XRP Risks 30% Drop As Whale Activity And RSI Both Collapse

XRP (xrp) is testing its final major support after whale activity, retail interest and long-term momentum indicators weakened simultaneously, increasing the risk of a deeper decline.

XRP Price Outlook

XRP is trading near its final major support after a week of heavy losses, as weakening on-chain activity and deteriorating technical indicators continue to favor sellers.

The token has dropped about 3.7% over the past 24 hours and more than 11% over the last seven days, leaving it near $1.04. At the same time, blockchain data shows declining participation from both large investors and retail traders, reinforcing the broader bearish trend.

Data from Santiment indicates that whale transactions worth at least $100,000 have fallen to roughly 90, compared with nearly 900 recorded during the peak in early February. The decline suggests that major holders have stepped back from the market, while previous on-chain reports also showed large wallets reducing their holdings instead of accumulating during recent price weakness.

Retail interest has also faded. XRP's social dominance has slipped to around 0.259%, well below the spikes recorded in late March and mid-May. Although online discussion briefly increased during earlier selloffs, those bursts of attention failed to generate sustained buying pressure, and activity has since cooled.

The combination of declining whale participation and weaker social engagement typically reflects distribution rather than accumulation, removing two important drivers that could support a recovery.

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XRP Technical Analysis

The longer-term chart continues to point lower. XRP remains below a descending resistance line that began after its record high of $3.66 in July 2025, with sellers rejecting every attempt to reclaim the trendline. The token has now lost more than half of its value from that peak while continuing to print lower highs and lower lows.

Price has also broken below a symmetrical triangle pattern, producing a measured downside target near $0.73. Meanwhile, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level around $1.17, previously viewed as a major support zone, has failed to attract sustained buying interest. Weekly trading volume has continued to decline, suggesting demand remains weak.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. XRP's weekly Relative Strength Index has fallen to around 28 after breaking below an ascending support trendline that had held since 2022. The RSI briefly retested that trendline from below in May before resuming its decline, marking the first oversold reading below 30 since the 2022 bear market.

Although deeply oversold conditions can sometimes trigger short-lived rebounds, analysts generally view the broader trend as bearish until XRP reclaims the $1.17 level and the weekly RSI moves back above its broken trendline. Without those signals, technical projections continue to favor a move toward the $0.73 support area over the coming months.

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