ETH Bear Flag Confirmed: 47% Downside Target at $1,075 as Altcoins Flash Warnings

ETH bear flag confirmed with a 47% downside target of $1,075. BTC breaks below $74,243. Altcoins flashing stacked bearish warnings.

Bitcoin slipped almost 2% on Wednesday, putting in a lower local low at $74,243.99. That number beat the Saturday wick at $74,289. Crypto analyst MooninPapa on X called it the moment the support fan got crushed, with the next hard target sitting at $71,474.

On-balance volume for BTC just rolled over to what MooninPapa describes as the top of the roller coaster. The TBO close long confirmed Tuesday, followed by a cross down. A bounce to the fast line is possible. Whether it matters is a different question.

The Ethereum Chart Nobody Wants to Look At

ETH closed below a long-term support level first established in early February and tested repeatedly through late May. On Wednesday it closed lower again, and the upper wick tested that same level as resistance before getting rejected. According to MooninPapa on X, that rejection is enough: bear flag confirmed.

The measured move from the pattern puts a downside target at $1,075. From where ETH was sitting around $2,026 at the time of the analysis, that is a 47% drop. RSI for Ethereum went below 25 on Wednesday to 24.87.

Bears should not confuse oversold with done. The analyst pointed to February 5th, when ETH RSI fell to 11.49. If selling accelerates anywhere near that range again, he views it as a massive buy signal. Not yet. On-balance volume is showing the same roller coaster pattern.

Total Market Cap Cracking, Stablecoin Squeeze Building

TOTALES, which strips stable coins from the total crypto market cap, cracked through $2.19 trillion support and pierced $2.17 trillion on the same day. A bounce around $2.16 trillion would be meaningful. MooninPapa said a pierce of that level is likely to confirm breakdown, not reverse it.

Stablecoin dominance, combining USDT and USDC, climbed to 10.79% Wednesday. It has not exceeded the 10.828% high from Saturday. None of that changes the direction. The TBO cloud for stablecoin dominance has compressed to its tightest range in weeks. That kind of squeeze usually ends with a sharp move.

The Bollinger-style compression in the stablecoin dominance cloud is the part of the chart that most traders are not discussing. An open long printed Wednesday for all stablecoins combined. More pain on the way, in the analyst’s words.

Bitcoin Dominance Signal Is Quietly Warning About Altcoins

Bitcoin dominance printed a TBO close long on Wednesday. That is a bearish reversal sign for BTC dominance. It tends to create a false sense of safety for alt holders, because when dominance falls, altcoins look stronger. The actual picture is more complicated.

If Bitcoin dominance tags the fast line at 60.60%, alts and others dominance charts get hit hard. OTHERS.D has three TBT bearish divergences on the four-hour time frame since Tuesday morning. Daily RSI for OTHERS.D has been printing lower highs since May 8th, falling from 76.43 to 72.58 to 65.88 on Wednesday.

The TOTAL100 chart confirmed its first four-hour TBO breakdown since March 2026. Not since that period has this chart printed a breakdown at this timeframe. MooninPapa on X said the YouTube breakdown video covers this in detail: Tuesday closed below the cloud. Wednesday printed a lower local low. RSI is expected to fall well below 25.

Individual Names: What the Charts Are Saying Right Now

RAIN closed up another 25% Wednesday after a 43% pump the day before. RSI hit 97.43. Most charts do not make it above 98. MooninPapa flagged the setup as a danger zone, not a continuation signal. XLM pumped 11% on Wednesday and was already up another 7% early Thursday, which MooninPapa noted is weird given how XRP and XLM usually move together.

XRP RSI is now oversold on the daily for the first time since January 30th. The analyst still expects it to go lower. ZEC broke spaghetti support. WLFI bounced to the fast line at $0.06 before heading lower. MORPHO printed three TBT bearish divergence clusters. Caspa short entered on the bounce is now 6% in profit.

On the viewer picks side, BGB and MX are called super strong bearish. AVAX is in danger of another 60% drop down to $3.25. That would put it close to September 2023 levels. BNB, HYPE, TAO, JUP, DASH, and PENGU are all printing close longs on their respective charts. Bearish warnings stacking up, as the X post put it.

TradFi Is Pulling in the Opposite Direction

DXY is still above the TBO cloud and strong bullish. USDJPY has a breakout cluster on the four-hour pointing toward 160 or higher. The Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance have not intervened in any meaningful way. The VIX closed lower at 16.29.

Nvidia fell deeper inside the daily TBO cloud Wednesday, putting in a low of $208.78. Open gaps remain at $189.66 and $178.23. The macro trend for Nvidia is still bullish, but on-balance volume is showing its own top of the roller coaster moment.

Shanghai Composite printed a second TBO close long after one on May 21st. There is a gap lower at 3902, about 4.6% down from current levels. Gold fell 1.14% Wednesday. Silver broke spaghetti support and confirmed a TBO open short, dropping 3%. The next real target for silver if $73 fails is $49.

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