Bittensor Price Analysis: TAO Finds Its Balance After a Long Pullback – What Comes Next?

TAO is back in a zone where things finally feel interesting again. After months of drifting, fading, and generally going nowhere, TAO has started to move with intent. 

The push above the $290 area changed the tone almost immediately. It doesn’t mean the market is suddenly bullish across the board, but it does mean TAO is no longer stuck in a neutral phase.

That $290 level had been acting like a ceiling for a long time. Price kept running into it and getting pushed back down. Now that it’s been cleared, the question shifts from “can TAO bounce?” to “can it actually build something from here?” 

As Karamata pointed out, the real test still lies higher. The zone around $355–$360 is where the recovery either gains traction or runs out of steam.

TAO market cap behavior suggests sellers are backing off

Looking beyond price alone, the market cap data adds another layer to the story. Glassnode data shows TAO’s market cap holding steady in the low-to-mid $2 billion range and gradually pushing higher. That matters more than it might seem at first glance.

When rallies happen during heavy distribution, market cap usually leaks even as price spikes. That’s not what’s happening here. Capital appears to be sticking around. It supports the idea that this move is more than just a reflex bounce and that some participants are willing to hold rather than rush for the exit.

The drawdown-from-ATH data reinforces that view. TAO is still a long way from its peak, but the drawdown has improved from its worst levels. In simple terms, the market has stopped making new downside extremes. 

That shift is subtle, but it’s often one of the earliest signs that a trend is starting to stabilize. This doesn’t mean the TAO price is ready to sprint higher just yet. It means the damage phase may be ending, and that’s usually where real recoveries begin.

The daily chart shows what TAO still needs to overcome

Zooming out to the daily chart, the challenge ahead becomes very clear. The TAO price is moving up, but it’s still capped by a descending resistance line and sitting below the 200-day moving average. That long-term average has a habit of separating relief rallies from true trend reversals.

Until TAO can reclaim that area and stay above it, the move remains a recovery rather than a confirmed uptrend. That’s not a negative judgment. It’s just how structure works. Markets don’t usually flip from bearish to bullish in one clean step.

Daily TAO price chart analysis

There’s also a visible resistance zone overhead where price previously topped out before rolling over. That area lines up closely with the $355–$360 range that keeps coming up in discussions. It’s a zone loaded with old supply, and it won’t disappear quietly.

If TAO can work its way through that region, the chart starts to look very different. If it can’t, the market likely slips back into consolidation and forces patience again.

TAO 4-hour chart shows improving momentum, but no breakout yet

On the 4-hour chart, the TAO price is showing encouraging signs. It’s holding above a rising support line and staying above key short-term moving averages. Pullbacks are getting bought earlier than before, which suggests buyers are becoming more confident.

At the same time, the resistance zone overhead keeps doing its job. TAO has pushed into it, stalled, pulled back slightly, and then tried again. That back-and-forth is normal when price runs into a supply pocket. Sellers don’t vanish overnight. They get absorbed gradually.

4-Hour TAO price chart analysis

The risk is also easy to spot. If TAO loses that rising support and drops back below the short-term averages, the breakout above $290 starts to look less convincing. That wouldn’t destroy the larger setup, but it would likely mean more sideways action before the next attempt higher.

Why the $355–$360 area matters so much for TAO

If there’s one level that defines the next phase for the TAO price, it’s the $355–$360 zone. Clearing $290 was important, but it was only the first step. This higher band is where momentum either accelerates or stalls.

That area lines up with previous rejection points and sits near key moving averages. A clean break and hold above it would signal that buyers are finally strong enough to push through long-standing supply. 

What needs to happen next for the TAO price

The roadmap from here is fairly clear. As long as the TAO price holds above the former resistance near $290, the structure stays constructive. Buyers want to see pullbacks get defended and momentum remain intact on lower timeframes.

The real confirmation comes if TAO can push through $355–$360 and hold above it. That’s the level where the recovery stops looking fragile and starts to gain credibility. 

On the flip side, losing $290 would shift the tone again. It wouldn’t erase the recent progress, but it would likely push TAO back into range-bound behavior and delay any larger move.

According to CoinCodex’s 1-month TAO price prediction, the token could trade near $215.90, but the chart is doing most of the talking right now. As long as TAO keeps holding above the old resistance near $290, the structure still looks healthy.