Bitcoin’s Q4 2025 Drop Below $90K Raises Bear Market Possibilities

• Bitcoin’s 30% correction in Q4 2025 broke the 50-week EMA support, a historical bull market indicator.

• On-chain metrics like aSOPR nearing 1 and 7 million BTC in loss suggest building capitulation pressure.

• Analysts including Jackis and Chris Burniske indicate a drop to $60k-$70k could mirror past bear regimes, with 8-10 million BTC in loss as a key threshold.

Discover if Bitcoin’s 2025 price drop signals a bear market. Explore key supports, on-chain data, and analyst insights for informed crypto investment decisions today.

Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market in 2025?

Bitcoin bear market concerns have intensified following a 30% price drop in Q4 2025, pushing the asset below $90k and below the critical 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This support level has historically delineated bull from bear phases, and its breach raises questions about the sustainability of the ongoing uptrend. While some indicators point to heightened stress, analysts argue that fundamental drivers remain intact, positioning this as a corrective pause rather than a full market reversal.

Bitcoin’s price action in recent weeks has tested investor resilience, with the cryptocurrency trading around $88k at press time. The decline, which began after failing to hold above $100k, aligns with patterns observed in previous cycles where temporary weakness preceded renewed bullish momentum. However, sustained trading below key technical levels could validate bearish outlooks, prompting closer monitoring of on-chain and market data.

What Are the Key Support Levels for Bitcoin’s Price?

The 50-week EMA, often referred to as the blue line on long-term charts, has acted as a primary bulwark during bull markets, with breaches signaling potential shifts to bear conditions. In past cycles, such as 2018 and 2022, prolonged stays below this indicator coincided with extended downturns and investor capitulation. Current data from TradingView shows Bitcoin’s mid-November correction extended this breach, placing the uptrend at risk unless the $98k-$100k zone is reclaimed.

Further downside targets at $60k-$70k represent historical breakout levels that have absorbed deeper corrections in prior bull runs. According to pseudonymous analyst Jackis, even a descent to $70k would not constitute a “typical bear market” but rather a “macro range for 2025,” driven by shifts in ownership from long-term holders to institutions rather than fundamental weaknesses. Chris Burniske, former lead at Ark Invest, echoed this by noting similarities to transitional phases where frustration builds before potential reversals. Historical data indicates that reclaiming the 50-week EMA could reinforce bullish structure, while failure might lead to testing lower supports around $60k.

Source: BTC/USD, TradingView

Dropping to $60k-$70k could align with previous bottoms, where Bitcoin has historically stabilized and reversed. These levels coincide with the prior all-time high breakout zones, offering confluence for potential accumulation. Market participants should watch volume profiles and EMA interactions for confirmation of any reversal signals.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Triggers a Bitcoin Bear Market in 2025?

A Bitcoin bear market in 2025 would be triggered by sustained trading below the 50-week EMA, coupled with on-chain capitulation metrics like aSOPR dropping below 1 and over 8 million BTC in loss. Current levels show 7 million BTC in loss, nearing historical thresholds that preceded downturns in 2018 and 2022, according to Glassnode data.

How Does On-Chain Data Indicate Bitcoin’s Market Sentiment?

On-chain data like the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) measures if coins are sold at profit or loss, reflecting sentiment. As it approaches 1, it signals potential capitulation, similar to reversals in prior cycles. The rising supply in loss at 7 million BTC further underscores growing frustration among holders, paving the way for intensified selling pressure if prices decline further.

Source: Glassnode

The Total Supply in Loss metric, currently at 7 million BTC—the highest this cycle—mirrors early bearish transitions noted by Glassnode. They state, “This pattern closely mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration preceded a shift toward more pronounced bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower prices.” Such data provides a factual lens into holder behavior, distinct from price speculation.

Source: Glassnode

Key Takeaways

• Technical Breach: The 30% drop below $90k and the 50-week EMA signals increased bear market risk, but historical patterns suggest $60k-$70k as a potential bottom zone.
• On-Chain Pressure: Metrics from Glassnode show aSOPR near 1 and 7 million BTC in loss, approaching levels that have marked capitulation in past cycles.
• Analyst Perspective: Experts like Jackis emphasize this as a temporary pause, urging focus on institutional inflows for recovery signals.

Conclusion

The ongoing Bitcoin bear market debate in 2025 hinges on whether the current correction evolves into sustained downside or proves a buying opportunity within the broader bull framework. With key supports at $60k-$70k and on-chain indicators flashing caution, reclaiming the 50-week EMA remains pivotal for bullish confirmation. Investors should track these developments closely, as historical precedents suggest resilience amid volatility, positioning Bitcoin for potential long-term growth in the evolving crypto landscape.