Avalanche (AVAX) Price Prediction: Breakdown Pressure Persists Below $11.38 as Analysts Eye $10 Recovery or $7.13 Downside

AVAX trades near key $9.30 support after a breakdown, with analysts watching for a potential recovery towards $10.20 or further downside toward $7.13.

AVAX is currently trading around the $9.50 level, based on data from Brave New Coin, with price sitting near a short-term support zone after recent selling pressure. The asset has slipped slightly over the past 24 hours, reflecting a market that is still struggling to regain momentum after failing to hold higher levels.

Avalanche is trading near $9.53, down 1.28% over the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin

AVAX Breakdown Extends Towards Key $9.30–$9.50 Support Zone

A chart shared by Jesse Peralta shows that AVAX recently broke a rising trendline structure below, triggering a sharp downside move into the $9.50–$9.30 region.

This breakdown confirms short-term structural weakness, with the price losing higher-low support and shifting into a lower-high formation. However, the recent bounce from this zone suggests that buyers are attempting to hold the price near this demand area.

AVAX tests $9.30–$9.50 support after breakdown as buyers attempt a short-term hold. Source: Jesse Peralta via X

From a short-term perspective, a bullish breakout above the descending resistance could push AVAX towards the $10.00–$10.20 region. Failure to reclaim this structure would likely keep the price capped, maintaining downside pressure.

Elliott Wave Structure Points Towards Continued Downside Risk

A broader technical structure shared by Ace highlights that AVAX has completed a macro 5-wave impulsive move, topping near $36.87, followed by a multi-leg corrective phase. Price is currently trading below a key descending trendline resistance near $11.38, while forming a weak corrective bounce after completing a local 5-wave move into the $8.27 region.

AVAX remains below $11.38 resistance after completing a macro 5-wave cycle, with Elliott Wave structure pointing towards $7.13 and $5.61 downside targets. Source: Ace via X

As long as AVAX remains below the $11.38 resistance, the structure suggests continuation towards lower targets, with downside levels projected around $7.13 and potentially $5.61 based on the extended corrective framework.

Avalanche Price Prediction: Key Levels Define Next Move

From an Avalanche Price Prediction perspective, AVAX is now trading between critical levels that will determine its next direction.

On the upside, reclaiming $10.00–$10.20 would be the first signal of strength, followed by a potential move towards the $11.38 resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above this level would shift momentum and open the path towards higher retracement zones.

On the downside, a break below $9.30 would expose the $8.27 level, with further weakness potentially driving the price towards $7.13 and $5.61. This makes the current range a key decision zone for both bulls and bears.

Macro Structure Shows Long-Term Range and Recovery Path

A higher timeframe chart shared by Celal Kucuker outlines AVAX trading within a broad descending channel, with multiple historical rejection points along the upper boundary. Price is currently positioned near the lower region of this structure, with projected scenarios showing a potential sweep towards the $6.82–$5.76 zone before any meaningful recovery.

AVAX trades near lower channel support with potential sweep to $6.82–$5.76 before a broader recovery towards $14.98 and higher. Source: Celal Kucuker via X

If this base forms successfully, the structure suggests a gradual recovery path towards $14.98, followed by a larger breakout attempt towards $36.60 and potentially $49.89–$50.84 over the longer term. This aligns with a typical accumulation-to-expansion cycle, where prolonged consolidation near lower channel support precedes a larger bullish phase.

Institutional Developments and Unusual Activity Add to the Narrative

Beyond technical structure, Avalanche has also seen notable developments that could influence market sentiment.

Grayscale recently introduced an Avalanche Staking ETF (ticker: GAVA), highlighting growing institutional interest in the ecosystem. Increased accessibility and staking exposure could support long-term demand dynamics.

At the same time, an unusual transaction reported by Coinvo showed an anonymous wallet mistakenly converting over $50.4 million USDT into just $36,297 worth of AVAX on Ethereum, drawing attention to liquidity conditions and execution risks within the market. While these developments do not directly impact price structure, they contribute to the broader narrative shaping investor behavior around AVAX.

Conclusion

Avalanche AVAX remains in a structurally weak position in the short term following a confirmed trendline breakdown and continued lower-high formation. The inability to reclaim key resistance levels suggests that downside risk remains active unless momentum shifts.

At the same time, the presence of strong macro support zones and long-term channel structure indicates that AVAX may be approaching a broader accumulation region. This creates a mixed outlook where short-term weakness coexists with longer-term recovery potential.

Going forward, the $9.30 support and $10.20–$11.38 resistance range will be critical in determining the next directional move. A breakout or breakdown from this zone is likely to define whether AVAX enters a deeper correction phase or begins a recovery towards higher levels.