Rivian (RIVN) Stock Jumps 27% on R2 Launch Plans – Can the Rally Last?

TLDR

• Rivian stock surged 27% Friday after beating Q4 expectations and announcing its mass-market R2 SUV launching in Q2 2026 at $45,000
• UBS upgraded Rivian from Sell to Neutral with a $16 price target, though shares already trade 10% above that level following the rally
• The company expects 2026 deliveries of 62,000-67,000 vehicles, a 53% jump from 2025’s 42,247 deliveries, driven primarily by R2 sales
• UBS analyst Joseph Spak warns of limited upside potential with execution risks on R2 production ramp and potential R1 demand weakness
• Rivian’s partnership with Volkswagen generated $576 million in software services gross profit, helping narrow automotive segment losses to $432 million in 2025

Rivian shares exploded higher Friday as the electric vehicle maker posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and laid out an aggressive delivery forecast for 2026. The stock climbed roughly 27% in a single session.

Rivian Automotive, Inc., RIVN

The driving force behind the rally? Rivian’s new R2 SUV is set to hit the market in the second quarter. Priced just under $45,000, the vehicle targets the mass market and competes directly with Tesla’s Model Y.

That’s a sharp departure from Rivian’s premium R1 lineup, which starts above $75,000. The lower price point opens up a much broader customer base.

Rivian projects total 2026 deliveries between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles. That represents a 53% increase from the 42,247 units delivered in 2025. The company believes R2 will account for roughly 22,000 of those sales in the back half of the year.

More than 68,000 customers reserved an R2 within 24 hours of the initial announcement back in 2024, according to CEO RJ Scaringe. Demand appears strong on paper.

UBS Turns Less Bearish But Sees Obstacles Ahead

The post-earnings surge prompted UBS analyst Joseph Spak to upgrade Rivian from Sell to Neutral. He also lifted his price target from $15 to $16.

But Spak’s tone remained cautious. His upgrade wasn’t exactly a vote of confidence. It was more an acknowledgment that shares had already fallen far enough to offset some of the downside risk.

Spak highlighted several concerns in his research note. He expects R1 demand could soften as federal EV tax credits disappear and other regulatory support rolls back. Some buyers may also wait for updated driver assistance features launching later in 2026.

The delivery guidance assumes flat R1 and commercial van volumes compared to 2025. That means the entire growth story hinges on R2 execution.

Spak noted the company needs to deliver around 45,000 units in the second half of the year. That’s a steep production ramp for a vehicle just entering the market. Any supply chain hiccups or manufacturing delays could derail the forecast.

Wall Street remains split on Rivian. The stock holds a consensus Hold rating with eight Buy recommendations, eight Hold ratings, and four Sell calls. The average price target sits at $17.70.

Cash Burn Continues Despite Partnership Revenue

Rivian still burns cash and won’t reach positive EBITDA for several more years. The Volkswagen partnership has helped ease some financial pressure.

The joint venture generated $576 million in software and services gross profit during 2025. That revenue stream helped Rivian post an overall gross profit of $144 million for the year.

The automotive segment alone lost $432 million in 2025. That’s a major improvement from the $1.2 billion loss recorded in 2024. But the red ink keeps flowing.

CEO Scaringe acknowledged ongoing supply chain challenges during the earnings call. He said the company has learned from past execution issues. Whether those lessons translate into smooth R2 production remains to be seen.

The stock trades with a beta of 1.77, making it nearly twice as volatile as the broader market. Shares are down more than 10% year-to-date despite Friday’s massive rally.

Rivian closed Friday’s session above UBS’s new $16 price target by roughly 10%. That’s left Spak with minimal room for near-term upside in his model. He expects continued volatility driven by sentiment swings around delivery updates and production milestones.

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