Stop focusing solely on Bitcoin; we're already in a bear market.

Author: XY

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

It has been a year since we entered the bear market.

It took me a while to convince myself that we were in a bear market, and that it had been going on for about a year.

November 2024 was a period of market excitement, and the release of $TRUMP pushed the market to extreme euphoria, a final frenzy that no one wanted to believe.

I will now explain my point of view.

It all started with that old saying: "History doesn't repeat itself, but it always rhymes."

This foolish statement has caused enormous misguidance in market analysis and is utterly harmful.

It has led us to develop path dependence, and at the same time, it has made us lose the ability to question.

Yes, this method of prediction, which relies on historical patterns, is like looking at the world through a prism covered with old patterns. It will inevitably misinterpret the new reality and ultimately cause us to ignore the latest market drivers. This is precisely the root of the danger.

More specifically, we misinterpreted two fundamental changes.

Change 1

We once thought that the meme craze was the spark that ignited the knock-off season, but in reality, the meme craze itself was the knock-off season.

When Meme coins experienced successive surges in price, we thought it was just the beginning.

Some people are talking about the knock-off season, and some bolder ones are even mentioning a bull market.

We were all wrong.

It's important to understand that each previous cycle has seen a phenomenon of bubbles overlapping, typically driven by new narratives. These new narratives give rise to new markets, which in turn often lead to differentiation.

This differentiation is important because it divides liquidity into two distinct groups.

The first group is those with "foolish money".

These funds tend to favor simple operations, deep markets, and low investment, and always remain in highly liquid tokens.

The second group is speculative capital.

These types of funds actively seek returns and are willing to overcome complexities to find opportunities.

The subsequent short-term rotation of speculative funds fueled an upward trend, which eventually evolved into what people call the "copycat season".

This trend has never occurred before in this cycle. No new narratives have emerged to explore this time.

Because from beginning to end, both groups remained in the same arena.

"Dumb money" can easily participate without much effort, while speculative capital can still profit by making early investments.

Our mistake was assuming there would be a so-called "counterfeit season" this time.

But it doesn't actually exist.

The only path for the market is: from Bitcoin to a new narrative, and then to the altcoin season.

This was the script you wanted.

But in reality, the meme craze turned into the expected knock-off season.

November 2024 marks the peak of profits for most traders, while Trump represents the climax of the market frenzy.

Change 2

Bitcoin is no longer dominated by the crypto market itself, but is instead controlled by institutions and the macro market.

The macro environment follows different timelines and reacts differently to different changes.

Following the surge in Trump's price, many interpreted Bitcoin's resilience as a sign that the market is still in a period of fluctuation or a bull market correction.

This interpretation stems from an empirical anchoring bias: people tend to apply the experience that Bitcoin must have plummeted in the past to confirm a bear market to a market structure dominated by institutions.

This cognitive framework is outdated.

Bitcoin has actually broken away from the native market cycle of cryptocurrencies.

Once this is recognized, the subsequent developments will follow naturally.

The bear market began after the MEME coin TRUMMP, regardless of how Bitcoin's price performed.

So stop focusing solely on Bitcoin.

Since January 2025, the market has fully experienced the three stages of anxiety, denial, and panic. If you have made a profit, you can clearly see these stages in the people around you; if you have suffered losses, then you have personally experienced these emotions.

We are currently in a phase of anger and frustration.

So, why am I writing this post?

Two reasons.

Firstly, one of the reasons I've profited from the crypto market is my ability to buy near the bottom. This advantage disappears if I misjudge the market phase.

If you believe the bear market is not over, you will continue to wait for the bottom to arrive, without realizing that you are already in it.

Secondly, I hope this viewpoint will spark a heated debate or help people become aware of and break free from flawed cognitive frameworks.

I have great confidence in this judgment.

That's why I will soon begin to prove my judgment with action.