Polymarket Ban Failed as U.S. Users Dominated Political Betting

Key Insights:

• Polymarket remained popular among U.S. political bettors despite restrictions.
• Offshore trading continued after geoblocking measures.
• Regulatory pressure expanded across multiple jurisdictions.

Polymarket remained heavily used by U.S.-based traders despite the platform’s efforts to block domestic access, new research showed on Thursday. Blockchain analytics firm Allium found that U.S. users formed the largest political betting group by trading volume and wallet count.

The findings suggested that geoblocking redirected activity offshore instead of stopping participation.

The report added fresh pressure on Polymarket as regulators continued examining prediction markets across several jurisdictions. Polymarket had already restricted U.S. users after settling with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022.

Even so, researchers found that demand persisted beyond U.S. regulatory oversight. It raised fresh questions about enforcement and user compliance.

Polymarket Geoblocking Shifted Activity Offshore

Allium estimated its findings from the share of wallets it successfully linked to specific countries. While the identified sample represented only part of the platform’s total activity, researchers said the data provided a reliable directional view of user behavior.

Source: Allium

Researchers concluded that blocking domestic access failed to eliminate participation, as users continued to access the platform through offshore channels.

The report stated that the United States became the largest political market on Polymarket despite the restrictions. That outcome suggested that regulatory barriers altered trading patterns rather than reducing interest.

The study also revealed a clear difference in trading preferences. U.S. participants concentrated heavily on prediction markets tied to the Iran conflict. Election-related contracts attracted comparatively less activity, even though similar markets remained available through regulated domestic platforms.

Polymarket Faced Growing Regulatory Scrutiny

Research published by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane reached a similar conclusion earlier this year. His analysis estimated that nearly one-third of Polymarket’s trading activity originated from the United States despite platform restrictions.

Crane examined trading hours and market participation patterns to identify probable U.S.-based activity. His findings indicated that users continued to bypass location restrictions using virtual private networks (VPNs). That occurred despite Polymarket’s attempts to block those services.

Media reports also indicated that the company expanded its efforts to detect VPN traffic by blocking internet addresses associated with major VPN providers. Those measures reflected broader attempts to strengthen compliance as regulatory attention intensified.

Polymarket Restrictions Expanded Across Multiple Regions

Polymarket’s geographic restrictions extended well beyond the United States. Authorities in Spain recently blocked access to both Polymarket and Kalshi while investigating whether the companies operated without the required licenses.

Several other jurisdictions permitted existing users to close positions but prevented new trades from opening. Certain regional restrictions also remained in place within Canada and parts of Ukraine, reflecting different regulatory approaches toward decentralized prediction markets.

Those actions showed that governments continued evaluating crypto-based prediction platforms under existing financial and gambling laws. Regulators appeared increasingly focused on licensing requirements rather than platform technology.

Regulatory scrutiny now remains the immediate issue for Polymarket rather than user demand. Future developments will likely depend on ongoing investigations, enforcement decisions, and the platform’s ability to satisfy compliance requirements across multiple jurisdictions while maintaining trading activity.

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