‘No risk, no gain’: Danube’s Anis Sajan on wartime trade

• Crisis brought in new customers
• ‘We decided to keep on importing’
• Six more months of Hormuz backlog

A container carrying building materials bound for Dubai left Hong Kong in early March. Instead of arriving a few weeks later, it was diverted to India, then Sri Lanka, then Saudi Arabia, before beginning its final journey by road into the UAE – more than three months after setting off.

The person tracking the shipment is Anis Sajan, vice chairman of Dubai-headquartered Danube Group, a multi-billion dollar building materials, property development and retail conglomerate.

The convoluted route illustrates the challenges still facing Gulf businesses, even as a US-Iran agreement expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz comes into view.

What should have been a routine delivery has become a reminder that reopening the waterway may prove easier than repairing the supply chains disrupted since the war began on February 28.

For Sajan, the deal is welcome but beside the point while more than 500 vessels remain backed up outside the chokepoint.

“It’s not [like] we’re going to be the first people in the queue who are going to get our material,” he told AGBI.

“The queue is huge. Medical supplies, oil and food will get priority. So for people like us in building, if we want materials, we have to pay the premium [for other routes].”

Danube continued importing throughout the crisis, finding alternative routes through Oman and the UAE’s east coast port of Khor Fakkan and paying freight that has risen from about $1,000 to $10,000 for a 40-foot container.

One consequence has been a steady flow of new customers.

“When there is a challenge, you get a chance,” Sajan said.

“Not every [supplier] wants to pay that extra high freight [cost]. So there’s an opportunity where we take that risk. Developers who were not buying from us once upon a time have no choice but to come to us.”

Developer costs across the market have risen around 2 to 3 percent, Sajan estimates, driven by supply shortages and war premiums, the combined impact of freight surcharges and road transport increases.

“A developer has no other choice but to absorb it if [they] want to finish the project on time,” he said.

Despite the war, Danube expects its building materials division to grow sales by about 15 percent this year, Sajan said.

“Irrespective of whatever cost, we have decided to keep on importing,” he said.

“We can demand our payment terms. No risk, no gain.”

The recovery

Meanwhile, Danube has been using offices and facilities in China and Italy to ship directly to customers in Africa, Russia and Central Asia.

For long-standing export clients facing sharply higher freight costs, the company has absorbed part of the increase.

“One of the reasons we are growing is because our infrastructure [is spread across multiple markets], built over 33 years,” Sajan said.

The experience echoes a warning delivered recently by UAE foreign trade minister Thani Al Zeyoudi, who urged businesses to diversify internationally rather than depend on a single market or trade route: “Otherwise, your businesses are going to die,” he said.

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Even after Hormuz reopens, Sajan expects trade flows and freight markets to take months to recover.

“There will be a backlog of a minimum of three months,” he said. “We’re talking about a situation that could take three to six months to clear.”

Freight rates could take even longer – six months at a minimum, he said.

President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had authorised the “toll-free opening” of the strait and the lifting of the US naval blockade, but shipping lines have refrained from declaring changes to Middle East operations while details remain unclear.

‘This is our home’

A broader recovery in business sentiment may take longer still.

“At least not before next year,” Sajan said.

The conflict’s coverage, particularly exaggerated over social media, has damaged perceptions overseas, Sajan said, even though daily life continued largely uninterrupted.

“People who have never visited the UAE might have those perceptions,” he said. “It’s sad… [because] that’s not the case. We feel we’ve been well protected by the UAE government. You might debate, are we safe? I will say yes, we are much safer than any other country. When they see the UAE flying high again, they will come.”

Sajan said his family never considered leaving, despite having business interests elsewhere.

“Where do we go? This is our home,” he said.

“This country has given me so much that I don’t want to go to any other country.”