The ancient giant whale awakens and transfers 80,000 bitcoins. Will it crash the market?

Written by: Coin Market Trader

On Friday, eight ancient addresses that had been silent for 14 years and held a total of 80,000 bitcoins suddenly activated, triggering a panic drop in the market. According to analysis by Coinbase director Conor Grogan, these addresses may belong to an independent miner in 2011, who had received a total of 180 blocks of mining rewards that year and once held 200,000 bitcoins. He is the fifth largest whale in the history of Bitcoin.

What makes the market most uneasy is that the cost of holding is only $1.76 per coin. Based on the current price of $108,000, the unrealized profit is as high as 61,000 times. Once sold, it will inevitably have a huge impact on the market. Considering that the German government's sale of 49,858 bitcoins in 2024 triggered months of market volatility (the maximum drop was 32%), if this whale chooses to cash out, the potential selling pressure of 80,000 bitcoins may cause a more violent market tsunami.

According to a 2020 data study by Glassnode, there is only a 0.5% chance that Bitcoin that has not been moved for ten years will re-enter the market circulation, which means that addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than ten years (without any transfer records) are usually considered permanently lost. So why did the "sleeping" Bitcoin suddenly wake up? There are three main versions widely circulated in the market:

1. A Chinese national named Deng controls 80,000 bitcoins. He was previously sentenced to 16.5 years in prison for illegal fundraising for mining. He lost the right to dispose of his assets during his sentence and was released early this year through special channels.

2. The ancient miner accidentally recovered the hard drive that stored the private key.

3. The main force driving the rise of Bitcoin in this round is acting in concert with a certain whale. It has hoarded a large number of low-priced chips before the pull-up. The activation of Bitcoin this time is aimed at testing the market reaction, reducing the market's sensitivity to large-scale fluctuations, and preparing for the distribution of chips in the later stage.

From the current situation, version 3 is the most likely, mainly for two reasons: first, after the whale "accidentally" obtained 80,000 bitcoins, it simply transferred them to a new address and did not operate again. This operation mode is in line with the conventional security management behavior of large bitcoin holders; second, after the news leaked, the price of bitcoin in the secondary market only fell by 1.09%, and there was no sign of smart money running ahead. These two points show that the whale's intention to sell in the short term is not obvious, and the super main force did not regard the sudden activation of the ancient address as an uncontrollable factor.

On July 4, US President Trump officially signed the Big, Beautiful Act, marking the implementation of the large-scale tax cuts and fiscal spending plan. The passage of the bill means that the Trump administration has completely abandoned its fiscal austerity goals and has instead restarted and expanded its fiscal expansion policy during its first term. It is worth noting that compared with the $2.43 trillion deficit increase brought about by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act during Trump's first term, the Big, Beautiful Act is expected to increase the federal fiscal deficit by up to $5 trillion, significantly amplifying the scale of expansion.

Although the "Big Beautiful" bill may push the US debt to the brink in the long run, in the short term, the "Big Beautiful" bill will make the personal income tax and estate tax exemptions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, increase the standard deduction for single taxpayers by $1,000 and married couples by $2,000 (until 2028), and exempt tips, overtime pay, and some car loan interest from taxes, etc. These measures can increase residents' income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market in the short term, and the effect is comparable to direct cash distribution.

In addition to fiscal expansion, the adjustment of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) of the banking system may become another potential major positive. On June 25, 2025, the Federal Reserve issued a draft for comments on the proposed revised SLR rules, considering lowering the requirement for large banks (eSLR) from 5% to 3.5%, and may exclude low-risk assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds and central bank deposits from the leverage ratio calculation range.

According to the forecast of Treasury Secretary Bessant, the adjustment of SLR will be completed in the summer (June-August), which is expected to free up about US$2 trillion of balance sheet space for large US banks and lower the long-term yield of US Treasury bonds by 30-50 basis points.

The current macroeconomic policy mix of the United States is very clear: the additional debt created by the Big, Beautiful Act will be jointly borne by the banking system (through SLR adjustment) and the GENIUS Stablecoin Act (mainly to digest short-term debt), while the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut will provide basic liquidity support for this.

This policy loop will operate smoothly in the short term and is expected to continue to support the strength of risky assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a typical main uptrend stage, and short-term market noise only triggers intraday-level wash-out shocks. With the support of the ultimate group consensus, Bitcoin does not have the possibility of deep adjustments. It is expected that after a short period of consolidation, the price will continue the upward trend. The long-term target is still 127,600-137,500.