SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Surges 30% Pre-Market Ahead of Historic IPO Debut

TLDR

• SpaceX set its IPO offering at $135 per share, securing capital at a $1.77 trillion market cap — establishing the largest public offering in global history.
• Shares are tracking to debut at $175 on Friday, approximately 30% higher than the offering price.
• Oppenheimer launched coverage with an “outperform” designation and $190 price objective; New Street Research established a $165 target.
• The company recorded a $4.94 billion net deficit in 2025 following its xAI combination, contrasting with a $791 million gain in 2024.
• Morningstar assigns a fair value of merely $63 per share, labeling it excessively priced, while prominent short seller Jim Chanos has challenged the $1.77 trillion assessment.

SpaceX (SPCX) is poised to create a watershed moment on Friday, with indications showing shares opening at $175 — representing approximately 30% appreciation over the $135 offering price. This trajectory would elevate the aerospace manufacturer’s market capitalization to nearly $2.29 trillion before executing its initial public trade.

The public offering secured capital at a $1.77 trillion assessment after the company distributed 555.56 million shares priced at $135 apiece on Thursday. This positioning already places it beyond JPMorgan Chase, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, Meta Platforms, and even Elon Musk’s electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla in market value.

This represents the most substantial initial public offering on record. Saudi Aramco’s 2019 market debut generated $25.6 billion at a $1.71 trillion assessment. SpaceX has now eclipsed that benchmark.

Interest from individual investors exceeded $100 billion, based on Bloomberg reporting. BlackRock independently submitted a $5 billion institutional commitment, according to the Wall Street Journal. SpaceX additionally reserved 30% of shares for individual investors — a substantially greater portion than typical mega-cap offerings.

Starlink, the company’s orbital internet platform, contributed approximately 60% of SpaceX’s $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue. The service currently supports around 10.3 million subscribers through 9,600 satellites, delivering connectivity across 164 nations and territories.

Oppenheimer emerged as the first leading investment firm to publish analysis, assigning an “outperform” rating alongside a $190 valuation target. Analyst Timothy Horan characterized SpaceX as “the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.” New Street Research projected a 12-month objective of $165.

The Bear Case

Not all market observers share the bullish sentiment. Morningstar calculates SPCX’s intrinsic value at $63 per share — representing a 53% markdown from the offering price. Its highest-probability scenario, weighted at just 7% likelihood, reaches only $154. Valuation authority Aswath Damodaran estimates the enterprise value at $1.22 trillion.

The financial statements support certain concerns. SpaceX generated a $4.94 billion net deficit in 2025 after finalizing its xAI combination, reversing a $791 million surplus in 2024. Revenue expanded 33% annually, yet profitability deteriorated significantly.

Governance and Index Inclusion

Elon Musk maintains an estimated 80–85% of voting authority. This configuration leaves public shareholders with minimal influence over corporate decisions — a framework attracting examination alongside the valuation controversy.

Regarding index membership, Nasdaq recently modified listing standards that might facilitate SPCX’s entrance into the Nasdaq 100. Nevertheless, S&P Global rejected making accommodations for expedited S&P 500 admission. This indicates automatic purchasing from passive index portfolios may materialize slower than certain market participants anticipate.

Space-sector equities including AST SpaceMobile, Viasat, and Rocket Lab all declined in preliminary trading on Friday preceding SpaceX’s market entrance.

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