately leads to market price inequality, research indicates that pricing misalignments can persist for hours. This phenomenon is not limited to Polymarket but also occurs on regulated platforms such as Kalshi.PANews reported on September 18th that, according to Decrypt, a new academic paper revealed systematic pricing biases on the prediction market platform Polymarket, allowing arbitrageurs to profit from it by over $40 million in a single year. The paper, titled "Unraveling the Probability Forest: Arbitrage Opportunities in Prediction Markets," analyzed data from April 2024 to April 2025 and found pricing errors in over 7,000 markets. The research identified two primary arbitrage patterns: one where the sum of "yes/no" share prices in the same market deviates from the theoretical value of $1; and the other where probability divergences occur in logically related markets (such as "Trump wins" and "Republicans win"). By simultaneously buying and selling related contracts, traders can achieve risk-free returns. While arbitrage activity ultimately leads to market price inequality, research indicates that pricing misalignments can persist for hours. This phenomenon is not limited to Polymarket but also occurs on regulated platforms such as Kalshi.
Arbitrageurs profited over $40 million from pricing mismatches on Polymarket in a single year.
For feedback or concerns regarding this content, please contact us at [email protected]
PANews reported on September 18th that, according to Decrypt, a new academic paper revealed systematic pricing biases on the prediction market platform Polymarket, allowing arbitrageurs to profit from it by over $40 million in a single year. The paper, titled "Unraveling the Probability Forest: Arbitrage Opportunities in Prediction Markets," analyzed data from April 2024 to April 2025 and found pricing errors in over 7,000 markets. The research identified two primary arbitrage patterns: one where the sum of "yes/no" share prices in the same market deviates from the theoretical value of $1; and the other where probability divergences occur in logically related markets (such as "Trump wins" and "Republicans win"). By simultaneously buying and selling related contracts, traders can achieve risk-free returns. While arbitrage activity ultimately leads to market price inequality, research indicates that pricing misalignments can persist for hours. This phenomenon is not limited to Polymarket but also occurs on regulated platforms such as Kalshi.
Market Opportunity
OFFICIAL TRUMP Price(TRUMP)
$2.978
$2.978$2.978
USD
OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.
You May Also Like
Why It Could Outperform Pepe Coin And Tron With Over $7m Already Raised
The post Why It Could Outperform Pepe Coin And Tron With Over $7m Already Raised appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto News 17 September 2025 | 20:26 While meme tokens like Pepe Coin and established networks such as Tron attract headlines, many investors are now searching for projects that combine innovation, revenue-sharing and real-world utility. BlockchainFX ($BFX), currently in presale at $0.024 ahead of an expected $0.05 launch, is quickly becoming one of the best cryptos to buy today. With $7m already secured and a unique model spanning multiple asset classes, it is positioning itself as a decentralised super app and a contender to surpass older altcoins. Early Presale Pricing Creates A Rare Entry Point BlockchainFX’s presale pricing structure has been designed to reward early participants. At $0.024, buyers secure a lower entry price than later rounds, locking in a cost basis more than 50% below the projected $0.05 launch price. As sales continue to climb beyond $7m, each new stage automatically increases the token price. This built-in mechanism creates a clear advantage for early investors and explains why the project is increasingly cited in “best presales to buy now” discussions across the crypto space. High-Yield Staking Model Shares Platform Revenue Beyond its presale appeal, BlockchainFX is creating a high-yield staking model that gives holders a direct share of platform revenue. Every time a trade occurs on its platform, 70% of trading fees flow back into the $BFX ecosystem: 50% of collected fees are automatically distributed to stakers in both BFX and USDT. 20% is allocated to daily buybacks of $BFX, adding demand and price support. Half of the bought-back tokens are permanently burned, steadily reducing supply. Rewards are based on the size of each member’s BFX holdings and capped at $25,000 USDT per day to ensure sustainability. This structure transforms token ownership from a speculative bet into an income-generating position, a rare feature among today’s altcoins. A Multi-Asset Platform…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 03:35
OceanPal, a US-listed company, disclosed in its financial report that it holds 51.3 million NEAR tokens.
PANews reported on March 28 that OceanPal, a Nasdaq-listed digital asset management operator, released its annual financial report, which disclosed that its balance
Share
PANews2026/03/28 18:03
Shiba Inu Price Outlook as Shibarium Activity Surges
The post Shiba Inu Price Outlook as Shibarium Activity Surges appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Shibarium activity has accelerated sharply in recent days, drawing
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2026/03/28 18:01
