Important news from last night and this morning (December 16-December 17)

Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, and its correlation with stocks will decrease.

According to a memo from Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, three of the company's "Top 10 Predictions for 2026," to be released on December 16th, are particularly important for crypto investors. Prediction 1 predicts that Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high in 2026 due to diminishing halving effects, expected interest rate declines, reduced leverage risk, and accelerated institutional capital inflows driven by spot ETFs and regulatory clarity. Prediction 2 points out that Bitcoin's volatility was already lower than Nvidia stock in 2025, and its long-term volatility is trending downwards, a trend that will continue in 2026, reflecting a reduced risk fundamental for it as an investment asset. Prediction 3 anticipates that the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will further decrease in 2026, as cryptocurrencies will be driven more by endogenous forces such as regulatory progress and institutional adoption, rather than stock market volatility.

Blocto wallet announced its impending closure after five years of operation due to continuous losses.

According to an official announcement from Blocto, the wallet service will be shut down after five years of operation. The project team stated that the FLOW token price has fallen by more than 99% from its 2021 high, resulting in continuous losses and accumulating over $5.5 million in losses over five years. Despite attempts to communicate with Flow/Dapper leadership since June of this year to seek sustainable solutions, no effective response or meeting opportunity has been received, and operating funds have been exhausted. The Blocto wallet, BloctoSwap, and Blocto Teleport services will officially close at 7 PM PST on December 18, 2025. Users must withdraw all liquidity pool assets and bridge their cross-chain assets back to their original networks before the deadline. For users in custodial mode, they must manually export their private keys to switch to non-custodial mode before then; otherwise, they will permanently lose wallet access. The Blocto staking service will continue to operate; users do not need to unstake their assets and can manage them by importing their private keys to other wallets. The team reminds users to be vigilant against scams and never disclose their private keys to anyone. In 2023, it was previously reported that the multi-chain wallet Blocto completed its Series A funding round at a valuation of $80 million, with Mark Cuban and others participating in the investment.

Former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison was released from prison in October and placed under community supervision.

According to Business Insider, Caroline Ellison, the ex-girlfriend of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and former CEO of Alameda Research, has been quietly transferred out of federal prison after serving approximately 11 months (originally sentenced to two years). A spokesperson for the U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons stated that the 31-year-old Ellison was transferred from the Danbury Federal Correctional Center in Connecticut to a "community detention" environment on October 16. This means that Ellison remains under federal supervision but is currently either under home detention or in a transitional rehabilitation center. Online prison records show that Ellison's expected release date is February 20, 2026, nearly nine months earlier than originally scheduled. Her lawyer declined to comment. Previously, it was reported that former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison received a sentence reduction and was expected to be released in July 2026.

Chairman of the Financial Markets Committee of the Russian State Duma: Cryptocurrencies will never become currency in Russia; they can only be used as investment tools.

According to DL News, Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma's Financial Market Committee, stated that legislators support the central bank's opposition to the use of cryptocurrencies for payments between individuals and companies. Aksakov said, "We must understand that cryptocurrencies will never be currency in Russia; they can only be used as investment tools. When payments are needed, they must be made solely in rubles." Aksakov's remarks come as the government prepares to regulate the industry, despite the central bank's resistance, given the rising adoption of cryptocurrencies in Russia. The central bank has repeatedly called for a complete ban on cryptocurrencies, while the Ministry of Finance favors regulating exchanges and taxing traders' profits. Neither side is willing to compromise on this issue, and they have each proposed competing bills to ban or legalize the cryptocurrency-related industry. These bills ultimately failed, stalling in the State Duma committee after four years of deadlock.

Rainbow Token Economics: TGE airdrop accounts for 15%, total supply 1 billion tokens.

CoinList has released the economics of Rainbow's RNBW token. The total supply is 1 billion tokens, with 15% allocated to the TGE airdrop, approximately 3% to the community pre-sale via CoinList, 47% to the treasury, 12.2% to the team, 7.8% to investors, and 15% to the community. The circulating supply at TGE will be approximately 20% (including airdrops and pre-sales). Previously, it was announced that Rainbow would conduct the RNBW token TGE on February 5th.

