Bitcoin (BTC) Price: What History Says About Bitcoin’s Cycle Bottoms

TLDR

• Bitcoin dropped below $60,000, marking its worst month since June 2022.
• BTC is down 33% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up more than 9%.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows for an eighth straight week, totaling over $4 billion in June.
• Strategy (MSTR) raised $1 billion to boost cash reserves instead of buying more bitcoin.
• Analysts Ali Charts and Barchart point to historical signals suggesting a possible cycle bottom.

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 on Tuesday. The drop marked the token’s worst monthly performance since June 2022.

The cryptocurrency traded near $58,628, down 2.9% on the day. It was on track for its first back-to-back quarterly loss since 2022.

Bitcoin is down 33% so far this year. The S&P 500 gained more than 9% over the same stretch.

The token has fallen roughly 52% from its all-time high in October. Selling pressure and forced liquidations have driven the slide.

Rising rate hike expectations have added pressure. The Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone at its June meeting, raising odds of another hike this year.

Higher rates make non-yielding assets like bitcoin less attractive to hold. Investors have also grown cautious over ongoing tension between the U.S. and Iran.

ETF Outflows Continue

Spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows for an eighth straight week. Monday alone brought $231.1 million in withdrawals, according to SoSoValue.

June outflows totaled more than $4 billion across the 13 U.S.-listed funds. That is the largest monthly outflow since the funds launched in January 2024.

Total ETF outflows since the end of April have reached about $6.7 billion. A stalled regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act, has added to the uncertainty.

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, raised more than $1 billion on Monday. The company said the funds will boost cash reserves rather than buy more bitcoin.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel said the move eased concerns about the firm’s finances. “Crypto cycles historically end with a spectacular blow up and MSTR was becoming bears’ leading candidate,” he wrote.

Analysts Point to Historical Patterns

On social media, analyst Ali Charts flagged a rare on-chain signal. The account noted that 10.45 million bitcoin are now held at a loss, more than the 9.60 million held in profit.

Ali Charts said this crossover has only happened at major cycle bottoms before, in 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2020. Each of those instances came just before a new bull market began.

Separately, analyst Barchart noted that bitcoin closed below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023. The post described this level as one that has historically marked a buying opportunity.

Not every analyst agrees a bottom is close. David Grider of Finality Capital Partners said he does not expect one until September or October.

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