Circle stock faces pressure as rate cuts, lock-up expiry loom

2025/06/24 20:49

Circle stock price has gone parabolic after its highly successful initial public offering earlier this month.

Circle, trading under the ticker symbol CRCL, jumped to a record high of $298, bringing its market capitalization to $58 billion, slightly below the USD Coin (USDC) valuation of $61 billion. 

The surge in Circle stock has been driven by ongoing stablecoin hype, with more companies exploring launches of their own. Top U.S. banks are reportedly in talks to develop a stablecoin, while major retailers like Amazon and Walmart are also working on digital dollar products.

Meanwhile, Fiserv, a $94 billion company, is developing FIUSD, a stablecoin that will leverage infrastructure from Paxos and Circle and run on the Solana (SOL) blockchain.

Circle stock has also rallied after the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for the stablecoin market. Circle stands to benefit if Tether (USDT), the current market leader, fails to comply with the new requirements.

Circle stock faces risks ahead

Despite the rally, Circle stock faces several key risks. For one, the growth of USDC has stalled. Its market capitalization remains around $61.7 billion, roughly unchanged over the past few weeks.

On the positive side, USDC’s transaction volume and the number of active stablecoin addresses have jumped by 72% and 20%, respectively, in the past 30 days. Adjusted volume rose to $829 billion, while total addresses climbed to 9.7 million.

The other risk is that Circle has become highly overvalued, which likely explains why Cathie Wood has started to sell. Its market capitalization of $58 billion is slightly lower than its combined assets. It is also much higher than its 2024 revenue of $1.67 billion, implying the stock trades at more than 30 times sales which might scare away some invesetors.

There is also macro risk. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates soon. In recent comments, Fed officials Michele Bowman and Christopher Waller said they would support a rate cut at the July meeting.

Rate cuts would hurt Circle’s revenue model, as the company earns most of its income from investments in short-term bonds, whose yields will decline in a lower-rate environment. Additionally, CRCL stock may face selling pressure as the IPO lock-up period approaches its expiry in December, which would allow insiders to begin unloading shares.

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

DOJ Dismantles North Korea-Linked Crypto Theft Scheme, Defendants Stole Nearly $1M

DOJ Dismantles North Korea-Linked Crypto Theft Scheme, Defendants Stole Nearly $1M

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has charged four North Koreans for impersonating as remote IT workers and exploiting companies to steal crypto. The federal prosecutors noted that the operation could be a part of the DPRK strategy to fund its weapons program. In a “cyber-enabled revenue generation network”, perpetrators landed in remote IT jobs using fake and stolen identities. The group exploited their company’s trust to steal and launder over $900,000 in crypto, the DOJ announcement read. The federal prosecutors from the Northern District of Georgia have charged the defendants with a five-count wire fraud and money laundering indictment linked to the scheme. “This indictment highlights the unique threat North Korea poses to companies that hire remote IT workers and underscores our resolve to prosecute any actor, in the United States or abroad, who steals from Georgia businesses,” said U.S. Attorney Theodore S. Hertzberg on Monday. Fraudsters Target Georgia-Based Blockchain Firm, Serbian Crypto Company The case is being handled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and is part of the DOJ’s ‘DPRK RevGen’ plan that targets high-impact North Korea-linked illicit revenue generation rings. According to the investigation, the defendants initially operated as a team in the UAE in 2019. Between December 2020 and May 2021, these perpetrators joined a Georgia-based blockchain firm and a Siberian crypto company as developers. “Both defendants concealed their North Korean identities from their employers by providing false identification documents containing a mix of stolen and fraudulent identity information,” the DOJ revealed. In February 2022, two of the impersonated employers were assigned projects that provided them access to crypto. The defendants used that access to steal digital assets in two separate operations worth $175,000 and $740,000 at the time. They reportedly modified the source code of two employers’ smart contracts. DPRK Crypto Attacks Magnify North Korea has been developing novel and more sophisticated attacks on crypto firms in the recent past. In April, spies from the DPRK infiltrated the US corporate system to feed in a malware campaign targeting crypto developers. They used fake US firms and domains to post job interviews to trick developers into downloading malware. 🚨 North Korean cyber spies reportedly set up fake US firms to deploy malware targeting crypto developers, violating Treasury sanctions. #NorthKorea #CyberSecurity https://t.co/TvCmrspaep — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) April 25, 2025 Another sophisticated method to steal crypto is via Zoom meetings, and hiding malware in GitHub. According to Nick Bax of the Security Alliance, a threat group is working to steal data and funds through fake business calls on Zoom . The DPRK-linked players send messages in the chat saying they can’t hear audio, suggesting listeners click on a fake link. Last week, reports revealed that North Korea is targeting Indian crypto job applicants with malware to steal their data.
Share
CryptoNews2025/07/01 16:34