The Bank of Canada announced it will only approve high-quality stablecoins pegged to the central bank's currency.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bank of Canada has stated that, under the country's upcoming stablecoin regulations expected in 2026, it will only approve high-quality stablecoins pegged to the central bank's currency to ensure they become "premium money." "We want stablecoins to be premium money, like paper money or bank deposits," Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech to the Montreal Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday. Macklem hopes stablecoins will be pegged 1:1 to the central bank's currency and backed by "high-quality liquid assets" that can be easily converted into cash. These assets typically include government bonds and treasury bonds. Macklem's remarks followed Canada's lengthy 2025 budget report released in early November. The report stated that stablecoin issuers will be required to hold adequate reserves, develop redemption policies, and implement various risk management frameworks, including measures to protect personal and financial data.

Wall Street banks have sold over $530 million in notes linked to the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin was once considered too volatile, poorly regulated, and too marginal to be packaged into a financial instrument by Wall Street firms and sold to wealthy clients. Now, the situation is quite different. In July, Jefferies Financial Group issued the first U.S. structured note linked to the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF. Since then, at least three other banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase, have followed suit. Data from WSD's Structured Products Intelligence division shows that these banks have sold over $530 million worth of notes linked to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). In fact, banks are incorporating cryptocurrency exposure into new products that offer customized returns based on different risk appetites and include some downside protection.

K33 Analyst: Bitcoin's Q4 performance significantly underperformed the stock market, potentially foreshadowing a positive trend in January.

According to CoinDesk, Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, stated that as the year-end approaches, Bitcoin may benefit as asset managers adjust their portfolios to maintain established asset allocations, given its underperformance compared to other asset classes this quarter. Earlier this year, Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 in the first quarter before rising in the second. Conversely, when Bitcoin outperformed stocks in the second quarter, it fell at the beginning of the third. So far this quarter, Bitcoin has lagged the S&P 500 by as much as 26%, suggesting a large-scale rebalancing is imminent. Lunde indicated that fund managers with established Bitcoin allocation goals, or those adjusting their positions before the end of the year, could see significant inflows in the final trading days of the year and early January. He also noted that despite price stabilization, market participants remain reluctant to take on new risks. CME derivatives trading activity is near its annual low, with Bitcoin futures open interest around 124,000 coins; perpetual contract funding rates are near neutral, and open interest changes are minimal, indicating a lack of confidence in short-term direction. The 12% drop in spot cryptocurrency trading volume last week also confirms the low willingness of traders to participate as the year draws to a close.

US Senator Warren calls for an investigation into crypto projects linked to Trump.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for another national security investigation into a sub-segment of the cryptocurrency space, specifically citing concerns about the decentralized exchange PancakeSwap. She claims the exchange attempted to inflate the value of tokens issued by World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which has ties to President Trump. In a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Attorney General Pam Bondi on Monday, Warren stated that the exchange operates on multiple blockchains and is a major protocol on Binance Chain, and should be examined for any connection to “any undue political influence exerted by the Trump administration on law enforcement decisions.” She requested an investigation, echoing a similar request she made last month regarding WLFI. Warren is the senior Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, which must amend and approve legislation before it can be voted on by the wider Senate. Warren has been largely excluded from negotiating crypto legislation on the committee because a significant portion of her Democratic colleagues on the committee have agreed to negotiate with Republicans on a crypto market structure bill.

Huang Licheng deposited 1.2 million USDC into Hyperliquid and opened another long position in ETH.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Huang Licheng (@machibigbrother) has returned after being completely liquidated. He deposited 1.2 million USDC into Hyperliquid and opened a 25x leveraged long position in ETH.

The Marshall Islands launched the world's first blockchain-based universal basic income program on the Stellar blockchain.

According to CoinDesk, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) has completed the world's first on-chain distribution of Universal Basic Income (UBI) using the Stellar blockchain and its digitally native sovereign bond, USDM1. The country's Treasury confirmed that this multi-million dollar program, developed in partnership with the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) and infrastructure provider Crossmint, is part of the local Universal Basic Income Program (ENRA). This program replaces quarterly in-kind cash distributions with digital transfers, benefiting numerous eligible citizens scattered across the islands. USDM1 is a dollar-denominated sovereign bond, fully backed by short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and distributed through the Stellar distribution platform to the customized digital wallet application Lomalo. A spokesperson for the Marshall Islands Treasury stated that USDM1 is issued in accordance with New York law, based on established law, and not on regulatory discretion or policy preferences. The U.S. Treasury collateral is held by an independent trustee, with a fixed, unconditional, and legally enforceable redemption right. ENRA is a fiscal distribution program, with each unit issued on a one-to-one basis using short-term U.S. Treasury securities, fully backed and legally segregated. The government emphasizes that USDM1 does not undermine the country's monetary or technological sovereignty. A white paper released alongside the plan outlines its broader policy and financial framework.

