Bitcoin price crash risks loom for 2026

Market strategists are mapping out potential paths for a bitcoin price crash as technical patterns and macro risks converge on the months ahead.

Crypto Whale maps a possible macro bottom near $25,000

In an X post, analyst Crypto Whale argued that the monthly chart suggests the Bitcoin price could form a macro bottom near $25,000 sometime in 2026. According to his view, if history rhymes, such deep retracements often mark long-term accumulation zones rather than terminal breakdowns.

Moreover, he emphasized that this potential bitcoin macro bottom would not signal the end of the ongoing cycle. Instead, he framed it as a major reset before the next expansion phase, where aggressive selling exhausts and stronger hands gradually rebuild positions.

Crypto Whale forecast for the 2026 cycle

However, in another X update, Crypto Whale stressed that the Bitcoin market is not yet in a confirmed bear phase. He outlined how he believes the 2026 bull run is likely to unfold, with a short-term rally setting the tone for the coming months.

He stated that this month could see a Bitcoin-led rally across the crypto market, followed by a broad altcoin expansion in February. That said, his roadmap includes a bull trap in March, which he expects to trigger elevated volatility and bouts of panic selling as overleveraged traders are forced to exit.

Once that stress phase begins, Crypto Whale projects that May could usher in a full bitcoin capitulation phase. Moreover, he anticipates that a completed bear market confirmation might materialize in June, as sentiment turns decisively lower and speculative capital retreats from risk assets.

XWIN Research outlook on BTC trend and downside risk

This cautious roadmap arrives as research firm XWIN Research underlines that BTC has not yet clearly entered a new bullish trend. In their latest XWIN Research outlook, the firm described the current setup as a high-volatility range environment that is not decisively bullish or bearish.

Furthermore, XWIN Research raised the possibility that the Bitcoin price could slide to as low as $50,000 under worsening macro conditions. They argued this could occur if recession risks intensify, sparking deleveraging across risk assets and driving ETF outflows that push BTC below $80,000.

According to their scenario, such a breakdown would make the $50,000 region a realistic downside target rather than a remote tail risk. However, they also implied that this zone could start to resemble a btc long term accumulation area for investors with multi-year horizons.

BTC death cross points to possible drop toward $38,000

In parallel, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a recurring btc death cross on the weekly chart in a separate X post. If the pattern plays out again, he warned that the market could face a bitcoin price crash on the order of 50% to 60%, implying potential downside toward roughly $38,000.

This specific death cross occurs between the 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages. It first appeared in September 2014, when it preceded a 67% correction in the Bitcoin price. The signal then re-emerged in June 2018, March 2020, and January 2022, leading to drawdowns of 54%, 53%, and 64%, respectively.

Martinez argued that the zone between $50,000 and $38,000 is increasingly compelling from a long-term spot accumulation perspective. However, he cautioned that the market will confirm its next decisive move for the Bitcoin price in its own time, leaving traders to navigate an uncertain btc price volatility range.

Current market levels and volatility backdrop

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading around $88,700, according to CoinMarketCap data, with the asset up over the last 24 hours. That said, the distance between present levels and the highlighted downside targets underscores how fragile sentiment remains as technical and macro forces collide.

Together, the scenarios from Crypto Whale, XWIN Research, and Ali Martinez sketch a market still vulnerable to sharp drawdowns before any sustained new bull phase. Moreover, they suggest that while lower levels such as $50,000, $38,000, or even $25,000 may eventually offer opportunity, the path there could be marked by intense volatility and rapid shifts in market structure.