JPMorgan Warns Stablecoin Boom May Not Be What It Looks Like

TLDR

• Stablecoin transaction volume is running at an estimated $17.2 trillion annually in 2026
• Higher “velocity” means the same stablecoins can handle more transactions without needing more supply
• Stablecoin market cap has grown by nearly $100 billion in the past year, passing $300 billion including yield-bearing stablecoins
• JPMorgan projects stablecoin market cap will reach only $500–$600 billion by 2028, not trillions
• Consumer-to-business and merchant payments are the fastest-growing segment, with Asia leading usage

Stablecoins are being used more than ever, but that doesn’t mean the total value of stablecoins in circulation will grow at the same pace. That’s the view from analysts at JPMorgan.

The bank’s analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, published a report saying that rising stablecoin velocity is the key factor to watch. Velocity measures how often the same stablecoin changes hands over a period of time.

When velocity is high, a smaller supply of stablecoins can process a much larger number of transactions. So even if payments using stablecoins grow sharply, the total market cap doesn’t have to grow by the same amount.

Onchain stablecoin transaction volume is now running at around $17.2 trillion per year, based on year-to-date data for 2026. That is a large number, and it reflects real growth in how stablecoins are being used day to day.

The stablecoin market cap has grown by close to $100 billion over the past year. When yield-bearing stablecoins are included, the total goes above $300 billion.

That growth has actually outpaced the broader crypto market, which analysts say suggests stablecoins are being used for more than just trading or as collateral in crypto.

Payments Driving the Growth

Consumer-to-business and merchant payments are growing faster than consumer-to-consumer transfers, according to JPMorgan. They cited data from venture capital firm a16z crypto to support this.

Consumer-to-consumer payments still make up the largest share of stablecoin activity overall. But the shift toward merchant payments shows stablecoins are moving further into everyday commerce.

Asia remains the largest region for stablecoin usage, the analysts noted.

JPMorgan also pointed to the passage of the GENIUS Act in the United States as a factor that helped boost transaction volume. The legislation provided a clearer regulatory framework for stablecoins.

JPMorgan’s Long-Running Cautious View

This isn’t the first time JPMorgan has pushed back on bullish stablecoin projections. In December 2024, the analysts said they did not expect the stablecoin market cap to reach trillion-dollar levels.

The latest report keeps that same cautious position. Strong usage growth is real, but the mechanics of velocity mean the market cap figure will likely grow more slowly than the transaction numbers suggest.

Asia continues to lead global stablecoin activity, and merchant payment adoption is expanding, based on the most recent data cited in the JPMorgan report.

The post JPMorgan Warns Stablecoin Boom May Not Be What It Looks Like appeared first on CoinCentral.