Robinhood (HOOD) Stock: What Wall Street Predicts for Thursday Earnings

TLDR

• Robinhood (HOOD) stock has crashed 35% year-to-date with shares dropping 30% in just five days as Bitcoin’s decline hurt crypto-related equities.
• Q4 earnings due February 10 show Wall Street expecting $0.62-$0.63 EPS with 30% revenue growth to $1.32-$1.35 billion despite lower year-over-year earnings.
• Key metrics show strong growth with net interest revenues up 46.1%, assets under custody doubling to $355.93 billion, and options revenue jumping 42%.
• Analysts maintain Strong Buy ratings with 14 Buy and 4 Hold recommendations, projecting average upside of 113% to $154.93 price target.
• Crypto weakness weighing on near-term results but expanding revenue mix from subscriptions and net interest income supporting long-term stability.

Robinhood stock has dropped to its lowest level of 2026 just days before the company reports fourth-quarter results. The selloff has been brutal and fast.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

HOOD shares are down 35% year-to-date. The past five days have been especially rough, with the stock falling approximately 30% as Bitcoin’s sharp decline dragged down crypto-exposed companies.

Wall Street expects Robinhood to post Q4 earnings of $0.62 to $0.63 per share when it reports on February 10. That’s down from $1.01 per share in the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected to grow 30% year-over-year to between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion.

The consensus estimate has been revised 5% higher over the past month. Analysts covering the stock have grown more optimistic despite the recent price action.

Revenue Breakdown Shows Mixed Results

Net interest revenues are forecast to reach $432.57 million, up 46.1% from last year. Transaction-based revenues should hit $809.88 million, marking 20.5% growth year-over-year.

Cryptocurrency revenues present a challenge. Analysts expect transaction-based crypto revenues to decline 19.8% to $287.06 million. This aligns with the Bitcoin weakness that triggered HOOD’s latest plunge.

Options trading remains strong. Revenue from options is projected to surge 42% to $315.34 million. Equities trading revenue is expected to climb 42.3% to $86.83 million.

Securities lending revenue is forecast to more than double to $55.77 million. Margin interest revenue should jump 100.5% to $182.45 million.

User Metrics and Asset Growth

Funded customers are projected to reach 27.12 million versus 25.20 million a year ago. Investors will watch closely to see if this growth is accelerating or slowing.

Assets under custody are expected to nearly double to $355.93 billion from $192.90 billion last year. This number matters because it shows how much capital users trust the platform with.

The company saw strong performance through the first nine months of 2025. Increased market volatility drove trading activity higher across multiple asset classes.

Wall Street Stays Bullish Despite Selloff

Analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating on HOOD with 14 Buy and 4 Hold recommendations issued in the past three months. The average price target of $154.93 implies 113% upside from current levels.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his Buy rating with a 120% upside target. He noted the stock is approaching attractive valuation levels but warned near-term volatility could create better entry points.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley also keeps his Buy rating with over 100% upside potential. He views Robinhood as one of the best long-term plays on retail trading growth.

Over the past month, HOOD has fallen 31.1% compared to a 0.5% gain for the S&P 500. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Investors will focus on user growth trends, management’s 2025 outlook, and commentary on crypto recovery potential when earnings hit Thursday. The company’s expanding revenue mix beyond crypto should provide more stability even if digital asset prices stay weak.

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