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TD Cowen warned that the chances of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 are fading as political tensions rise.
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Section 307 of the bill could block U.S. presidents, lawmakers, and senior officials from trading cryptocurrencies.
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Prediction markets currently show mixed odds on the CLARITY Act becoming law before the end of 2026.
Investment bank TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg says the chances of the U.S. passing its biggest crypto regulation bill, the CLARITY Act, are fading. And it is now becoming increasingly unlikely to pass this year as political tensions in Washington continue to rise.
Here are some of the reasons why Jaret Seiberg says so.
Why the CLARITY Act Is Becoming Harder to Pass
TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg warned that the political environment around the bill is becoming increasingly difficult, especially for Democrats.
One of the biggest issues involves the growing pressure to add conflict-of-interest rules that would prevent the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from actively trading cryptocurrencies.
That section could directly affect Trump-linked crypto ventures, including World Liberty Financial, American Bitcoin, and meme coins such as TRUMP and MELANIA.
According to Seiberg, Democrats may now find it harder to support the bill without stricter ethics provisions, while Republicans could become less willing to move the legislation forward if new amendments directly target Trump.
That political divide is now creating uncertainty around whether lawmakers can still pass the bill before the end of the year.
Trump’s Political Controversies Add More Pressure
Seiberg also pointed to several recent political developments making the bill even more difficult for Democrats to support publicly.
One issue involves Trump’s recently settled dispute with the IRS. The settlement reportedly created a $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund designed to compensate people claiming they were targeted by government investigations.
The agreement also permanently blocks the IRS from auditing past tax returns tied to Trump, his family, and related companies. Trump reportedly agreed to drop a separate $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS as part of the settlement.
At the same time, government financial disclosures showed nearly 3,600 stock trades were executed on Trump’s behalf during the first three months of 2026. Some trades reportedly aligned with public policy comments made by Trump during that period.
Prediction Market Odd Drop
Prediction markets now show mixed expectations around the bill’s future. According to Polymarket, traders currently see roughly 58% odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law by the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, prediction platform Amiom reportedly estimates only a 24% chance of passage before June 30.
Some lawmakers remain optimistic. Tim Scott recently said he expects the crypto market structure bill to eventually pass with bipartisan support.
Meanwhile, Cynthia Lummis recently warned that expectations for a near-term breakthrough may be “too optimistic.”