Bitmine is suspected of receiving 48,049 ETH from FalconX, worth approximately $142 million.

According to OnchainLens monitoring, a newly created wallet received 48,049 ETH (worth $141.78 million) from FalconX, and the wallet may belong to Bitmine.

Lingxi, a digital collection platform under JD.com, announced the opening of its gifting function.

According to the *New Consumer Daily*, JD.com's digital art collection platform, "Lingxi," recently announced the opening of its transfer function, stating that newly issued digital assets will officially be eligible for transfer starting December 15th, with the opening time for existing assets yet to be determined. This move, occurring just one day after Lingxi's public beta launch, quickly sparked heated discussions within the digital art collection community. In fact, as early as December 2021, JD.com's digital art collection platform, "Lingxi," was already launched on the JD.com app mini-program. However, due to tightening policies, Lingxi, which did not offer secondary trading, was essentially "shut down." According to Zhu Youping, rotating chairman of the Blockchain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association, JD.com's relaunch of the Lingxi platform is not a simple return, but a strategic upgrade following a period of adjustment in the digital art collection industry. The real turning point for the industry comes from the introduction of policy standards. In December 2025, two national standards, the *Implementation Guidelines for Asset Management of Cultural Digital Asset Transactions* and the *Guidelines for the Valuation of Cultural Digital Assets*, will officially come into effect, marking a new development stage for the digital art collection industry, moving from "spontaneous exploration" to "standardized guidance." The "Transaction Implementation Guidelines" clarifies the full-process standards for the qualifications of participants in cultural digital asset transactions and risk control, while the "Value Assessment Guidelines" establishes a unified value assessment system for cultural digital assets. Zhu Youping stated that the relaunch of JD Lingxi verifies a core logic: the essence of digital collectibles is digital rights certificates, which are commodities rather than financial assets.

AAVE token holders have proposed that the DAO adopt a "poison pill" plan to acquire Aave Labs, further escalating the revenue-sharing dispute.

According to The Block, an Aave DAO participant has questioned whether the relationship between the Aave protocol, the DAO, and Aave Labs needs to be reassessed. User tulipking proposed in a recent governance forum post that the Aave DAO should seize control of Aave Labs' intellectual property (including its published code and trademarks) and company equity by filing a "poison pill" lawsuit. This move aims to replace control of the lending protocol and solidify ownership for all AAVE token holders. This "declaration of sovereignty" marks a further escalation of the ongoing debate among Aave community members regarding how protocol revenue should be distributed and which organization will ultimately control Aave. In his proposal, tulipking wrote, "This is a defensive 'poison pill' designed to protect the DAO from centralized control and ensure that all value flows back to AAVE holders. Aave Labs, without DAO approval, has effectively privatized assets that should belong to the community by monetizing the Aave brand, frontend, and user base. If Labs is unwilling to voluntarily share revenue and control, then the DAO must take everything back." Besides gaining complete control of Aave's intellectual property, tulipking also proposed taking back "all past revenue generated by Aave Labs from Aave-branded products" and taking over the company's equity, essentially "turning Aave Labs into a wholly owned subsidiary of the DAO." Related reading: Annual revenue losses of tens of millions spark governance controversy; Aave Labs accused of "betraying" the DAO.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has concluded its nearly four-year investigation into the Aave protocol.

Aave founder Stani.eth announced on the X platform that after four years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has concluded its investigation into the Aave protocol. The Aave team has invested significant effort and resources to protect Aave and its ecosystem. In recent years, DeFi has faced unfair regulatory pressure; now it can break free from these constraints and enter a new era where developers can truly build the future of finance.

The US FDIC has proposed establishing rules for a stablecoin application framework to advance the implementation of the GENIUS Act.

