History Hints at Capital Rotation to Crypto

• Bitcoin nears bottom as targets hit; Tom Lee calls current levels a strong buying opportunity.
• Analysts Bull Theory sees a 2020-style setup as gold leads, hinting at future Bitcoin rotation.
• Bitcoin outlook hinges on ETF outflows and whether capital shifts from safe havens to risk assets.

Bitcoin is trading around $75,000 at press time, paring weekly losses to over 14%. Analysts assess macroeconomic trends and shifting capital flows, as Gold also dropped from the previous week’s all-time high. 

After declining from recent highs near $88,000, Bitcoin has tested the $75,000 level as a key support zone amid increased volatility across global markets, including commodities, equities, and digital assets.

Tom Lee: Bitcoin Bottom Is Here, “Fantastic Buying Opportunity”

On Monday, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told CNBC that Bitcoin may be near a bottom, with strengthening fundamentals possibly sparking a rebound. His team projected Bitcoin at $77K and Ethereum at $2,400 back in November 2025. 

With these levels materializing over the weekend, Lee suggests bearish momentum may be fading, and a recovery could be near. He called the current lows a “fantastic buying opportunity.”

Bull Theory Highlights Historical Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation

Separately, market analyst Bull Theory highlighted similarities between current conditions and the 2020 market cycle, particularly in the relationship between gold and Bitcoin.

In August 2020, gold peaked near $2,075 and declined by approximately 9–10% over the following weeks. Bitcoin initially fell alongside gold before reversing higher. Between September 2020 and April 2021, Bitcoin rose by more than 500%, while gold underperformed.

Bull Theory noted that the current cycle shows gold again outperforming Bitcoin on a relative basis. Gold has gained more than 20% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has lagged after its recent correction. According to the analyst, such periods have historically preceded capital rotation toward higher-risk assets, though timing remains uncertain.

Bull Theory also referenced macro data, including the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is above 50 in recent readings. Levels above 50 typically indicate economic expansion, a condition that has previously aligned with stronger performance in risk assets.

Maurizio Pedrazzoli Examines Bitcoin Priced in Gold

In a podcast, analysts at Maurizio Pedrazzoli channel focused on Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold rather than the U.S. dollar. On a BTC-to-gold ratio chart, Bitcoin is trading near levels last seen more than a year ago.

The analysts noted that Bitcoin’s value relative to gold has declined by roughly 50–60% from its cycle peak, placing it near the lower end of its historical percentile range. They noted that similar conditions in past cycles have coincided with periods of price stabilization rather than immediate reversals.

The analysts also pointed to gold’s recent move as unusually steep on higher timeframes. Historically, extended commodity price advances have slowed or corrected, which can alter relative valuations across asset classes.

ETF Outflows and Macro Factors Remain Key

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded sustained net outflows in recent weeks, with several sessions seeing withdrawals totaling hundreds of millions of dollars. The data reflects portfolio rebalancing amid higher yields and strength in traditional safe-haven assets.

The analysts emphasize that ETF flows should be viewed alongside broader macro indicators, including interest-rate expectations, dollar strength, and commodity performance.

Bitcoin’s next move may depend on whether capital remains concentrated in defensive assets or shifts back toward risk assets. Developments in gold prices, macro data, and investor flows are expected to play a central role in the coming months.

Related: Why Gold’s Boom May Not Signal the End for Bitcoin