How the SpaceX IPO Could Trigger Sell-Offs in Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft

TLDR

• SpaceX plans to go public in June 2026 at a $2 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest IPO in history.
• The company’s AI segment lost $6.36 billion in 2025, and the acquisition of xAI in early 2026 is expected to increase cash burn.
• Anthropic is reportedly paying $1.25 billion per month to rent excess capacity from xAI’s Colossus data centers.
• SpaceX’s IPO could force investors to sell existing holdings, putting pressure on stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft.
• Experts warn the IPO could drive record concentration in the S&P 500, with AI megacaps potentially making up around half the index.

SpaceX is preparing to go public on June 12, 2026, with an expected valuation of $2 trillion. That would make it the largest stock market debut in history.

At that valuation, SpaceX would be worth more than all but six publicly traded companies on Earth.

The company filed its S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this month. This was the first public look at SpaceX’s financials.

Revenue Is Growing, but So Are Losses

In 2025, SpaceX reported revenue of $18.7 billion, up 33% from the prior year. That growth is strong by any measure.

But expenses grew faster. Operating income swung from a $466 million profit to a $2.6 billion loss in the same period.

A large part of that loss comes from the company’s AI segment. SpaceX’s AI operations posted a $6.36 billion operating loss in 2025.

That was before the company acquired xAI in February 2026. The deal is expected to push losses higher as SpaceX competes with OpenAI and Anthropic for AI talent and infrastructure.

There are signs xAI may be struggling to fill its data centers. Anthropic is reportedly paying $1.25 billion per month to rent space at xAI’s Colossus facility. That revenue helps SpaceX in the short term, but it also means the capacity is not being used for SpaceX’s own Grok AI model.

Anthropic can exit that deal before it expires in 2029.

What the IPO Could Mean for Other Stocks

SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion through its IPO. That money has to come from somewhere.

Bank of America data shows private wealth clients are sitting at record low cash levels — just 9.9% of their portfolios. They have 66% allocated to stocks.

That means investors who want to buy SpaceX shares will likely have to sell something else first.

Research firm MSCI estimates that Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft will face the largest outflows when SpaceX and other new listings are added to major indexes like the Nasdaq 100.

Concentration Risk Is Growing

Once the reshuffling is done, analysts warn the market could look very different.

AI megacaps could make up close to half of the S&P 500. Asher Regovy, chief investment officer at Magnifina, noted this leaves the market exposed to a single bad event — like a disappointing earnings report — rippling through the entire index.

Doll said he is not overly concerned for now, since tech valuations are still at reasonable levels. He said his portfolio is split between defensive stocks and AI-exposed names, focused on companies with high return on equity.

UBS last week advised clients to reduce dependence on large US tech names. The bank recommended adding exposure to Japanese, Chinese, and Swiss equities, as well as European consumer discretionary and global health care stocks.

SpaceX’s Elon Musk has proposed putting data centers in space to reduce cooling costs. Most analysts view that as a long-term concept, not a near-term business strategy.

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