XRP Price: Only Been This Oversold 3 Times in 13 Years — Here’s What Happened Next

TLDR

• XRP is close to printing a rare death cross between its 20-week and 200-week EMA near $1.39–$1.40
• Past death cross events led to rebounds of 20% and 82.7%, suggesting a short-term relief rally
• A $236.5 million short liquidation cluster sits above current price at the $1.37–$1.40 zone
• Analyst Cryptollica says XRP has only been this oversold three times in 13 years
• Long-term cycle models from analysts EGRAG CRYPTO and CW project targets between $5.70 and $8.00

XRP is trading near $1.13–$1.14 as of June 23, 2026, down from recent highs but showing a cluster of technical signals that analysts say could lead to a short-term relief rally of around 25%.

XRP’s 20-week exponential moving average is now sitting just above its 200-week EMA, near $1.39 and $1.40 respectively. If the shorter average crosses below the longer one on a weekly close, it would mark a rare death cross.

That might sound bearish. But historically, this exact cross has been followed by mean-reversion bounces back toward the longer average.

In 2019, XRP rebounded roughly 20% after a similar setup. In 2022, the bounce was 82.7%. Both times, the 200-week EMA acted as a magnet.

A repeat of that pattern would point to a move back toward the $1.39–$1.40 zone — roughly 23% to 25% upside from current levels.

XRP’s weekly RSI is sitting just above 30, the threshold often associated with oversold conditions. Readings at this level suggest selling momentum may be fading.

Short Sellers Piling Up Near $1.40

Liquidation heatmap data from CoinGlass shows a $236.5 million cluster of short liquidations sitting in the $1.37–$1.40 zone above current price.

If XRP begins to climb, short sellers in that zone would be forced to buy back their positions. That buying pressure could accelerate the move toward $1.40.

Analyst Cryptollica posted on Sunday that XRP’s 10-day RSI is near the low-30s, close to levels that have appeared around major accumulation phases in previous cycles.

“In 13 years, XRP has only been this washed out 3 times,” Cryptollica wrote. “The first 2 times, the crowd laughed, ignored it, and only understood the setup after price had already left.”

Cryptollica’s chart also shows XRP sitting above the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel that has connected macro lows since 2017. That support line sits near $0.75.

Whale Accumulation and Longer-Term Targets

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO uses a cycle framework built around a “Central Line” — a macro equilibrium level that separates accumulation from expansion phases.

Based on past growth cycles of 200% to 330% beyond that line, the model projects a best-case target of $8.00 and a weaker-cycle target of $5.70.

Separately, analyst CW highlighted growing separation between whale wallets and retail participants, with large holders increasing long positions in XRP derivatives.

Analyst Javon Marks pointed out that every major momentum bottom in XRP’s history has been followed by gains of more than 10x, and suggested a target above $15 is possible, describing the current setup as fitting within a broader pattern of 1,000%+ increases from similar lows.

XRP’s 24-hour trading volume stands at $1.45 billion, with a market cap of $70.99 billion, following a 6.02% gain in the last 24 hours.

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