Morning Minute: DraftKings Bets Big on Prediction Markets

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors reverse and flip red; BTC -1% at $107,500
• BTC ETF inflows reach $477M, not enough to counter selling
• DraftKings acquires Railbird, plans to launch DraftKings Predictions app
• Polymarket and Kalshi reach licensing agreement with the NHL
• Jupiter launches its own prediction market powered by Kalshi

💰 DraftKings Bets Big on Prediction Markets

DraftKings just made its most aggressive move yet outside of sports betting.

And it wasn’t into casino, poker, or fantasy. It was into prediction markets.

📌 What Happened

DraftKings announced it is acquiring Railbird Technologies, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, and will use it to launch a standalone events trading app called DraftKings Predictions.

Railbird comes with what Kalshi and others fought hard for – federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to let people trade real-money contracts on real-world outcomes.

Now DraftKing’s 6M monthly users will get access to prediction markets (and its $15B company has a shiny new expansion path).

DraftKings says the new app will launch “in the coming months” and initially cover non-sports markets – things like finance, pop culture, elections, entertainment, and news.

Though sports are very likely to come later (especially in states where DraftKings is currently banned).

🗣️ What Are They Saying

“We are excited about the additional opportunity that prediction markets could represent for our business. We believe that Railbird’s team and platform—combined with DraftKings’ scale, trusted brand, and proven expertise in mobile-first products—positions us to win in this incremental space.” – DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said in a statement to CNBC

“DraftKings acquires prediction market firm Railbird As I shared last week

prediction markets are the future for sports wagering Less than a week later you see $DKNG getting involved.” – Rippe, on X

“$DKNG is acquiring CFTC-licensed predictions platform Railbird to launch “DraftKings Predictions” a marketplace for trading outcomes in finance, culture & entertainment. It’s a move to tap non-sports states like California & Texas in the coming months.” – Shay Boloor on X

🧠 Why It Matters

If prediction markets needed any more validation, they got it here from DraftKings.

They have simply become too big to ignore and are now fully crossing over into mainstream betting.

There’s also a new battle brewing between two worlds:

• CFTC-regulated prediction markets like Kalshi and now DraftKings Predictions
• Crypto-native markets like Polymarket, Myriad, Zeitgeist, and Azuro

DraftKings brings three big advantages:

1. User distribution – 6M+ active bettors.
2. Regulatory foundation – Railbird’s CFTC license gives instant legitimacy.
3. Trust and UX – familiarity with real-money markets at scale.

They will be a force to be reckoned with in this space.

A lot depends on timing here.

Someone who is used to betting elections on Polymarket probably won’t switch to DraftKings.

But – if DraftKings beats Polymarket to the US market with its new DraftKings Predictions app, it could absolutely steal that average user who knows what prediction markets are / Polymarket is, but doesn’t want to hassle with VPNs.

And if DK sports prediction markets have the same liquidity that Kalshi has shown over the past few months, then they could steal significant market share in sports.

The bull case is, the entrance of DraftKings into the prediction market sector grows the overall pie and drives weekly volumes even further up and to the right.

The bear case – the sector is zero-sum for the near future and any DK share is taken from an existing leader.

My gut is, the bull case will prevail for the near future. Time will tell…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

In Memes

• Memecoin leaders are mostly red along with majors; DOGE -1%, Shiba -1%, PEPE -2%, PENGU -2%, BONK -1%, TRUMP -1%, SPX -1%, and FARTCOIN -3%
• BSC memes continue to lead volume, taking 14 of the top 16 spots on Dexscreener
• EVAA +80% to $56M and XPIN _37% to $83M were top movers; SHARKS ran 100x to $10M
• Streamer Sam Pepper was banned from Pump.fun and Kick after a firework stunt injury

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• NFT leaders were mostly red again on Tuesday; Punks -1% at 40.8 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 7.1, BAYC -1% at 7.2 ETH; Hypurr’s -6% at 1,145 HYPE
• Infinex Patrons (+20%) were a notable mover
• NBA Top Shot announced several new changes ahead of this year’s season, including a bigger focus on scarcity and a major reduction in Rookie Moment counts