According to The Block, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is moving forward with implementation of parts of the stablecoin bill that became law this summer. On Tuesday, the FDIC Board of Directors approved a proposed rulemaking notice that sets out the application process for agencies issuing payment stablecoins through subsidiaries. The agency is currently soliciting public comments on the proposed rule. At the Board meeting, FDIC legal counsel Nicholas Simons stated that applications must clearly define the scope of the proposed activities, provide a description of the "subsidiary's ownership and control structure," and include "an engagement letter with a registered public accountant." Simons stated, "In summary, the proposed rule will allow the FDIC to assess the safety and robustness of the proposed payment stablecoin activities while minimizing the regulatory burden on applicants." This summer, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act, creating a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. Earlier this month, Acting FDIC Chairman Travis Hill informed lawmakers that the agency plans to release an implementation framework for the GENIUS Act in the coming weeks. On Tuesday, he also stated that the agency plans to release a proposed rule in the coming months that sets capital, liquidity, and risk management requirements for approved subsidiary stablecoin issuers.

Coinbase will launch Merlin Chain (MERL) perpetual contracts.

Coinbase Markets announced on its X platform that it will launch trading of Merlin Chain (MERL) perpetual contracts. Subject to liquidity conditions, the MERL-PERP market will commence trading in supported regions on or after 17:30 Beijing time on December 18, 2025. Retail traders in some regions can trade perpetual futures through Coinbase Advanced. Institutional investors in some regions can trade perpetual futures directly through Coinbase International Exchange.

Coinbase has listed Theoriq (THQ) and Beam (BEAM) spot trading.

According to official sources, Coinbase launched spot trading for Theoriq (THQ) and Beam (BEAM) early this morning.

CME Group launches TAS trading for SOL and XRP futures.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) announced that SOL, Micro SOL, XRP, and Micro XRP futures now support TAS (Trading at Settlement) trading, enhancing traders' flexibility in managing settlement risk. TAS is a futures trading method that allows traders to buy or sell at or near the closing settlement price of the day, enabling precise hedging and mitigation of settlement risk.

Rainbow will conduct RNBW token TGE on February 5th.

According to Bankless, Rainbow Wallet will hold a token sale (TGE) on February 5, 2026. The project team stated that the public sale will be open to US users through CoinList; the token code is RNBW, the sale size is 3% of the total supply, the implied FDV is $100 million, a 50% discount to the valuation of the last round of financing.

The CFTC is seeking feedback on its recommendations for DeFi regulation; a16z proposes three action plans.

According to the CFTC, a16z submitted comments to the CFTC regarding the Presidential Working Group (PWG) report on digital assets, arguing for: 1. Clarifying through non-action letters/interpretive guidance that "Protocols (blockchain and smart contracts)" meeting certain conditions do not require registration; 2. Providing non-action letters/guidance for "Apps (front-end interfaces)" that meet specific functional and user qualification requirements, confirming that they do not trigger registration obligations under FCM, IB, DCM, SEF, etc., and clarifying compliance practices for ECP and domestic/foreign user authentication; 3. Developing rules or exemptions to provide innovative exemptions or customized registration paths for Apps that do not meet the second condition. a16z also pointed out that previous enforcement conflated Protocols with App functions, causing uncertainty and inhibiting innovation in the United States.

The Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China warns against scams disguised as promotion of the digital yuan.

According to the official WeChat account of the Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China, recently some criminals have been using the guise of "promoting the digital yuan" and "recruiting promoters" to lure the public into participating in group chats online and subjecting them to "exams" and "courses" for brainwashing, thus carrying out pyramid scheme-style fraud. The central bank reiterates that there is no room for speculation in the digital yuan, there are no rebates or subsidies, and there are no promoter exams. The public should be wary of enticing behaviors such as "high returns" and "recruiting members," avoid clicking on unknown links and joining unfamiliar groups to prevent financial losses, and report any fraudulent activities to the police immediately.

Stablecoin payment platform RedotPay has completed a $107 million Series B funding round, led by Goodwater Capital.

According to The Block, Hong Kong-based stablecoin payment platform RedotPay has completed a $107 million Series B funding round, led by Goodwater Capital, with participation from Pantera Capital, Circle Ventures, Blockchain Capital, and existing investor HSG. The funds will be used for product iteration, expansion of compliance licenses, and strategic acquisitions. RedotPay boasts an annualized payment volume exceeding $10 billion, annual revenue exceeding $150 million, users in over 100 markets worldwide, and more than 6 million registered users. The platform remains profitable.

The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice next year.

According to Jinshi Data: Following the release of US employment data, US federal funds futures slightly increased the probability of a rate cut in January next year, from 22% to 31%. After the release of US employment and retail sales data, US interest rate futures still expect two rate cuts in 2026; the expected easing measure next year is 58 basis points.

The U.S. added 64,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in November, with the unemployment rate at 4.6%.

