Stocks flat, oil falls as rate worries offset Iran talks optimism

NEW YORK: Global stocks were mostly flat on Monday while oil prices fell, as optimism over progress in US-Iran talks was offset by expectations of higher interest rates that pushed US Treasury yields up.

US Vice President JD Vance said in Switzerland that Iran agreed to allow nuclear inspectors into the country, with conversations over the inspections possibly beginning as soon as this week.

The US treasury department authorised Iranian sales of crude oil and petrochemical and petroleum products through Aug 21, easing decades-old sanctions, as the United States pushes toward a final peace deal with Iran in return for commitments on nuclear inspections and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finished lower, dragged down by communication services and consumer discretionary stocks. The Dow ended higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.32%.

Europe’s STOXX 600 index rose 0.58%. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.03%.

Markets are being driven by the Fed’s hawkish outlook and reduced expectations that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would move to begin cutting rates, said Gerry Sparrow, chief investment officer at Sparrow Capital Management.

“The market was somewhat surprised by the new Fed chair’s action as it was under the expectation that he was going to be a little easier on rates,” Sparrow said.

The Federal Reserve last Wednesday held interest rates steady, but policymakers expect a hike in borrowing costs later this year amid growing concerns about inflation lodged above the US central bank’s 2% target.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose 5.78 basis points to 4.509%.

The apparent progress in US-Iranian discussions pushed Brent crude futures to settle lower by 3.38% to US$77.90 a barrel, far below its May peak of US$126.41.

“The progress in peace talks is good, but the only negative surprise was the new Fed wasn’t a little bit more accommodative during its most recent announcement,” Sparrow said.

UK pound rises after Starmer resigns

The pound rose after Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation, paving the way for Britain’s seventh leader in 10 years.

The pound reversed earlier losses and was up 0.11% at US$1.3244.

Former Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is the favourite to succeed Starmer, but investors said a key question for nervous UK bond markets would be who becomes finance minister.

The euro eased 0.36% to US$1.1427, after hitting a three-month low on Friday at US$1.1418.

The dollar was up 0.19% at 161.58 yen, with only the threat of Japanese intervention preventing the currency from rising to 2024’s 40-year high of 161.96.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.17%. Spot gold rose 0.72% to US$4,190.17 an ounce.