Prediction Markets Hit $702 Million in One Day Amid Oversight Growth

TLDR

• Kalshi led $702M prediction market volume with $465.9M traded in one day
• Kalshi’s 2025 trading volume grew 1,100%, hitting $23.8B across 97M trades
• Polymarket faces scrutiny after $32K bet on Maduro’s capture won $400K
• 70% of prediction market traders lose money, per blockchain analysis

Prediction markets posted a record $701.7 million in trading volume in a single day, with Kalshi contributing nearly two-thirds of the total. This trading milestone arrives during growing regulatory attention at both state and international levels.

According to Gate Research data on Dune Analytics, Kalshi recorded $465.9 million in trading volume. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Opinion together processed around $100 million. This figure surpassed the previous high of $666.6 million, set the day before.

Kalshi Growth in 2025 Drives Record Activity

Kalshi’s surge in volume follows strong 2025 performance. The company handled $23.8 billion in trades throughout the year. That marked more than 1,100% growth from 2024 and included about 97 million transactions, up 1,680% year over year.

December 2025 alone saw $6.38 billion in trading, fueled by contracts tied to sports outcomes. Kalshi’s rise has drawn attention from major financial platforms. Coinbase, Gemini, and MetaMask have added prediction markets to their services. This has brought further interest from Wall Street, and Kalshi now holds a multibillion-dollar valuation.

Polymarket has also gained value, though data analysis reveals that 70% of traders on prediction platforms lose money. These figures are similar to losses seen in other speculative retail markets.

Insider Trading Concerns in Venezuela-Related Bets

A large win on Polymarket has drawn scrutiny from both media and legal analysts. A user bet about $32,000 on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal just hours before it happened. That person gained over $400,000 after U.S. forces captured Maduro, according to Polymarket transaction records.

CBS News reported that the account was new, created in late December. It placed bets only on Venezuela before it was deleted. Stephen Piepgrass, a regulatory lawyer, said the situation “shows telltale signs” of insider activity.

Polymarket data showed that odds of Maduro’s exit were 6.5% on January 2, increasing to 11% before midnight. Prices surged before former President Trump announced Maduro’s capture. A second account with similar behavior earned $80,000.

State and International Restrictions Expand

U.S. states are pushing back against the prediction market industry. New York lawmakers are considering the ORACLE Act, which would ban contracts related to politics, sports, and stocks. It would also allow the attorney general to seek injunctions and monetary penalties.

Tennessee recently ordered Kalshi and others to stop offering sports-related contracts. At least ten other states have made similar moves. Some platforms have filed lawsuits, claiming federal registration under the CFTC gives them nationwide permission to operate.

Kalshi argues that its status as a designated contract market overrides state gambling restrictions. It has challenged cease-and-desist orders in federal courts across multiple states.

Outside the U.S., Ukraine blocked access to Polymarket on December 10. Officials called the platform an unlicensed gambling site. The ban followed concerns about geopolitical bets tied to Russia’s invasion. Polymarket is now blocked or restricted in 33 countries, including Germany, Australia, and the United States.

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