Here’s Why Coinbase Stock May Dip Below $100 Soon

Key Insights

• Coinbase stock has retreated by 34% this year.
• The crypto market winter has gained steam, with Bitcoin and most altcoins retreating.
• The USDC market capitalization has continued falling this month.

Coinbase stock price has slipped by 34% this year, continuing a sell-off that has been going on since 2025. It dropped to $164.85 today, down by 65% from its highest point last year. This retreat will likely continue, possibly to $100 as the company faces some major headwinds.

Coinbase Stock at Risk as the Crypto Winter Continues

Coinbase and other centralized and decentralized exchanges are struggling this year. Volume retreat amid the crypto winter has affected Bitcoin and other altcoins.

Bitcoin has dropped by nearly 30% this year, while Ethereum has slipped by 40% in the same period. The market capitalization of all coins has moved from over $4 trillion earlier this year to $2.2 trillion today.

Their attempts to rebound have constantly found strong resistance, pushing their prices lower. For example, the Ethereum price bottomed at $1,500 earlier this year and then attempted to rebound, but that attempt stalled at $1,763. It has now lost momentum and currently moves to $1,660.

The ongoing crypto winter is also visible in the ETF market, which has continued to deteriorate this year. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $68 million in assets on Monday, bringing this month’s outflows to $2.3 billion. If this trend continues, they will surpass the $2.4 billion they lost in May.

Ethereum ETFs also shed $66 million in assets on Monday, with the monthly outflows reaching $264 million. They shed over $540 million in assets last month. Therefore, there is a likelihood that Coinbase’s custody business will continue struggling in the next few months.

Coinbase Transaction Volumes to Retreat

These events suggest that Coinbase’s transaction volume have dropped substantially because of the ongoing crypto weakness. This is important as the company makes most of its money in handling transactions.

The most recent results suggest that its transaction revenue dropped to $756 million. That is higher than the services and subscription figure of $584 million.

Another major risk facing Coinbase is that its stablecoin revenue will come under pressure this quarter. It’s because of the ongoing USDC market cap retreat.

Data shows that the USDC market capitalization has dropped to $74 billion from the year-to-date high of $80 billion. Coinbase makes its stablecoin money by keeping all the interest it earns from its USDC holdings.

Wall Street analysts are pessimistic that the company’s revenue will come under pressure this quarter. The average estimate among analysts is that its quarterly revenue will drop by 9.56% to $1.35 billion.

The third quarter revenue is expected to drop by 17% to $1.54 billion. If this trend continues, its annual revenue will drop by 14.30% to $6.15 billion. As a result, there are signs that the company is severely overvalued as its forward price-to-earnings ratio has jumped in the past few months.

Coinbase has worked to cushion itself from the ongoing crypto sell-off, but the impact will take time to conclude. For example, it has launched stocks trading and diversified to the predictions market.

COIN Stock Price Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the Coinbase share price has come under pressure in the past few months. It has formed a double-top pattern at $214, and a neckline at $158, its lowest level in April. This pattern normally leads to more downside over time.

The stock has remained slightly below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a descending channel, and is slightly below the neutral point of 50.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling in the near term, reaching a low of $140, its lowest level this year. A move below that level will point to further downside, potentially to $100. Such a retreat would be 38% below the current level.

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