Coinbase (COIN) Stock: AI Alert Publishes False World Cup Result Before Kickoff

TLDR

• Coinbase sent users a false AI-generated alert claiming Norway beat Brazil 3-2 in the World Cup — before the match kicked off
• CEO Brian Armstrong said he was looking into the error; the company says it has since made updates to prevent future incidents
• The actual result was Norway 2-1 Brazil, with Haaland scoring twice — so the AI got the winner right, just not the score or timing
• Baird reiterated a Neutral rating and $142 price target on COIN, flagging Q2 revenue could miss estimates by ~8%
• Baird projects Q2 trading volumes down 22% sequentially, with the stock currently trading around $165, above their target

Coinbase had a rough Sunday. The exchange’s AI-powered news alert system fired off a breaking news notification telling users that Norway had beaten Brazil 3-2 in a World Cup knockout match — roughly six hours before the game started.

The alert named Erling Haaland as a two-goal scorer at MetLife Stadium. At the same time, Coinbase’s own prediction-market page still had the game listed as weather-delayed.

COIN stock was trading at $165.48, up 3.92% on the day, though analysts remain cautious about the near-term outlook.

Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN
Screenshots of the notification spread quickly on X. CEO Brian Armstrong replied to one post saying he was looking into it with the team. The alert reportedly went out at 10:26 a.m. ET. Kickoff wasn’t until 4 p.m.

Max Branzburg, Coinbase’s head of consumer and business products, later confirmed the incorrect story had been corrected.

In an odd twist, the AI wasn’t entirely wrong. Norway did beat Brazil — just 2-1, not 3-2. Haaland did score twice. The match outcome landed the way the algorithm predicted, just not the score, and definitely not before it happened.

Baird Flags Q2 Revenue Miss Risk

The AI mishap comes as Coinbase is already facing pressure from analysts on its near-term financials. Baird reiterated a Neutral rating and a $142 price target on COIN, well below the current trading price.

The firm expects second-quarter revenue to fall short of Wall Street consensus by around 8%, with trading volumes projected to drop 22% sequentially. Baird’s model shows revenue down 12% sequentially, compared to the Street’s estimate of a 4% decline.

Baird pegs roughly 65% of Coinbase’s revenue as directly tied to trading volumes, making any crypto market slowdown a direct hit to the top line.

The firm’s 2027 EPS estimate sits at $4.02, against a Street consensus of $5.09 — a gap that reflects a more conservative view on volume growth. The stock currently trades at a P/E of 57.68.

Baird also flagged that investors have other places to put money right now, including AI stocks, prediction markets, and new IPOs, which could limit appetite for COIN at current levels.

Coinbase Pushes Deeper Into New Products

On the product side, Coinbase has been busy. The company expanded into tokenized U.S. stocks, stock options, pre-IPO markets, and added an AI trading adviser — all part of what it’s calling an “everything exchange” strategy.

Prediction markets were rolled out to U.S. users in January through a partnership with Kalshi, covering sports, elections, economic data and other real-world events.

Benchmark reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $270 price target on COIN following the product expansion. Cantor Fitzgerald also held its Overweight rating after the tokenized stock announcement.

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