Gold Price Forecast: Hits $5,000 as JPMorgan Predicts $6,300

Gold is trading near $5,055 per ounce as of writing, up 2.82% over the past 24 hours, signaling a gradual recovery after a violent correction. The rebound follows a dramatic plunge late last month that rattled global markets. Prices had surged to record highs amid geopolitical tension and macroeconomic uncertainty before reversing sharply. 

Traders now track whether this recovery can sustain momentum or pause for consolidation.

What Triggered the Sharp Decline?

Gold prices collapsed more than 9.8% on January 30, marking the steepest one-day drop since 1983. Selling pressure intensified after CME Group raised margin requirements on Comex gold futures to 8% from 6%. 

Silver margins rose to 15% from 11%, which forced leveraged traders to cut positions quickly. As a result, liquidation spread across precious metals and extended losses into the following sessions. The move underscored how positioning, not fundamentals, drove the speed of the decline.

Volatility Reaches Rare Extremes

Market behavior shifted sharply as gold volatility surged to levels rarely seen in modern trading. Bloomberg data showed 30-day volatility climbing above 44%, the highest reading since the 2008 financial crisis. 

Source: Bloomberg via X

That figure exceeded Bitcoin's roughly 39% volatility, an unusual inversion for an asset long viewed as a stable store of value. Gold began trading more like a speculative instrument during the selloff, even as it maintained strong long-term performance. 

Over the past 12 months, gold has remained up about 66%, while Bitcoin is down roughly 21%.

Asian Demand Sparks a Rebound

Gold rebounded strongly during Asian trading on February 3rd and 4th as buying interest returned after the extreme selloff. Spot gold climbed about 2% intraday before settling near $5055 as of writing, while silver surged as much as 6%. 

Platinum and palladium also posted gains. A softer US dollar helped ease pressure on dollar-priced metals. Meanwhile, Chinese demand returned to focus as buyers flocked to Shenzhen ahead of Lunar New Year holidays, signaling renewed physical interest at lower price levels.

Central Banks Anchor the Bull Case

Despite near-term turbulence, major banks continue to project higher gold prices over the medium term. JPMorgan lifted its end-2026 gold forecast to $6,300 per ounce, the highest among global peers. The bank cited sustained central bank buying and ongoing reserve diversification as key drivers. 

JPMorgan now expects central banks to purchase around 800 tonnes of gold in 2026, up from a previous estimate of 755 tonnes. Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, and UBS also maintain targets near or above $6,000, reinforcing confidence in structural demand.

Macro Risks Still Shape the Outlook

Geopolitical risks and uneven global growth continue to support gold’s strategic appeal. Investors remain alert to developments involving Iran after US President Donald Trump signaled potential talks on a new nuclear deal. 

Source: X

Any diplomatic progress could reduce safe-haven demand in the short term. At the same time, expectations for US rate cuts later this year and persistent inflation concerns keep gold relevant in diversified portfolios. These forces continue to shape price action across global markets.

Technical Structure Holds Firm

From a technical perspective, gold has retraced into key Fibonacci levels following its extended rally. Prices have respected a rising trendline while finding support near the 0.65 and 0.618 retracement zones. 

Source: CryptoMojo_TA via X

This structure suggests a phase of sideways consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Traders now watch whether gold can stabilize above these levels before attempting another move higher.

Correction, Not a Trend Shift

Analysts broadly describe the recent plunge as a sharp correction within an ongoing bull market. Fundamental drivers remain intact, while positioning resets after months of aggressive buying. 

Gold now faces a period of adjustment, but longer-term targets from major banks suggest the story remains far from over.