ETH Technical Analysis Feb 1

Ethereum is trading at $2,442.95 with a 9.51% drop in the last 24 hours; although it carries short-term reaction buying potential with RSI (26.52) in the oversold region, the overall downtrend and bearish Supertrend signal dominate. Critical support at $2,250 is being tested, and a break could accelerate momentum below $2,000.

Executive Summary

Ethereum’s technical chart is forming under a strong downtrend; the price remains below EMA20 ($2,897), MACD shows a negative histogram, and RSI at 26.52 is in the oversold region. Volume at $35.40 billion confirms high selling pressure, and a break below $2,250 support could bring $2,000 and $1,000 targets into play; however, oversold conditions offer a short-term rebound opportunity. Bitcoin’s bear market is pressuring ETH, and a cautious approach is recommended in this risky environment.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

Ethereum is exhibiting a clear downtrend on 1D and 3D timeframes. The price traded in the $2,250 – $2,704 range with a 9.51% loss in the last 24 hours, and the current $2,442.95 level is positioned at lows signaling trend continuation. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with resistance at $2,907.06. Closures below short-term EMA20 ($2,897.76) confirm momentum loss. On the 1W chart, a broader consolidation is observed, but the overall structure remains dominantly bearish.

Structural Levels

Structural levels include 14 strong points in multi-timeframe analysis: 1D (1 support/3 resistance), 3D (3S/3R), 1W (3S/2R). The main support zone is $2,250 (score 74/100), which is the recent low and a volume-tested point. In case of a break, the next targets are $2,000 psychological support and $1,800 Fibonacci retracement. Resistances are listed as $2,678.80 (61/100), $3,015.86 (62/100), and $3,488 (62/100); these levels overlap with previous swing highs and EMA clusters.

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14) at 26.52 is in the classic oversold region (below 30) and close to signaling divergence; this is a positive sign for short-term reaction buying but may remain limited without a trend break. The MACD line is below the signal line, the negative histogram is widening, and downward momentum is accelerating. Stochastic is around 15%, confirming oversold conditions. The overall momentum profile is bear-dominated, but the low RSI level implies a local bottom formation.

Trend Indicators

The EMA series (20/50/200) is fully in bearish alignment: Price is 15% below EMA20, with EMA50 (around $3,100) as distant resistance. Supertrend(10,3) is bearish, forming resistance at trailing stop $2,907. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud, with a downward Tenkan-Sen crossover. The 1W Supertrend is nearing neutral, requiring a close above $3,000 for a long-term trend change.

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

Supports: $2,250 (74/100, strong volume profile), $2,200 (1W Fibonacci 0.618), $2,000 (psychological/200-day EMA). Resistances: $2,678 (61/100, short-term pivot), $2,907 (Supertrend), $3,015 (62/100, 3D swing high). These levels are supported by volume profile and order blocks; a close below $2,250 triggers a 1D bearish continuation pattern. Rejection above $2,678 strengthens short opportunities. Multi-TF confluence makes $2,250 the most critical level.

Volume and Market Participation

24-hour volume at $35.40 billion is unusually high, showing selling pressure confirming the decline (OBV in downtrend). Volume delta is negative, with aggressive sellers dominant. Volume cluster around $2,250 (high volume node) acts as a defense zone. Spike volumes during low liquidity hours (04:04 UTC) may indicate institutional selling. Overall participation favors bears, with buyers yet to enter; RSI oversold with volume increase could catalyze a rebound.

Risk Assessment

From the current price ($2,442), bullish target is $3,000 (RR 1:1.8), bearish $1,000 (RR 1:5.8); short-term short positions offer high reward but oversold risk exists. Main risks: Divergence from BTC (positive divergence), sentiment improvement from Ethereum Foundation’s $220 million security fund news. Breakout scenarios: Below $2,250 → aggressive short (stop $2,500); above $2,678 → long (stop $2,400). Volatility is high (9.51% daily), max drawdown potential 20%; portfolio 2% risk rule recommended. Be cautious with leveraged trades on Spot ETH and Futures ETH.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $78,800 with -6.28% drop is pressuring ETH; correlation at 0.92 is high. BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance weakening altcoins. Critical BTC levels: Supports $78,804, $75,770, $64,655; resistances $80,357, $83,160, $86,776. If BTC drops below $75,770, ETH $2,000 test accelerates; recovery above $80,357 gives ETH breathing room. ETH/BTC pair is declining, BTC leadership recommended for trades.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

Ethereum’s technical chart is consolidating under a downtrend; oversold indicators offer short-term rebound ($2,678 target), but a $2,250 break opens the path to $1,000. News flow ($220M security fund) is positive, but BTC dependency and high-volume selling dominate. Strategy: Wait for below $2,250 with short bias, long requires RSI divergence + volume confirmation. Long-term ETH bull structure intact, but 2026 Q1 bear market risk high. Investors should monitor closely on spot and futures platforms. (Word count: 1,248)