According to Jinshi Data, the US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, below the expected 50,000. The US unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, below the expected 4.4%.

Federal Reserve Secretary Bessant: The nominee for Federal Reserve Chair will be announced in early January.

US Treasury Secretary Bessant: Speculation suggests the Fed Chair will be announced in early January.

Analysis: PIPPIN insider addresses control 80% of the supply, or may be controlled by a single entity.

According to Bubblemaps, the price of $PIPPIN continues to rise, but they claim that internal addresses currently hold approximately 80% of the supply, worth about $380 million. Bubblemaps points out that since the last disclosure, 16 new wallets have emerged with the same pattern (funded by HTX, receiving similar amounts of SOL, no history, and large withdrawals of PIPPIN from CEXs); another group of 11 wallets associated with Bitget has been identified, holding a total of about 9% of the supply, with highly consistent fund flows and time windows, suggesting they are controlled by the same entity.

Visa launches USDC stablecoin clearing service in the US, initially supporting the Solana blockchain.

According to Bloomberg, Visa announced that US banks can use Circle's USDC for transaction clearing via the Solana blockchain, marking the first full deployment of its stablecoin settlement service within the US banking system. Initial users include Cross River Bank and Lead Bank. This move benefits from the deregulation implemented during the Trump administration's second term and will facilitate the launch of the ArcChain, jointly developed by Visa and Circle. Visa anticipates stablecoins will become a key payment channel in the future, with annualized clearing volume reaching $3.5 billion as of the end of November.

BlackRock transferred over 47,000 ETH, worth approximately $140 million, to Coinbase.

According to OnchainLens, BlackRock has just transferred 47,463 ETH to Coinbase, with a total value of [value missing] at current prices.

Singapore-based digital trade platform Olea completes $30 million Series A funding round.

Singapore-based digital trade platform Olea has raised $30 million in Series A funding, with investors including BBVA, XDC Network, theDOCK, and SC Ventures (a subsidiary of Standard Chartered Bank). The funds will be used to accelerate the deployment of AI and Web3 solutions in high-growth markets and strengthen products such as embedded finance and risk analytics. Since its inception in 2022, Olea has obtained CMS license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and has provided over $3 billion in financing to more than 1,000 companies across over 70 trade channels.

360 Group: Yu Hong's claims of "financial fraud" are completely contrary to the facts.

On December 16, Zhou Hongyi, founder and chairman of 360 Group, issued a statement: Recently, Yu Hong maliciously defamed Mr. Zhou Hongyi, founder of 360 Group, and several entrepreneurs in multiple WeChat groups. Her statements were extremely false and had a negative impact. 360 Group takes this matter very seriously and hereby issues the following solemn statement: 1. Upon investigation, Yu Hong previously served as the head of Gamewave, a game company acquired more than ten years ago by Qihoo360, the original US-listed entity of 360. Yu Hong joined a subsidiary of 360 Group in 2014 and left in 2015 for personal reasons. During her tenure, she never held a core management position within 360 Group. 2. Yu Hong's claims of "financial fraud" are completely contrary to the facts. 360 Group has always adhered to compliant operations, strictly abided by national laws and regulations and securities market rules, and regularly undergoes audits by authoritative institutions. Its finances are open, transparent, healthy, and compliant. Third, in response to Yu Hong's malicious defamation of 360 Group, its founder Mr. Zhou Hongyi, and related entrepreneurs, 360 Group will take legal measures to pursue her legal responsibility in accordance with the law and resolutely safeguard the company's reputation and legitimate rights and interests.

Gemini launches prediction market feature in all 50 US states: Gemini Predictions

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini announced that its prediction market product, Gemini Predictions, is now available in all 50 US states. It allows users to trade based on real-world event outcomes, offering near-instant execution and complete transparency. Currently, there are no transaction fees, and it is available on iOS mobile devices and a web version.

The UK's FCA is seeking public comment on its proposed crypto regulatory measures.

According to an announcement on the official website of the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), in order to promote a credible, sustainable, and competitive crypto market, the FCA has released a new round of regulatory recommendations for crypto assets and launched a public consultation. Key topics cover asset issuance and disclosure, prevention of market manipulation, trading platform regulations, intermediary responsibility, staking and lending protection, the applicability of DeFi regulation, and institutional soundness requirements. The FCA emphasizes that regulation should enable investors to fully understand the risks, rather than eliminate them. The deadline for comments is February 12, 2026.