Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Driverless Robotaxi Testing Begins as FSD Software Reaches New Milestone

TLDR

• Tesla begins operating Model Y robotaxis in Austin without human safety drivers after years of development
• FSD version 14 demonstrates smoother driving and better decision-making than previous software releases
• Crowdsourced data shows FSD 14.1.7 traveled 9,000+ miles between critical disengagements requiring intervention
• Current FSD subscriber base represents 12% of U.S. Tesla fleet but doesn’t justify $1.5 trillion valuation alone
• Waymo performs 450,000 weekly driverless rides across five cities, planning expansion to 11 more locations

Tesla took a major step forward in autonomous driving by testing Model Y vehicles in Austin without human safety monitors. A video posted on X showed a black Model Y navigating city streets completely empty. Elon Musk confirmed the driverless testing is underway.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The move separates Tesla’s internal testing from its paying robotaxi service. Current robotaxis available to customers still include human supervisors inside. Tesla launched its paid service in Austin in June with expansion plans for 2026.

Independent testing of FSD version 14 shows clear improvements over earlier releases. The software handles various driving conditions more smoothly with less jerky movements. Test drives around New York City included snow conditions and airport trips without major problems.

Performance data from teslafsdtracker.com reveals FSD version 14.1.7 traveled over 9,000 miles between critical disengagements. These disengagements occur when the vehicle does something potentially dangerous requiring driver takeover. The metric suggests the software is becoming more reliable.

Regulatory Challenges Remain

The system still requires constant human supervision under current regulations. Federal and state authorities haven’t approved hands-off operation. The FSD software faces ongoing scrutiny for violations involving lane markings, traffic signals, and traffic signs.

Tesla reported seven crash incidents to NHTSA since launching supervised robotaxis in Austin earlier this year. Passenger-recorded videos show instances of vehicles breaking traffic rules. Removing safety drivers will test whether the software handles complex scenarios independently.

Musk claimed during an xAI event that unsupervised FSD is “pretty much solved” and undergoing validation. He predicted fully driverless Austin robotaxis within three weeks. His history of overoptimistic timelines suggests caution interpreting these predictions.

Market Position and Valuation

About 12% of U.S. Tesla vehicles subscribe to FSD. That translates to hundreds of thousands of paying subscribers generating recurring revenue. The subscriber base alone doesn’t justify Tesla’s market valuation of $1.5 trillion or its 200 times estimated 2026 earnings ratio.

Investors are banking on rapid robotaxi expansion in 2026. The stock valuation assumes autonomous driving breakthroughs will unlock substantial earnings growth. Tesla stock gained 14% year to date entering Monday trading.

Competition Intensifies

Waymo operates at significantly larger scale with 450,000 weekly driverless rides. The Alphabet subsidiary increased rides 80% from 250,000 six months earlier. Waymo serves Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Atlanta with plans for 11 additional cities by late 2026.

Waymo isn’t without problems. Three Jaguar I-Paces recently blocked each other after making contact in San Francisco. No autonomous system has achieved perfect safety records.

The robotaxi market will determine if autonomous vehicles become profitable or remain expensive research projects. Multiple companies are racing to develop technology for private vehicles and taxi services. Next year could decide which approach scales successfully while improving road safety.

Tesla’s driverless testing in Austin represents progress toward that goal.

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