Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Soft Jobs Data Pushes BTC Above $61,000 as ETF Inflows Return

TLDR

• Bitcoin climbed above $61,000 after U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in at 57,000 — well below the 115,000 forecast
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, adding to uncertainty around Fed policy
• Odds of a Fed rate hike this year dropped to 50%, down from 54% the day before
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, ending 10 straight days of outflows
• BTC is on track for a 3% weekly gain after rebounding from a 21-month low below $58,000

Bitcoin climbed back above $61,000 on Friday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The move puts Bitcoin on track for a 3% weekly gain.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added just 57,000 jobs in June. That was well below the 115,000 forecast. May’s figures were also revised down by 43,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, slightly under the 4.3% estimate. While that sounds positive, it reflects a labor market that is still shifting.

Bitcoin traded around $61,632 as of early Friday morning, up roughly 1.9% on the day. Earlier in the week, BTC had dipped below $58,000 — its lowest level in 21 months.

Analyst Ted Pillows weighed in on the move, calling it a relief rally. He wrote on X: “$BTC is now above the $60,000 level. This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash. Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low.” His comments reflect the cautious mood among traders watching whether BTC can hold its gains.

Bitcoin lost more than 30% in the first half of 2026, its worst six-month stretch in years. Weak institutional demand was cited as a major factor.

ETF Inflows Return After 10-Day Streak of Outflows

The market got a lift from a return of ETF demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $221.7 million on July 2, according to SoSoValue. That ended a run of 10 consecutive sessions of net withdrawals.

Those outflows had been a weight on prices throughout June. The reversal points to returning interest from institutional buyers.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall

Odds of a Fed rate hike have shifted following the jobs report. Polymarket data shows a 50% chance of a hike this year, down from 54% the previous day.

CME FedWatch data puts the chance of the Fed holding rates steady at the July FOMC meeting at 82.4%, up from about 72% the day before.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB Forum Thursday, said inflation risks were easing. He declined to give specifics on the rate path.

Most Fed officials had penciled in at least one rate hike this year following the June FOMC meeting. Market participants now expect a hold in July, with any potential hike pushed out to December at the earliest.

The CME FedWatch tool showed an 82.4% probability of rates staying unchanged at the next meeting.

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